Westministenders Continues. The one where are being grateful for having a Boris rather than a Trump and UKIP show Labour how it’s done.

[RedToothBrush]

THE BREXIT FALLOUT CONTINUES - THREAD TWELVE

The calm of the eye of the storm is upon us. The signs are there that more trouble is ahead. What now for Brexit, the blank cheque for our future?

May’s honeymoon can only last the Summer, until she has to do some proper graft. Her Cabinet have all gone on holiday and to swat up on their new specialised subject, and by god have they got some homework to do.

Well, all of them apart from Liam Fox, who has bugger all to do for some time.

Johnson needs to… well we all know what Boris needs to do. Bend over and take it like a good boy.

Davies needs to learn the entire structure and workings of the EU and its variations of trade agreements and relationships with other nations. Juncker has the FUKD in his little black book of people who have crossed him (yes, he actually has one of these) and has put Brit Hating Barnier in charge of the EU Brexit team. Davies must somehow hold his own against this experienced EU hardnut. In French. Oh and find a permanent office.

What do the others need to learn? Hammond - how to perform a bloody miracle. Patel - it is illegal to use foreign aid as a leverage for trade deals. Leadsom – er everything? Rudd – how to do bigger assault on liberty and human rights than her mentor. Fallon – how we will afford to defend ourselves with pitch forks, especially if we can’t use Trident for some reason and it becomes necessary. Our enemy; Russia? North Korea? Turkey? Isis? Na. Trump if he wins.

Brexit is now officially in the hands Whitehall’s unbelievers. Those overstretched officials who are already saying there is a gap in their capacity to deliver what Parliament wants without additional the burden of Brexit. These discredited experts are left wondering if their challenge is, in reality, Mission Impossible, and this is made worse by the pressure that just about every senior Brexiteer seems to say is ‘easy’ despite all the mounting evidence to the contrary. Which is cold comfort to everyone who voted – Remain or Leave alike.

We still don’t even know what Brexit is. It is still something which has no coherent ideology and no clear set of prescriptions for what ailes us as a society. It is a bundle of contradictions, united chiefly by what, and who, it opposes. Whatever the problem, Brexit can fix it. Whatever the threat, internal or external, Brexit can vanquish it, and it is unnecessary for Brexiteers to explain how.

May’s plan? Some say that she is the Dear Leader, some say she is an evil genius with Larry the Cat on her lap waiting for the Brexiteer Boys to fuck it up so we can Remain, some say she is blessed by the Ghost of Thatcher but we know her as The PM. –Sorry I’ve been itching to make the May/Hammond Top Gear gag for several weeks— The truth is, we just don't know yet.

Plus anything Brexit related about the Labour and UKIP leadership and the rest of the world thrown in to boot.

This is the quest for the answers that everyone wants and trying to keep an eye on those politicians and accountability (both here and abroad in the era of post-fact politics in the trail of Brexit). There maybe no single ‘truth’ but there sure as hell is a lot of bullshit to wade through. Get your wellies out, and plough on through with us.

No experience necessary. Sense of humour required.

-------------------------

Brexit Fall Out Timetable
Labour Hustings Nottinghamshire: Wednesday 17th August
Labour Hustings Birmingham: Thursday 18th August.
Labour Hustings Glasgow: Thursday 25th August.
Labour Hustings London: Thursday 1st September
UKIP Leadership Result: 15th September
Labour Leadership Result: Saturday 24th September
The Department for Exiting the European Union first question sessions in Parliament: Thursday 20th October
High Court hearing on a50: due 'no earlier than the third week in October'
US Presidential Election: 8th November
French Presidential Election 1st Round: 23 April 2017
French Presidential Election 2nd Round: 7th May 2017
German Federal Election: Between 27 August and 22 October 2017

Last thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2690632-Westminstenders-Continues-Boris-is-having-a-bad-week-Corbyn-resists-Its-gonna-be-a-long-summer?pg=1

[prettybird]

I don't think that Scotland can block Brexit either but they could make themselves bloody annoying and delay things - not in WM (as Tommy Shephard is saying) but by refusing to grant Sewel motions and making WM itself over-ride the Scottish Parliament even on devolved matters and create more bad feeling towards it.

