Westminstenders: A vote too far?

[RedToothBrush]

The ECJ have ruled that the UK can unilaterally revoke A50.

There maybe lots of other news today, but that's the big one.

May has her big vote tomorrow. Or does she.

Will she survive until the end of the week?

Britain's brand is booing the nasty man George Osborne the face disability benefit cuts at the Paralympics then voting for the same fuckers again

We've been idiot's for a whole it seems.

No, this would do the opposite. It would anger Remainers, and completely shaft the ordinary Leavers.

So it would unite about 80% of the people against the hardline Brexiteer prime minister. Result.

While or a whole while

Manifesto promises are broken on a regular basis. They are not legally binding.

I’ve yet to see a government that fulfilled all the promises made in their manifesto.

without a clear mandate as their manifesto was based on honouring the result of the referendum.

May has tried to honour it, so as far as I can see she has discharged the mandate. The trouble is that the Leavers don't like it.

I just pity the poor person in Brussels watching Muppet TV (sorry, House of Commons broadcasts) for the last 3 years and wonder if they have to be given tranquilisers to keep them calm.

Pineapple. My body would like to go back to the mid 1970's if your time machine is working.

Legally, there is no barrier to the PM revoking A50

• the PM can revoke anytime before Brexit Day with a simple letter to the EU Commission

The HoC is neither required for this, nor able to do it themselves.

No manifesto is legally binding and the referendum itself was only advisory.

Politically is another matter re Revoke:

A large vote for Remain would give complete justification for Revoke
BUT have recent events changed public minds sufficiently ?
A PV would be very unwise if there is a possibility of the No Deal disaster being chosen

Also, some Leavers would be angrier at having a 2nd referendum

• vote again because we didn't like the 1st result -

than they would by the HoC just deciding that Brexit would be too damaging unless enough red lines are scrapped to make it pointless.

The govt in charge would be abandoned by some Leavers whatever procedure they choose to Revoke;
also by the hardcore No Dealers if the govt manage to pass the WA, or even get a new EEA 3rd pillar WA

Jeez. How does Steve Baker think he can win the support of the Hoc for a hard brexit. They will vote down no deal. They will vote down Canada + and so would the EU if it doesn't contain exactly the same backstop. So he threatens to shoot us all in the head first if the the EU won't capitulate. Guess what Steve, the EU won't back down on NI for you. It's just beyond stupid,

Actually the most damning thing about TM's Withdrawal Agreement is that it is a clear breach of the 2017 Tory Manifesto for an election which was called by the Tories to give a specific Mandate for their Brexit Plan.

When they failed to get a majority mandate they allied with the DUP. That is the Parliamentary mandate legacy of the 2017 GE. The WA is a clear breach of everything the DUP stands for.

Plaice mat king

For anyone fretting about the markets yesterday:
£ back on the Up
M&G calling the UK share market a "once in a lifetime opportunity"
"Valuations are so cheap now that you're having the ability to buy good-quality companies at unprecedently cheap levels."

Invoking A50 again, soon after revoking it, would presumably be classed as the "abuse" the ECJ referred to.
So it would likely bring a prompt referral of the UK to A7 for suspension of EU rights

There would be no better deal from the EU unless the UK drops its red lines - why should there be ?
The UK has lost a LOT of friends, goodwill & influence, so EU members are likely to offer a worse deal, e.g. Gibraltar, fishing

The 3 prerequisites remain - in particular the NI backstop remains - so any further attempt - before Irish Reunification is pointless

It would also be pointless, because another 2 years of the Uk govt squabbling with itself, trying to decide what it wants, but hampered by massive ignorance .... would result in a similar humiliation to now

Leavers have their shot at Brexit and they either manage it this time, or wait decades, because Reunification is far from imminent.
They would be sensible to ask the EU to change the PD to a 3rd pillar and add on a few more years to the transition

If the govt are forced to Revoke, it's very unlikely that demographics would enable a Leave vote in a future referendum.

Can I just say, that in these bleak times, there is still some levity to be had?

