Price rises- by how much?/ Helping elderly parent prepare for no deal

[SparklySneakers]

Sorry if this has been covered already.

I'm wondering by how much food, fuel and household essentials/toiletries are likely to go up. I know there's nothing definite but a rough idea would be helpful to help prepare for the increases.

Those who recognise my name will know I'm already prepping and have (or will have) about 4 weeks worth of food, more of household essentials/toiletries and a full freezer.

My concern is mainly my mum who is fairly fussy about food, very traditional meat and two veg and potatoes lady. She is on a very limited income (state pension) and I'm trying to prepare her for the worst case scenario of no deal. She has a small stash of tinned and packet food but isn't one for rice or pasta or noodles or the things that are cheap, quick and easy to cook and are long life.

Today she's said she needs prioritise getting the car fixed over stocking up which worries me. I've added extra things to my online shop for her and will help her out but I'm a single SAHM with 3 children so my ability to help is limited.

She's got food for a couple of weeks, loo roll, bottled water, some fruit juice, tea, coffee, long life milk. I've stocked her up on treats such as chocolate and crisps and encourage her to add extra items each time we shop (we usually shop together- it's the highlight of our week )

I'm a veggie and have never bought meat or fish so have no idea how much it costs except to know it's expensive.

Any knowledge/suggestions much appreciated.

Oh and I'll get her to request her prescriptions early too so she has a good supply.

Nobody knows for sure.

An extra 5 to 10% seems to be bandied about a lot. For No Deal.

Obviously if a deal was struck and trade continued as normal with the EU it would be a lot less, depending on the terms.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46439969

If your mum is a traditional cook, she may well be Ok as she will tend to cook seasonally so will buy mostly British grown/reared meat and veg.

Remember we do produce 50% of our food and most will suit the traditional meat and 2 veg. cook.

I think the main worry is probably her having enough to see her through any immediate supply chain problem. If the prices go up because of no deal, they’re not going to suddenly go back down you couldn’t possibly stock up enough to keep you going through a mess that could take months and years to sort out.

No idea by how much prices will rise I'm afraid but it's sensible to help her stock up given she's older and on a limited income.

Regarding what to buy - does she have a freezer? If so I'd suggest buying some meat such as mince, chops etc and freezing. Frozen fish fillets aren't as good as fresh obviously but they're fine and cost less. Again it depends on freezer space.

As she's a meat, potatoes and veg person maybe a big sack of spuds bought in March? They keep well if stored somewhere cool and dark. Don't forget things like gravy and stock cubes.

You could stock up on frozen veg to tide her over if there's a shortage of fresh stuff.

Bottled water is a luxury rather than a necessity surely... the water that comes out of the taps is perfectly safe?

ColdNeverBotheredMeAnyway the bottled water has been bought by me in case of any issues with the water supply. Fingers crossed it's not affected but rather have some to be in the safe side. A couple of times in the last year or two we've had burst water mains which have meant no water for 12 hours or so therefore I'd realised it was a good idea to have some in just in case.

She does have a small freezer, yes. She freezes meat and fish all the time. It's more the price of that which is a worry.

I love the idea of a sack of spuds but her garage is the only place she could keep them and it's damp in there. Same with mine. And where would I buy a sack of spuds from?? We used to live in the country when I was little and I remember seeing them then but not for about 30 years now.

Farm shops often have sacks of spuds... we used to keep ours in the downstairs loo as light normally off and dry and not overly warm

My late Mum and Dad ate tinned veg. I'd also look at what breakfast cereals they like because most are fortified with vitamins- my Mum's nutrition person said don't dismiss these as half decent food options. Even the sugary ones.
Powdered milk.
Do they eat tinned fish?

She's got some tins of tuna but has used some already. I'm trying to get her to think of her stash as not there and to shop as though she hasn't got it. I'll get her some more tuna and salmon. And tinned mushy peas as she'll eat those.

Would she eat corned beef and fray bentos pies? They are fairly cheap and passable (I would eat them and have stocked up). You can make corned beef hash using instant potato mash (smash). I know you were asking about how much prices are going to rise, I'm not sure about that but just adding some suggestions your mum might like.

There was a radio programme on a couple of weeks ago where they had a panel of experts. They were predicting price rises of circa 20 percent. They also said to keep in mind that this would affect all items since some of the costs will be increased overheads for the shops which they will pass on. Some items are expected to be particularly affected such as cheese where increases of up to 38 percent were being talked about.

I think the comment above about the fact that she’ll be ok if she eats seasonally is sensationally naive. Firstly we don’t grow much at this time of year. Whilst the country might be 50percent sufficient in food, that is mainly in the summer and autumn with very little produced in late winter and early spring. Currently you’ll be lucky to get rhubarb, cabbage and some early broccoli and nowhere near enough to feed the whole country. Secondly, do you think all those who would generally be eating food from overseas will let their families starve whilst those who like beef, carrots and potatoes are fine . If there are no aubergines, peppers and tomatoes, everyone is suddenly going to be wanting extra carrots and potatoes and they don’t grow overnight...

redhat - I think your comments are naïve, do you think we import root veg in the winter? Obviously you don't live in the Fens where these crops are grown and stored.

