Westministers: Happy New Year?

[RedToothBrush]

And so we enter a New Year full of hope that things might just be about to recover from our national nervous breakdown... or perhaps not.

As we have Damien Green ejected from his role as Deputy PM over allegations of inappropriate conduct towards woman and use of porn at the end of last year, 2018 sees a bright new progressive dawn with the appointment to the role of universities regulator of Toby Young. A man who has deleted 20,000 tweets including many which are inappropriate and offensive to women, is a fan of eugenics and hates the working class and disabled.

Meanwhile the NHS is facing a crisis which is totally unexpected to the government and couldn't possibly have been planned for by a man who has over seen it for over five years. Which naturally bodes really well for Brexit planning.

We are apparently planning to join the TPP. Never mind geopolitics we can move the UK to the Pacific region.

We still are not ready for trade talks because the Cabinet can not agree on anything. Not that it sounds like they have actually discussed anything along these lines yet.

Rumours are that the Cabinet - including arch leavers such as Gove - are leaning towards supporting May and a softer option, despite the disgust of Johnson, who once again is the subject of malicious chatter about his sacking in a forthcoming Cabinet Reshuffle.

There is talk of further Tory Party war with the revelation that membership of the party has dropped to a core of just 70,000 hardline authoritarian men, most of whom are over 60. Tory HQ now wants to (perhaps with some good reason to prevent the loons) rewrite the constitution and limit the power of local associations to select candidates. The Tory party is now lining up to be a power struggle between internal authoritarians, who don't like democracy voices or structure.

Meanwhile the Labour Party membership now apparently overwhelmingly looks upon staying in the customs union and single market favourably and is in favour of a second referendum. In opposition to the leadership who are utterly committed to Hard Brexit. Much to the annoyance of Lord Adonis who is pitching a fit about government corruption and incompetence and being accused of being elite because he going skiing. Unlike of prominent Leavers who are in touch with the working class.

And finally Nigel Farage has got a meeting with Barnier. Farage, unlike Clegg, Clarke and Adonis, will not be accused by the Right Wing Press of undermining the government's negotiating position because...

It appears that we are in for another year of Brexit nonsense then.

We've not even heard mention of Gibraltar yet.

Boris Johnson‏Verified account
@BorisJohnson
The US is the biggest single investor in the UK - yet Khan & Corbyn seem determined to put this crucial relationship at risk. We will not allow US-UK relations to be endangered by some puffed up pompous popinjay in City Hall.

Sam Coates Times
‏*@SamCoatesTimes*
Boris Johnson here appears to reject the reason Trump gave for cancelling visit. Does Boris know more than the rest of governemnt?

Boris Johnson is one to talk about being puffed up and pompous

Wasn't Boris the puffed up popinjay in city hall?

Boris Johnson giving his usual masterclass in diplomacy, there. Never let international relations get in the way of party political point-scoring.

Actually the UK is the biggest single investor in the US, so that should give us some dibs there.

Also if you aggregate UK investment by trading bloc, then the EU is the biggest single investor in the UK waaaaaaaaaaaay beyond the US (and US+Canada).

Sorry Brexiteers, more of that pesky reference material.

qz.com/718745/charts-half-of-the-uks-foreign-investment-comes-from-the-countries-it-just-snubbed/

And much of the investment in the UK from countries outside the EU
was made because the UK is part of the Single Market, with frictionless borders

Trade with the EU is very important, but the boost it gives to the Uk wrt non-EU countries is often overlooked

Hence the govt desperation for cherry picking and for a Canada +++ deal

Maybe with the dawning realisation that non-EU countries will try to hammer a tougher deal with the UK, looking adrift without any deals,

than it can with a 27-member EU that keeps ll its other deals, business as usual.
e.g. The US and India are talking about much tougher terms - and taking until 2030 to negotiate them fully.

The Japanese govt has been sounding very pissed about Jaoanese investment made in the UK
on the basis that it gave them entry to a market of 500 million people, not just one of 65 million.

Farage does not have a job and he is skint. Not even Fox would touch him. So he is creating a job for himself.

If anyone knows what Jeremy Hunt said in his own defence, please let me know. It would come in handy to explain to my boss why I am useless at certain things and therefore should deserve a payrise.

^Maybe with the dawning realisation that non-EU countries will try to hammer a tougher deal with the UK, looking adrift without any deals,
than it can with a 27-member EU that keeps ll its other deals, business as usual.^

I think a lot of Brexiteer thinking is based on only being able to imagine a future where nothing is at all interconnected, and changing one thing has no effect on anything else. (It's one way top explain their POV).