Tommy Shephard isn't a key member of the SNP "Senior Management Team" although he's like to be, but was playing to the audience. I don't see him winning the Depute Leader contest.

It's also worth remembering a certain rule of thumb which was learnt during the Indyref (and observed again during the Brexit Campaign): "will" = might; "might" = possibly/perhaps; "possibly" = almost definitely not

However, the possibility that Scotland could delay but not stop Brexit could mean that May will "allow" Scotland to hold Indyref2 in return for not being obstructive.

Which leads nicely on to the 2nd point: I'm not sure that Spain will block Scotland, as long as WM agrees another Indyref (which has to be win this time, as another one would be unlikely for another 30+ years). Their position has always been that they don't oppose Scottish EU membership, provided "due constitutional process" is followed (which contrasts with Catalonia's situation where it's apparently against their constitution).

Spain is more concerned about the implications of Brexit on Gibraltar. Given Gibraltar's 94% Remain vote, their own sense of Britishness might be challenged. I can't claim to have any real knowledge of what Gibraltarians think though.

[Corcory]

So interesting, this thread. I too don't think the SNP can stop Brexit at WM. And I certainly hope they don't persuade TM to give them the nod on indiref2 just to get Brexit through. I would hope that all the noise wanting things to happen and for the government to get on with it will make the SNP very unpopular with business, finance and science sectors.

[prettybird]

I don't think they want Indyref2 yet either - unless they've got very positive vibes from the EU (which might reassure business) - as they wanted polls to be consistently 60% in favour before they did.

They're damned either way though: there's a vociferous element of their own membership (and other Independence groups) who want another Referendum, but the SNP as a party gets criticised for its "iron discipline" and central control, so if it refuses those members the choice of Indyref2.....

[RedToothBrush]

www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/tory-michael-gove-leak-queens-8577034
This is a story and a half. Leaky Michael Gove let it slip that the Queen wanted Brexit. Says Nick Clegg in a documentary for the BBC.

www.theguardian.com/society/2016/aug/06/care-cost-elderly-home?CMP=twt_gu
Senior May aide says elderly should sell their homes to pay for their care

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jeremy-corbyn-rules-out-overturning-brexit-vote-either-through-second-referendum-or-general-election_uk_57a6046de4b03393f7f6272b?9it18u5hnhppsyvi
Corbyn rules out over ruling Brexit vote.

[LowDudgeon]

It was clear at the time that Govey was the leaker - Clegg & the media implied as much

Had forgotten about it though. Good to have his twattery confirmed.

[OlennasWimple]

May certainly knows what the grassroots Tories wants, getting rid of the ban on new grammar schools

[prettybird]

Saw this tweet and not sure of when if this was said, but if true, it does appear that Labour still hasn't learnt about Scotland

@GrayInGlasgow: UK Labour leadership candidate Owen Smith has said he would not do a deal with the SNP even if it meant having another Tory government.

[Peregrina]

I thought that the elderly already did sell their homes to pay for care. I can certainly think of a couple who have done so.

[Peregrina]

A ban on new Grammar Schools will definitely be a vote winner with those Tory voters who are currently being priced out of Independent education.

Will it promote social mobility? After all, May has made noises about the need to do something for white working class boys. All the evidence from when the system was in place throughout in the 50s and 60s suggests not. For example, I went to a primary school with a mixed catchment area, which had two streams, A & B. Most of the A stream passed the 11+, so 30 ish children. No one (another 30 or so ) in the B stream did. A friend who went to a school in the middle of a council estate was the only one of two to pass in her year. This was a time too, when council estates weren't the sink estates they became as the better properties were sold off. May could also look to Bucks and Kent to see if they are havens of social mobility. I don't think she will find that is the case.