Hugo Rifkind @hugorifkind

The thing is, the best way to understand Theresa May’s predicament is to imagine that 52 percent of Britain had voted that the government should build a submarine out of cheese.

Now, Theresa May was initially against building a submarine out of cheese, obviously. Because it’s a completely insane thing to do.



However, in order to become PM, she had to pretend that she thought building a submarine out of cheese was fine and could totally work.


"Cheese means cheese," she told us all, madly.



Then she actually built one.



It’s shit. Of course it is. For God’s sake, are you stupid? It’s a submarine built out of cheese.


So now, having built a shit cheese submarine, she has to put up with both Labour and Tory Brexiters insisting that a less shit cheese submarine could have been built.



They’re all lying, and they know it. So does everybody else. We've covered this already, I know, but it’s cheese and it’s a submarine. How good could it possibly be?



Only she can’t call them out on this. Because she has spent the past two years also lying, by pretending she really could build a decent submarine out of cheese.



So that’s where we are.



On balance, I this analogy works fine, perhaps except for the submarine and cheese parts, which need a little work.



Thread ends.

"Everything the DUP stands for"

You mean "the Party of NO"
the party of Unionist domination over Catholics
The party with murky far right and terrorist connections.

We should not tolerate 65 million people and an HoC with 650 MPs being dominated by the tiny DUP
a party with only 10 seats, 290,000 votes and 1,000 members !

It's absurd and disgraceful

Hugo Rifkind 😂😂
Best Brexit analogy EVER !

Probably need to start a new thread by the end of the day.

Cheese means briemain or briexit? This is too Gouda to be true.

For those fretting about the markets. M&G market funds, they use sales techniques to sell them. They say they are at great valuations (presumably based on historic yield or p/e measures.) This tells you nothing about future risk. If tarriffs are introduced yields and earnings go down, if the consumer tightens their belts.. yields and earnings go down. If house prices drop and people are laid off yields and earnings go down. All of the above scenarios are likely in a hard brexit no deal environment as is inflation. So if i were you I would avoid UK plc (equities and fixed income) and be short sterling (if possible), instead be long gold and overseas bonds and equities. And I would bet that JRM, Crispin Odey, John Redwood and every other disaster capitalist brexiteer are doing just that. The UK could get seriously burned here

😂 thanks for sharing that element

Bigchoc the Tories (including 13 Scottish ones) plus the DUP is what gives the mandate. It is disingenuous to selectively quote my post.

Re Revoke and then Leave I don't see the issue. The EU have already floated Extend to negotiate. The only difference is that it would be the UK (as the Member State using the provisions of Art 50) doing the driving. The ECJ judgement explicitly stated that the EU has no power to dictate whether a Member stays or goes or to force anyone out - use of suspension of voting rights etc would imo be an abuse.

The route which I think could get them off the hook would be:
1) Vote to revoke because the country is in deadlock
2) Hold a GE with all parties nailing their colours to the mast on Tony Blair's Remain vs Leave straight choice.

I almost agree, except I think asking the EU for an extension in order to hold a GE would be a better option and prevent the "abuse" issue from the ECJ ruling.

I just can't get on board with the idea that a Parliament can have a house full of MPs (pretty much) all elected on the basis that Brexit is going ahead to then change tack completely. Legal or not, I think it would be fundamentally wrong.

JFM nailing his colours firmly to the mast this am.

“my top three are Boris Johnson, David Davis and Dominic Raab, and of those three the most charismatic is Boris Johnson and we need a charismatic leader”

Daddy thanks for the boilerplate - had sort of assumed we were all grown ups

Bigchoc forgot to say I don't understand why you think leaving would require a further Referendum? We didn't even "need" the first one not that any of the politicians paid any attention to the result anyway.

So what exactly do you think their mandate now is howabout? Ed Vaizey in his acceptance speech at the Count for last year's election said that it meant Hard Brexit was dead, and that it was a vote against austerity.

Wasn't remaining in the Customs Union a Tory manifesto pledge ?