My head is addled, but can you tell me the answer to this?

[HollowTalk]

So Boris Johnson voted against Theresa May in the first two votes.

What exactly is the deal that he's hoping to make with the EU? I know he keeps talking about a deal and I know about the backstop, but other than that is he wanting a completely different deal to Theresa May?

I have burned out with Brexit and fear I shall soon be put away, far from a television and the internet, for my own safety.

The EU won't do any trade deals unless the backstop is reinstated.

But my understanding is, if we leave with no deal, a border will reappear in NI. The backstop was part of the WA transitional period, meaning that if a final deal couldn't be reached, then we could still be part of EU years later, hence avoiding any hard border, but the UK would still be in the EU. Which is why the ERG don’t like the backstop.

So unless we have WA and continue to be in the EU until the final deal is reached, how can there be a backstop?

What BJ truly wants & what he pretends to want are 2 different things.

He pretends that a simple solution exists that will enable a seamless transition period & into negotiations to get a FTA with EU, and that he wants to find this solution for UK.

What he really wants is to enjoy being PM for a bit longer.

All political careers end in failure. Just saying (it's a very small compensation to look forward to).

ps: I have impression that nothing can stop BJ delaying a GE until after 1 November. I'm not sure who is expert enough to tell us for sure on that point, though.

The backstop is the fallback position/safety net of NI staying in the Single Market (more or less) and the Customs Union. This prevents a hard border,
but places a border between NI and rUK. DUP went mad so Theresa May asked for the Customs Union part to be extended to the whole of the UK. More people went mad, because this prevents UK making its own trade deals.

The ERG just want out now, they said they won't sign up to the WA even if the backstop was dropped. I assume this is to do with money and the way they have invested theirs. It seems to be essential to get out without a transitional period. So they've bet on sterling falling or some such thing. The only other thing I can think of is that their affairs would be scrutinised under the new EU tax laws regarding off shore accounts if the UK is still in the transitional period.

Signing up to the backstop afterwards would remove any border infrastructure that had become necessary. There was border infrastructure there before and it's not there now.

But you need the WA to have the backstop!

No Deal doesn’t mean that everything is clear and settled once and for all. The UK and the rEU will still need to figure out their future relationship.

My understanding is that those pushing for No Deal believe the UK will be in a stronger position for these negotiations once completely out of the EU.

Their argument “they need us more than we need them” is based on the fact that the UK buys a lot more from the EU than it sells into the EU. So it should be in the EU’s best interest to give good conditions to one of its most important customers.

The flip side to the argument is that the people in the UK actually need and rely on these EU goods. So food, medicines, countless integral components and parts of goods produced here. If these suddenly become much more expensive from one day to the next it will be UK consumers who will have to pay the price (literally).

The effect would be much less pronounced for EU consumers as it will be much easier to replace any suddenly uncompetitive UK goods from one of the other EU countries.

No Deal proponents seem to be happy to throw UK consumers under the bus for the foreseeable.

To clarify, goods traded between the EU and UK would become instantly much more expensive in the case of No Deal because of the added tariffs. (The additional paperwork and delays would probably also be reflected in higher prices.)

This is my understanding at least - does anyone know how much the WTO tariffs are that would then apply?

'What does Johnson actually want?' is a very good question.

He wanted to be PM, more than anything, agreed?

We know he wrote all those Euromyth stories as a journalist just for shit-stirring basically, and we know he only made his mind up to back Leave rather than Remain at the last minute - I suspect as a completely cynical move to give himself the best shot at PM.

Then he lets TM attempt to build the cheese submarine, with predictable consequences.
He swoops in at the last minute, hero of the day...then what?

You don't become PM hoping to go down in history as the person who broke up the UK and condemned Little England to a future as an impoverished, irrelevant backwater, surely?

He must know what a disaster a chaotic Brexit would be, and he surely knows that even a controlled Brexit will screw the country over for a long time, except for his rich mates (I grant that might be an acceptable outcome for a Tory - but I'm not even sure his Tory convictions run that deep either)

But who better than good old floppy haired joker Boris to stand up in front of the TV cameras and say, 'Look guys, we had a really good go at this Brexit thing, but due to everyone else being crap, it just wasn't possible. Jolly disappointing, eh? Champers all round!'

Secret Remainer.
You heard it here first.
(Oh, but don't tell anyone because the plan relies on him being seen as rabidly pro-Leave )

Snowy, the back stop means that in the event there are no other arrangements, NI will have the same rules as the EU. After no deal, NI will not have the same rules as the EU. The EU will refuse to start any trade talks until the UK signs up to NI having the same rules as the EU. It's possible the US will do the same.

@TheHeathenOfSuburbia I really, REALLY hope you're right on this.

I'm liking Heathen's plan!

But also feeling pretty desperate about what the future holds and how so many people are walking blindly into it.

And to show how utterly surreal this country has become, people who have been worst affected by austerity, and for whom things will get even worse post no deal, will vote Conservative at the next GE. Because "we won", "out means out", and any expert opinion is countered by "fake news" or even just "bollocks".

And now this...

There are "very real, very live conversations happening at the moment" on whether or not the government should call an election "in the next 72 hours", says Political Editor
@BBCLauraK

mobile.twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1168489990923272192

I don't think BJ will tell us his plan just yet for it to be torn down by the remainers and the EU. He will leave it a bit later nearer the time of the EU summit in Oct.
But loads could happen before then!

Bionicname - tariffs vary massively according to the very specific product and are highly complicated. Their impact could also be on the fact that they are components/ingredients of finished articles - so would have a cumulative impact on the final price/cost.

Iirc, lamb has WTO tariff of 43% - but process foods including lamb have a different tariff

I don't think BJ will tell us his plan just yet for it to be torn down by the remainers and the EU. He will leave it a bit later nearer the time of the EU summit in Oct.

@Doubletrouble99 Do you really think he's got a plan that he's keeping to himself until minutes before the Halloween deadline?

There wouldn't be much point in producing a plan mins. before Halloween Hollowtalk. The EU would at least need to have time to considerate it.

Bionic: tariffs are listed in a massive (thousands of pages) document which you can find online. From a summary in a bbc article for instance jam is at 24%, olive oil at 30, oranges at 16%, onions 9.6....but the government has published a proposal to temporarily set those tariffs on import at 0. This means for a period of time they would not affect what we import- but we could not make different conditions for different countries, so if we say 0% on Eu tomatoes we also say 0% on Chinese tomatoes. they haven’t necessarily got the same agricultural standards, but with the delays of transport it might happen that its overall cheaper to get a delivery of tomatoes from turkey or the states (via plane) than from Spain...

As cherin says, the UK has said it will apply 0% tariffs and under MFN (Most Favoured Nation) WTO rules, in the absence of a signed trade deal, the 0% tariffs have to be applied to all countries.

This will have a devastating effect on UK based businesses across all sectors

Especially since the corollary is that the EU (and other countries) will also have to abide by MFN rules and therefore won't be unilaterally reducing their tariffs. Hence eg UK lamb will attract a 43% tariff based on the WTO tables - and the plans by the UK Government for a massive cull of sheep because the EU markets will have dried up (this is even before potential Non-Tariff Barriers are factored in )