Westminstenders: One Pepperoni Pizza Please. And a Milkshake To Go.

[RedToothBrush]

On the Eve of the EU Elections that we never met to happen, and we don't know what the next hour next mind day might bring.

Farage is enjoying the theatre of milkshakes. It means he gets attention and gets to play the victim. And avoid talking about his dodgy friends and even dodgier financing. The Brexit Party are polling so highly its possible he could be PM. And boy does he know it. The temptation is there and its too much to resist.

May has refused to resign so far tonight after a day of asking her to. The 1922 Committee refused to change the rules to help oust her - possibly because they don't want the next PM to be beset with challenges to the leadership at the drop of a hat. Graham Brady is seeing her on Friday... The ERG are not happy bunnies.

May is still apparently planning to plough on with the WAB with a referendum possibly attached. Though this remains to be seen.

Meanwhile Leadsom has just quit the Cabinet. She was one of the Brexit 'Pizza Club'. Rumours are this might be the Cabinet withdrawing support for her. Though Gove has said he doesn't intend to resign (tonight at least).

Rumour is that May's senior staff have abandoned her to let her make the decision to go. And rumours are that when Leadsom rang May to tell her she was leaving cabinet, May didn't tell her senior staff. This comes two weeks after rumours where that Phillip May was at the point of telling her it was time to resign. The rumours of course may be just that, rumours but it's hard to see how or why anyone would tell her to carry on now.

And so tomorrow. Who would vote for this utter shower of shit? Even if you were the most loyal of Tories?

The thing tomorrow is to get the remain vote out. It doesn't matter ultimately what people vote for. Every vote cast for remain keeps the Brexit Party popular vote down. Even if it doesn't win seats. And that is psychologically important.

Tomorrow make sure EVERYONE you know who is anti brexit party votes. More so if they are a Remainer voting for a Remain party, but also if they are solid Labour or the rarest of things, a true blue.

It MATTERS. Narratives will be set.

If you are not sure if you are registered to vote, please TRY ANYWAY. The worst case is you are turned away and have lost 20 mins of your life. But you might also be able to vote and that might change the course of events.

Talk to people tomorrow. Remind them. Make sure it's about preventing a hard right foothold. Apathy will destroy our futures. Being fed up of politicians so refusing to vote is actively shooting yourself in the face.

Who am I voting for?

Still no idea. But I will vote.

The one I saw about Boris was shared via pm only. It's not searchable, I don't think, on here.

Eastern Region so far:
Cambridge - 44% +4%
East Cambridgeshire - 38.2% +6%
Harlow - 34% -4%
Great Yarmouth - 31% -6%
St Albans - 47% +4%

SW so far
Bath & NE Somerset - 44% +6%
Bournemout - 36% +6%
Exeter - 41% +0.4%
Plymouth - 35% -2%
Stroud - 46% +4%
Torridge - 39% +0.5%
Wiltshire - 44% +7%

Wales so far:
Cardiff - 41.5% +10%
Carmarthenshire - 41% +5%
Denbighshire - 37% +5%
Merthyr - 29% +2%
Monmouthshire - 42% +9%
Neath & Port Talbot - 35% +3%
Vale of Glamorgan - 41% + 5%

East Mids so far:
Ashfield - 31% +1%
Bassetlaw - 30% -3%
Boston - 32% -0.5%
Derby City - 31% -3%
Daventry - 38% +3%
Lincoln - 32% +2%
North Kesteven - 34% +2
South Holland - 32% -1%
South Kesteven - 36% +4%
West Lindsey - 34.5% +3%

Not seeing too many results from other regions yet.

Ah fuck I see I was totally unaware of the latest news 😩 I've not watched the speech. Not sure I want to but she cried!! I always cry seeing others cry and have just had something upsetting happen at home so I'd definitely cry. From reading your comments, it seems she's broken. She's held on all this time when she should have gone, and she's finally realised it's over and it's broken her. I feel sad but I have no sympathy considering what has happened on her watch. I for one am £250 a month down but many others are homeless, ill or dead.

I can't be happy that she's gone as someone worse will take her place but I'm relieved as she was has fucked this up so spectacularly. Maybe, just maybe a new PM will sort this shit show out. I hope with all my might that brexit is cancelled though.

The New Yorker
@NewYorker
The possibility that Boris Johnson may indeed become Prime Minister is one of the many measures of the current reckless unseriousness of British politics.

The number of votes cast within Melton Borough in the EU Parliamentary election was 14,249.This represents a turnout of 36.7% The Count will take place on Sunday evening. Declarations of both the local result & the result for the East Midlands Region will take place after 10pm.

+5% turnout on 2014.

Jennifer Rankin
@JenniferMerode
In case anyone seriously thinks the EU is about to change everything for a PM Boris Johnson...

EU official: “We would be really stupid if we had refused the reasonable negotiators and now suddenly reopen the door to Boris. I don’t think so.”