So "UK leaves the EU" is just a thing, that has no impact anywhere else in the world.

Great, that's our contributions back.

Now add those to the UK GDP for 2019-2020, 2020-2021, 2021-2022 etc

We're quids in !!!!!

There seems to be a disconnect that as a result of the UK leaving the EU the GDP for 2020-2021 is going to be considerably less.

When I was studying Artificial Intelligence, we covered some work done in the US where they tried to use a very early form of neural network to help reduce domestic accidents. Faced with the data that the vast majority of accidents happened on the top or bottom stair, the output of the net was to remove the top and bottom stair.

I wonder if that experiment become POTUS ?

I wonder if that experiment become POTUS ?
[Grin]

The Dunning Kruger effect is notorious for simplistic thinking,
considering issues only separately, unaware how factors and events interact with each other and change outcomes

Unfortunate that we have government by Dunning Kruger
with many politicians little better informed or aware than the average voter

Trade, economics and international relations probably have hundreds of significant variables interacting and affecting outcomes.

btw, in my mathematical simulation models of the physical world,
I have literally several million variables in millions of simultaneous equations that must be simulated dynamically, i.e. recalculated in many iterations using the results of the previous iteration for the new starting values of each variable.

I hammer banks of supercomputers for many hours
and I still keep my eyes open for modelling improvements that other scientists suggest

The world keeps changing, regardless of whether we want it to.
Disaster happens when we ignore this and jump in an imaginary Tardis that turns out to be a dustbin filled with snake-oil
Because a bunch of spivs conned us

I went on one of those little internet click trips the other day where I started searching for one thing and ended up somewhere completely different. Discovered Parkinson's Law of Triviality.

In the third chapter, "High Finance, or the Point of Vanishing Interest", Parkinson writes about a fictional finance committee meeting with a three-item agenda:[1] The first is the signing of a £10 million contract to build a reactor, the second a proposal to build a £350 bicycle shed for the clerical staff, and the third proposes £21 a year to supply refreshments for the Joint Welfare Committee.

The £10 million number is too big and too technical, and it passes in two and a half minutes. One committee member proposes a completely different plan, which nobody is willing to accept as planning is advanced, and another who understands the topic has concerns, but does not feel that he can explain his concerns to the others on the committee.

The bicycle shed is a subject understood by the board, and the amount within their life experience, so committee member Mr Softleigh says that an aluminium roof is too expensive and they should use asbestos. Mr Holdfast wants galvanised iron. Mr Daring questions the need for the shed at all. Holdfast disagrees. Parkinson then writes: "The debate is fairly launched. A sum of £350 is well within everybody's comprehension. Everyone can visualise a bicycle shed. Discussion goes on, therefore, for forty-five minutes, with the possible result of saving some £50. Members at length sit back with a feeling of accomplishment."

Parkinson then described the third agenda item, writing: "There may be members of the committee who might fail to distinguish between asbestos and galvanised iron, but every man there knows about coffee – what it is, how it should be made, where it should be bought – and whether indeed it should be bought at all. This item on the agenda will occupy the members for an hour and a quarter, and they will end by asking the secretary to procure further information, leaving the matter to be decided at the next meeting."

Brexit anyone?

Looks like we're close to a coalition agreement (sorry, just in Germany !)

This may mean Germany has more time to consider Brexit.
Or they have long reached Peak Brexit
and will now concentrate on the E27 and their response to Trump, Putin, their sabre-rattling and their wars, climate change, refugees from all that ....

Proposed coalition deal:

• if necessary, boost German contribution to EU budget
• no tax rises (EU contributions are tiny % of German GDP)
• strengthening Eurozone in close partnership with France.
• transform ESM bailout mechanism into European monetary fund under parliamentary control.
• committed to developing common positions with France on all important questions of European and international politics.
• Parties support devoting specific budget funds for economic stabilization, social convergence, and structural reform support in Eurozone
• Also expected that non-EU immigration annual limit of 220k, with refugees allowed only to bring in their spouse, child, parent

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-surges-through-121-mark-on-german-coalition-talks-breakthrough-201801120854

I hammer banks of supercomputers for many hours and I still keep my eyes open for modelling improvements that other scientists suggest

Reason my brother moved to the US was to have access to that kind of computing power ... (which the US government makes available to US industry).