The desperate need is a decent attempt at reforming technical/vocational education. There have been a number of good reports about ways to do this, but neither Labour nor the Tories have wanted to know. If they were to do this, and make the age of selection 14 instead of 10/11 then IMO it could be successful.

[BuntyFigglesworthSpiffington]

Michael Gove WAS the source of a claim the Queen backed Brexit , says former Deputy PM Nick Clegg

Which re-affirms that statement a few weeks ago that said Gove couldn't help but gossip when he'd had a few sherries.

[whatwouldrondo]

Peregrina Whatever happened in the 60s, and my experience was of there being a very significant proportion of working class pupils in my grammar school, but then we had a teacher centred selection process which only tested what the teacher determined were the borderline pupils, it certainly ain't so now. Any area that has Grammar Schools also has a massive tutoring industry. In London it borders on child abuse with children sat around the kitchen tables in tutoring factories endlessly repeating verbal reasoning tests for years on end. In theory reasoning tests are tests of ability if you invest in making them unpredictable. In practise, possibly because with literally thousands of applicants the schools have not been able, or possibly couldn't hope to with such fine lines of distinction, to afford to do that. Parents can and do improve scores by subjecting their children to that tedium ( which has negligible educational value). As a result a lot of grammar schools have now switched to varying degrees to tests of English and Maths which they claim are less tutorable. However the cynical might say that was because they found themselves with pupils who having spent so much time improving their reasoning scores were actually deficient in their literacy and numeracy skills and if they were going to have to accept the products of a tutoring industry then it might as well be directed towards giving their pupils useful knowledge.

Of course this means the schools certainly do not reflect the local socio economic profile with eg far fewer, actually negligible, numbers of pupils on FSM compared to local community schools. However they also, in London, have a far higher proportion of BME pupils, in some cases over 70% compared with around 40% in local schools. Arguably they are providing a mechanism for social mobility for some of those children, certainly anecdotally I know of children where this is the case. However I doubt that is driving TM's thinking, nationally grammar schools are overwhelmingly the preserve of the middle classes.

Thank you Red this thread is a lifeline of sanity in a very murky sea.

[Peregrina]

whatwouldrondo I had changed schools for my last year of primary because we moved house. Everyone took the 11+, which was in November at the new school, and it was cram, cram, cram for the exam for most of the Autumn term. It was absolute misery.

It's interesting that you in London the grammars have a higher proportion of BME pupils. TM and Justine Greening need to be looking to these schools to see what they are doing to achieve this.

I am not sure that the Tories really want social mobility though; just add in a few clever working class people so that the gene pool of Tories doesn't get too inbred.

[prettybird]

Theresa May to make fracking more attractive to individuals/households affected https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/06/fracking-local-people-payments-theresa-may

The Mail's take on it talks about £13,000 per household but I won't link to the Mail

This can be interpreted two ways: either she thinks that the North of England, where the shale deposits are, can be bribed and will look more favourably on the Tories or the North is expendable, when/if the groundwater is contaminated.

Could also mean that the government is concerned about declining oil reserves/energy supplies and sees the need to maintain them.

For the moment there is a moratorium on fracking in Scotland while the SG assesses its safety. This is apparently the only legal way they can delay it until energy matters are devolved to Scotland.

[Kaija]

Peregrina, we live in a grammar school area on the outskirts of London. I would say that the relatively high proportion of BME students in these grammars has nothing to do with any efforts on the grammar schools' part. Entry is based entirely on Maths and English tests taken at the beginning of year 6.

The difference may be due simply to the fact that, unlike the grammars which draw children from a very wide area geographically, entry to the non-grammars here is catchment-based, and it is a predominantly white area with much more multi-cultural areas a few miles further into London.

But it may be also that BME parents as a group are more committed to educational achievement, and are more inclined to prioritise extra coaching for their children. And given that the children do entry tests at start of year 6 which include material that may not be taught at their schools until the end of year 6, this is the crucial factor.