Edmund Dean @edofmund
Melton had a low turnout in 2014 but a high Ref vote turnout. This is a 5.1% increase on 2014. One of a handful of Leave areas which have had a stronger turnout so far...

Melton is north east leic around the Melton Mowbray area.

Sunday Independent @thesundayindy
There we have it. The number of votes cast in Cornwall stands at 175,475, giving a turnout of 41.4%, 5.4% up from the 2014 elections #EuropeanElections #localpapersalwaysfirst

Now I'm thinking about pork pies.

I would like Amber Rudd for Tory leader but that's never going to happen.

Me too Cherrypi. Of the ones that have declared.

"strategy will be to call it "No Deal" and reverse back into most of the WA."

There are no signs that the E27 will agree to reopen the WA negotiations, especially the backstop.
All 27 countries would have to agree, in order to give the EU negotiating team it's terms of reference
So far, only about 3 leaders - like Farage's fascist chum Orbán - have made vaguely sympathetic noises about that.

The comments from the main players have always been that the alternative is No Deal

After a No Deal Brexit, the 3 main planks of the WA - backstop, exist bill, expat rights - are prerequisites for negotiations

To change this, the UK would have to offer the EU something that they want, that has not been offered before

• and I can't think of anything.

All that looks possible - from the EU side, at least - is Remaining in an outer circle of the EU, with guarantees of no further integration for the UK, no Euro etc

However, Cameron refused this back in 2015 because it would mean the UK not participating in decisions about further integration

I don't know if Cameron's decision could be walked back

The likelihood of No Deal is v high,
because anything else requires the new PM or the E27 to completely reverse their position

That would take a hell of a lot, to avoid the appearance of capitulation, weakness and humiliation

It looks like turnout for the EU election is likely to be higher than 2014 from what is coming out so far.

But we also know that Labour and Cons are looking like they are doing badly.

This is consistent with a v high Brexit Party result and a high LD result.

The thing is of course, come 1st November, assuming we are still in the EU, we will have a whole new set of negotiators. It's bound to make some sort of difference.

If we are out, well, it will still make a difference.

Germany

Out of 96 EP seats, about 20 in total expected for Eurosceptics, 12 of which are for the AfD

That 20 is only an increase of 4 since 2014, which is before populism really took off.

As I've said before, it is the rise of the Greens the last few years which is really impressive,
but that is not so sexy for media reports.

New EP

dormant That poll of polls you linked upthread agrees with EP estimates in Germany:

out of 751 EP seats, roughly 50 for Farage’s far right populist group, Brexit+5-star

250 for Eurosceptics
almost all of whom - except for the UK - want reform of the EU, especially wrt refugee policy, not exit from it.

Rough groupings:

390 centrist parties
215 right
120 left

peregrina Makes no difference for us to have a new set of negotiators, unless there are actually to be new negotiations

So far the EU has said it's the WA or No Deal (or Revoke)

As has been posted, it would be really odd to concede to PM Boris - whom they despise and resent for the insults - or any other ERG PM, what they wouldn't give May

@davidallengreen
Well, EU membership is still there and Theresa May is not.

I didn't say anything about new negotiations. But assuming the WA were to pass then the PD is up for negotiation with completely different people.

Yep, maybe negotiations within the UK could proceed better during the honeymoon phase of a new leader

If a PD could be agreed, then the WA could then be passed

• imo it would be in that order, PD agreed then WA, if we are to avoid a No Deal Brexit

BigChoc but if Boris No Dealed us, then after a shortish time (enough for grumbles at the least but not long enough to enforce any real change - well this is the Tory party after all! - such as new regulations that would take us out of line with EU) he might offer to sign WA as long as he could call it something else and make superficial changes and EU promised not to broadcast the fact it is the same as TM's deal.

Or of course, that could be plan a) with plan b) if EU don't agree, being to sell out to USA. It could be ballsed up very easily either way. Especially by BoJo.

The EU have offered several choices for the PD, so the new PM could basically go for anything that doesn't contradict any of the main planks of the WA

I personally think who ever is coming won't want to talk about it at all for any length of time, which is why I think we will be No Dealing whoever comes next.

BoJo is too much of a performer not to see a stage and plant himself in the centre of it.

He'll play to the Leavers first then "unite UK" with a remainer finale.

My French conversation group this morning all voted, and we shame-facedly agreed it was the first time we had voted in EU elections. (Aside, I think deHoult system is the problem more than apathy as we are used to voting for a named person within a party). Several tactical voters, all remain.
I think remainers are quietly voting, I think BP is a big noise.
We shall see Sun.

Oh. Having just listened, she's not so much upset as angry. That was anger and angry tears. Anger that everyone has said "you're shit, you need to go." I hear in that that she feels forced out, it's not a choice, but she's going before she is forced out. The only sadness she feels is for herself because she knows that most are against her and her handling of this. She has failed and she knows it. It's a shame she didn't see fit to right her wrongs when she had chance.