Detailed analysis into A50 revocation, commissioned by the EU and now available

Basically concludes that although member states would have to agree to any British revocation, the ECJ would have the final say

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/IDAN/2018/596820/IPOLIDA(2018)5968200_EN.pdf

Germany has that computing power too and some other EU countries share

Germany has that computing power too and some other EU countries share

Yes, but not in 1993, when my brother did his masters. And as a naturalised US citizen, he's rather attached to the place (can't quite see it myself).

Heidi Alexander: Why Would Nigel Farage Want A Second Referendum?
To Leave Before The Reality Starts To Bite

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/nigel-farage-second-referendumukk_5a579f5ae4b0a57f282c5094

The only way Nigel Farage wins a referendum is if it’s conducted in a similar way to last time - a vague proposition with little detail of what “leave” actually means.
A vacuum, to be filled with his lies and misinformation.

Meanwhile, anyone hoping that HMRC might get their act together can bally well wait.

www.theregister.co.uk/2018/01/12/pac_warns_hmrc_is_biting_off_more_than_it_can_chew/

The UK government's spending watchdog has warned HMRC is biting off more than it can chew by undergoing major transformational projects while simultaneously coping with the fallout of Brexit.

HMRC's transformation programme is not as "deliverable" as planned due to unrealistic assumptions and increased pressure from the additional workload caused by Brexit, the Public Accounts Committee warned today.

(contd)

It probably seems churlish, but even when they have claimed projects are deliverable, they aren't. So God only knows what a truly undeliverable project might result in.

EU Commission / ambassadors debate extending Brexit transition

They realise there may be a panicked British request in late 2020, so are preparing for this.
Yes, they think ahead, discuss and make plans for the various possible situations
How unsporting of them !

https://www.politico.eu/article/commission-debates-extending-brexit-transition/

The European Commission has not ruled out extending a Brexit transition period beyond 2020,
the deadline set by chief negotiator Michel Barnier in December.
…
However long the transition, the EU27 are united in the view that the U.K. must continue to abide by EU law and contribute to the budget during this period.
“If there’s an extension that overlaps with new budget, London will have to pay,” one of the diplomats explained.

The only way Nigel Farage wins a referendum is if it’s conducted in a similar way to last time - a vague proposition with little detail of what “leave” actually means.

Or, with gloves off, Remain just goes all out and lies too.

The bottom line is nothing should ever be decided on a 50.0000001/49.9999999 split. And if it is, it should never be called democractic.

The good thing about Niges spanner (not an image I suggest anyone pursues) is that it has really confused some Brexiteers (not in itself an achievement) as only last week, the gospel according to St. Farage was "no second referendum" as he and the BBC took on Tony Blair.

It has also managed to undermine the "we're all happy together" bullshit la May was trying to serve up recently, in a scene reminiscent of Fawlty Towers ...

BF: "You see? Satisfied customers. Of course, if this little hotel is not to your taste, then you are free to say so, that is your privilege. And I shall of course refund your money. I know how important it is to you Americans. But you must remember that here in Britain, there are things that we value more, things that perhaps in America you've rather forgotten about, but which to we British are far, far more important -"
Man: "We're not satisfied."
BF: "What ?"
Man: "I said we're not satisfied."
BF: "Well, people like you never are. There's nothing I could do to please a pair like you short of putting straw in the rooms...."

As soon as the referendum result was announced, a few people commented that whatever transpired, there would be more unhappy than happy Leavers.

EU Commission / ambassadors debate extending Brexit transition

The timing is too perfect. I read that as direct kick up the Farages to generate a howl from the No Dealers. Especially as this seems especially incendiary:

However long the transition, the EU27 are united in the view that the U.K. must continue to abide by EU law and contribute to the budget during this period.

The fact it can only increase the pressure on Theresa May certainly won't have been missed.

Discovered Parkinson's Law of Triviality.

I saw this happen in local government a lot. I once got tasked with writing a business case for spending millions on a project after at had already been agreed and the contract signed with next to no scrutiny. But try and get someone to agree a small piece of work costing a couple of grand and it would take years of business cases and project plans and pissing about in committees. In fact there was one particular project where we had funding from central government to pay for it, but management and councillors spent so much time arguing about miniscule details the deadline for claiming the money past before they signed off the project.

I'm so glad I don't work their anymore. I hate writing business cases.

On the Farage and his new referendum (or dreams of the glory days as I like to think of it) I wonder if remain are more likely to win if the call for a second ref comes from the leave side.

I have nothing to base this on other than a general feeling that the British do like to be contrary buggers and are more inclined to vote against the side calling the vote than to support them.