[RedToothBrush]

www.theguardian.com/education/2016/aug/03/tim-farron-pledges-to-block-any-tory-attempt-to-create-grammar-schools
Tim Farron, said last week ago that he would fight tooth and nail to stop the grammar school change and seek cross party support. Probably in the Lords.

press.labour.org.uk/post/148581338884/news-from-labour-selection-belongs-in-the-dustbin
It looks like Farron, has support from the Labour Party too. I would have thought that there would be enough to really make it difficult for May to get it through.

www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/08/almost-three-in-four-of-our-party-member-survey-respondents-want-a-hard-brexit-not-the-soft-version.html
From Conservative Home: 3 out of 4 of our members want a hard Brexit not a soft one.

www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/08/exclusive-jeremy-corbyn-accused-ignoring-leaked-report-labours-rural-problem
Labour's rural problem.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/universal-basic-income-jeremy-corbyn-considering-labour-party-a7177121.html
Corbyn comes out in favour of Universal basic income. This is what is being trialled in a couple of places at the moment, and the swiss recently rejected a referendum on the subject.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-jeremy-corbyn-peter-mandelson-remain-campaign-eu-referendum-7176551.html
Mandy claims that Corbyn sabotaged the Remain campaign. Mandy doesn't like Corbyn. Can't think why.

www.theguardian.com/science/2016/aug/07/being-bilingual-good-for-brain-mental-health?CMP=twt_gu
Seeing as we want to break with Europe, perhaps we should be thinking about this: Being bilingual is good for your health.
Multilingualism has been shown to have many social, psychological and lifestyle advantages. Moreover, researchers are finding a swath of health benefits from speaking more than one language, including faster stroke recovery and delayed onset of dementia.
Interesting stuff.

[RedToothBrush]

Kerry-Anne Mendoza ‏@Scriptonite · 1m1 minute ago

Owen Smith's Strategy:

1. Corbyn policy is criticised = promise to do opposite
2. Corbyn policy is praised = promise only I can deliver it.

[Peregrina]

I am so fed up of all this Corbyn bashing. Labour voters voted Remain by about 60% so as far as I am concerned, he delivered.

The same percentage of Tories voted Leave. Although most Tory MPs voted Remain, I don't doubt that TM will know which side her bread is buttered, and will appease the bulk of the Tory voters - and hang what is best for the country.

Maybe I am just too cynical.

[whatwouldrondo]

Peregrina I agree with Kaija that the high number of BME pupils is the result of cultural values not anything that the schools have done, there are also higher proportions of BME pupils in the most selective private schools compared to the surrounding state comprehensives, coming from families who are often making sacrifices and focusing their economic resources on their educational ambitions for their children (though the private schools do tend to be actively seeking diversity in their cohorts). Indeed I feel very strongly as a result of my own background that the local grammar schools have a responsibility that they are not fulfilling to ensure they select the most able pupils from every sort of background not the ones crammed and tutored over years. If they are funded by the state to be vehicles of social mobility for clever pupils then that should be something they are focused on instead of coasting along with pupil cohorts that they can rely on to be tutored and coached not just for selection but for GCSE, A level and medical school / Oxbridge entry (and I know families where this has happened), and as a by product underwriting a tutoring industry based on a parental perception that years of tutoring are required to get in and do well. That industry is working at a level of intensity I have only seen elsewhere in Singapore and Hong Kong, endless threads on the education topics here give you a flavour of it. If you compare their examination results to the top sets in local outstanding comprehensives they really should be adding more value given that in theory they should be taking the top 2% in terms of ability.

[prettybird]

Interesting discussion about grammar schools and cramming.

I. was "rejected" (aged 4 ) from a selective school in Glasgow (my parents - recent immigrants - found out that other children had crammed for it aged 4 ). My "revenge" was to get 6 x A at Higher (the norm is to sit 5 - but a group of friends and I sat 6 and all got straight As: this was at a school where dad's doctor colleagues had said would "damage my education on the altar of his political principles ).