But are uk producers geared up for supplying more of the market than they do now? Stuff takes time to grow and who is prepared to make a major investment with no clear idea of whether there are customers.
Any swede recipes, btw? I'm growing some this year.

Very hard to predict price rises IMO.

If sterling falls, then prices will rise, including locally produced foods, because farming uses chemicals and fuel which are priced in dollars and will become more expensive in pounds.

Prices might also be driven up by shortages - and this is much harder to predict. Supermarkets may initially be reluctant to raise prices because of the risk of being seen to "take advantage" of Brexit - but ultimately if there are shortages, prices will either have to rise in the shops (to choke off demand), or shelves will empty and a black market will develop.

She eats potatoes, peas, carrots, broccoli, cauliflower, tomatoes, lettuce, runner beans, cabbage, mushrooms. All year round.

Will have to look at what is available from local farm shops but they are expensive.

We used to live in Shropshire and would pick our own peas, broad beans, strawberries and buy cauliflower and potatoes from the same place down the lanes. Dad grew his own runner beans.

Ok so get her multiple tins of peas, carrots, beans tomatoes and mushrooms. Packet of cut and come again lettuce seeds. Meat cheese, butter, broccoli and cauliflower in the freezer. Bread mixes plus maybe tinned soups for lunches. Porridge and sinevling life milk. Plenty of tea and biscuits.

Having said that, now that I know we have enough potatoes and carrots stored in secret warehouses in the Fens to feed the entire 66.02 million population of Britain indefinitely I can sleep easy...

Sinevling long life!

There was a radio programme on a couple of weeks ago where they had a panel of experts.They were predicting price rises of circa 20 percent... Some items are expected to be particularly affected such as cheese where increases of up to 38 percent were being talked about

Those percentage figures appear to be tariff rises, not necessarily the extra cost passed on to customers; the average tariff rise for food has been estimated at 22% - with French wine as low as 4% and Irish cheddar as high as 38%. If the cost of Irish cheddar increases by 38%, consumers will simply buy a different brand of cheese.

Dec 2017: Agriculture minister George Eustice told the environment committee:"What would probably happen, if everybody put up such a tariff wall, is that we would consume more of the cheese we produce, rather than send it to Ireland, and Ireland would be selling us less cheese"

The UK currently exports £320m of cheddar to Ireland every year and imports £389m of cheddar, he told the committee (Ireland accounts for about 80% of all cheddar imports, according to the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board)

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42427812

In the meantime, Irish cheddar exporter Ornua has moved six months' supply of cheddar cheese to UK warehouses as a Brexit buffer ;
www.independent.ie/business/farming/dairy/countrys-largest-exporter-of-dairy-stockpiles-cheddar-mountain-as-a-brexit-buffer-37781921.html

It may be that we start eating more lamb instead of beef - we import lamb from New Zealand (and Australia) and we export lamb to the EU;
beefandlamb.ahdb.org.uk/markets/industry-reports/uk-statistics/

In 2017, we wasted and threw away 5.8m fresh potatoes a day!

www.theguardian.com/environment/shortcuts/2017/nov/08/dont-dump-your-potatoes-use-these-easy-recipes-for-your-freezer

Right, I've just done an online shop and added twice as many beans and tomatoes as she's asked for, big bags of flour instead of small, an e tea bag of pasta, and have added unasked for tuna, salmon and corned beef. I can't believe that one tin of salmon is over £3!! I couldn't afford not to be veggie!

My elderly parents eat a lot of tinned food by choice. Their stash is on top of kitchen cupboards, so not easily accessible and they are less likely to raid the stores. For those of us raised in the 60s and 70s, it’s flashback time. Tinned steak, tinned potatoes, tinned veg of all sorts.
And dried stuff. Mum is delighted that Smash are still going.

Doubletrouble99
redhat - I think your comments are naïve, do you think we import root veg in the winter? Obviously you don't live in the Fens where these crops are grown and stored.

Root veg are probably picked mechanically - I'm vague about the mechanics of agriculture - but the lack of European agricultural workers is going to impact on the supply of home-grown vegetables eventually, surely? The 2,500 visas that are being issued to Asian agricultural workers won't make much of a dent in the normal figure of 35,000 that are needed.

It seems very perverse, almost malicious, that instead of allowing in the European seasonal workers, who normally do the hard grind of picking (I wouldn't do it!) your government is prepared to bring people in from thousands of miles away, from countries with a different climate.

I'm just delighted that we have 1 billion potatoes secretly stashed in the Fens. That will give everyone about 15 potatoes....

Potatoes are one crop the U.K. is genuinely more or less self sufficient in (I'm a bit uncertain about whether this is also true for processed potato products).

However the U.K. seed production industry - which is located mostly in Scotland - will be severely affected by a no deal Brexit as it mostly supplies Europe and, for plant health reasons, potato producers in the EU can't import seed potatoes from outside the EU.

I imagine that potatoes are picked mechanically, as well, so there won't be a hitch in production.

A lot of our potatoes are imported from the UK - about 50,000 tonnes annually between GB and NI.