Ds went through the same, also aged 4 when he was "rejected" by the local private school (dh's idea, not mine ), where, while waiting for their assessment session, we saw parents getting their children to practice reading: we looked on thinking "Ds know the letter Mmmmm" the first letter of his name. He is now in the top sets at secondary and on course to get very good exam results out on Tuesday

In Glasgow, quite a few people assume the state schools are no good and move out to East Renfrewshire/East Dunbartonshire because on the face of it, their exam results are better. Quite apart from the fact that once you factor in the demographics/deprivation, it's not as black & white as the exam results suggest, according to my SIL, who works in Education, the dropout rate for 1st Year university is extremely high for East Ren. So good at passing exams, not so good at thinking.

No idea if the new Curriculum for Excellence will change things as it's supposed to be more about applying knowledge (Maths questions involving working out scenarios for example).

I've tried to find research/source material that backs up SIL's comment but can't find anything that directly says that, although I did find some that inferred it.

[thecatfromjapan]

I have a problem linking to articles from my phone, which is a shame because I spend most time reading Twitter-linked articles on my phone.

I've noticed that a lot of USA press articles link Brexit and Trump and are extremely negative in their forecasts of the outcome of Brexit. It strikes me that the UK really is being used as a 'cautionary tale'. It makes me wonder at the effect of this on support for Trump in the USA. Will it diminish that support?

It also strikes me that the run-up to the Referendum is being analysed in order to develop a more sophisticated attack on the Trump rhetorical approach. On the one hand, I hope it's successful, on the other, seeing that development of a sophisticated, more aggressive, response fills me with despair that this didn't happen in the UK. Again, it leaves me with the feeling that the UK is going to be a cautionary tale for many governments, for a long time.

The article about the number of Conservative Party members who are in favour of a 'hard Brexit' (with it's concomitant appalling impact for the economy and EU stability,) also saddens me and reminds me just why it is so dreadful that Labour is in the state it's in. There is pressure from within the Conservative Party, within the Conservative Cabinet, from the media, and from a section of the electorate (though by no means the majority) for a 'hard Brexit'. We really, really need an Opposition providing a counter-force to that. I have profound doubts that Corbyn will deliver that.

(And I am aware that this keeps on re-surfacing as a comment lament on these threads but ... I just have to type it - or explode!)

[thecatfromjapan]

I suppose one thing I am very interested in is how the 'rhetoric' of Brexit/Trump is faring, both here and in the US. As I'm sure we all know, MN has a couple of posters who are exemplary proponents of that rhetoric (globalisation, elites, the disenfranchised WC/MC, plucky outsiders taking on 'the Establishment', high-level covert networks and conspiracies, the Bankers, etc) and I just wonder if the reality of Brexit has taken some of the force out of that nativist-populist meme-cluster?

[Unicornsarelovely]

Unfortunately cat, I don't think it has taken the sting out of the anti-elite memes - if anything it's reinforcing it.

There's the huge distrust of the establishment to actually deliver Brexit, and I suspect despite appointing David Davies, any acknowledgement of the reality of the terms we're going to face will be treated as treachery by the elites.

My hope is that this really encourages young people to engage and critically look at the media and why they're being herded in particular directions which starts having an impact on elections and stops politicians cynically pandering to a decreasing number of elderly voters.

[TheNorthRemembers]

I miss Peter Mandelson [prepares to get flamed]. The Real PM documentary was one of my all time favourites. Especially the (then-)shy Osborne getting heckled by Mandelson.

Arguments for and against grammar schools are fascinating. I have no clue. We are possibly considering one for the future, but I was quite put off by parents there.

[SapphireStrange]

Thank you for the thread, OP. It seems that a 'hard Brexit' is looking more and more likely, which really frightens me; if it goes that way, we will lose (for starters) London as a world economic centre, and that won't do the UK any good at all.

[Peregrina]

If a 'hard Brexit' happens, it's scary, but this would be against the will of the 48% who voted to Remain, and a significant number who voted Leave. Will TM really be ready to antagonise, 60-70% of those who voted?

Maybe so. And then leave us far from having 'Sovereignity' but totally in hock to China.