What Next?

[Margrethe]

I have moved through the stages of shock and grief and now want to think about what we need to do as a country to succeed. I'd like to hear other people's ideas too. Enough with the doom mongering! It's a time of great risk, but also of opportunity. I'll throw out my nascent thoughts. I know they are far from perfect or "the answer," but I'd like to get a little bit of constructive conversation going. (I know nitpickers will come along and complain and critique, I could do myself; it's easier than being constructive and creative.)

Here are some things I think we need to do:

1. Increase airport capacity in the SE: we can't pivot away from Europe and towards the rest of the world without it

1. Renew Trident: we are more on our own now and we need it to stay a relevant part of NATO, frankly; we should consider moving the subs from Faslane in Scotland (The Scots don't want them!) to Portsmith or perhaps Millhaven in Wales where they really need the jobs after the Port Talbot closure and some of the heavy industry skills might be transferable

1. Pull the plug on the Hinkley Point Nuclear power project. That should now be a project for building up UK capabilities and jobs not a pork barrel for the French. At the very least it should be a bargaining chip going forward.

1. Start rewriting UK public contracts to favour UK based subcontractors and suppliers, eg. we are buying more rolling stock for our railways all the time, we really should favour buying from domestic producers

1. Start some high profile scientific projects with the best universities in Asia (Tsinghua, Peking, Tokyo, Singapore, etc.)

1. Don't start negotiations with the EU from a position of compromise. It's pretty obvious that people voting leave want control over immigration so rocking up and asking for the Norway deal as your starting point is unbelievably stupid. (For this reason, Nicky Morgan is a terrible candidate for leader.) Start asking for what you really want, free trade with control over immigration. You never know how far you will get, if you try. At the moment, it all feels horrible, but we should be doing an inventory of every lever that we have and understanding what the different players in the EU want and need. We also need to baseline the worst case scenario (WTO terms, so we have a reference point.) There are actually an infinite number of possible outcomes. We can help ourselves by being creative. If our banks (a major industry for us) need Euro Passporting how can we bargain? Can we link a certain number of guaranteed visas for EU migrants to the amount of passporting we do in a year?

1. We need a chancellor who will invest heavily in the UK and fund that investment with borrowing. Now is a time for expansionist policies.

Basically, lets start thinking instead of panicking.

(BTW, I voted remain. I just think rowing back isn't practically possible or at this point desirable. We have had the economic shock now.)

Those are my thoughts at the moment. What have you got? Please share!

I think you would have to restrict it to two choices, such as a straight choice between remaining and being in the EEA

So you'd include your chosen option from last week's referendum, but the option most voters chose, i.e. Leave the EU, isn't mentioned at all?

I think the U.K. Is going to have to get on with doing lots of things that previously seemed too politically difficult.

Basically, we need to ask ourselves, "What would Singspore do?" And then we need to do it.

The alternative is to become a sort of open air museum, like the Black Country Museum or Beamish. Tourists would love it, and we would be such a cheap place to visit.

So you'd include your chosen option from last week's referendum, but the option most voters chose, i.e. Leave the EU, isn't mentioned at all?

That was an example, not a recommendation. The point being that referendums (if you have to have them) should offer a choice between two carefully-framed and very specific alternatives, precisely so you end up in the ridiculous situation we are in now. One of those should be the status quo. So if a new referendum was held before triggering article 50, one option should be remaining. If afterwards, one option should be a clean break, since that becomes the status quo.

However, the EEA option very much does involve leaving the EU (which is what people voted for), but permits the UK to remain in the single market (people were not asked this question).

That should say "precisely so you dont end up in the ridiculous situation we're in now"

You can't do that though

redtoothbrush I personally agree that a second referendum is very problematic for the reasons you say. It's a difficult political problem. People can't have what they want (EU membership without any of the annoying bits, like following EU laws and Romanian neighbours) - and by the time we trigger A50 and wait two years to find out what we can have, our options will have narrowed considerably. So you can either have a referendum first, and promise people things they may not be able to have, or a referendum later, and offer them only choices they don't like.

This makes a GE vastly preferable to a second referendum IMO.

Margarethe that might be the best suggestion yet ;)

Margrethe, great idea for a thread.

I'm watching and reading with interest, although I've nothing to add yet.

Great idea for a thread OP. Some actual constructive thoughts would be nice. I'm no economist so can't comment on most of your ideas except for 5.

This is highly unlikely unless we can get the other countries to pony up, because UK university and science funding is now in big trouble (things were pretty tight before) and internationally-minded researchers who could work anywhere in the world are really not impressed with us right now (or in fact a bit scared of the angry anti-intellectual sentiment that has arisen).

www.nature.com/news/uk-scientists-in-limbo-after-brexit-shock-1.20178

imo discussing what can be done in a a positive constructive way is a big step forward not least because it helps to lift the public mood and stop the feeling of panic and recrimination

This is highly unlikely unless we can get the other countries to pony up

You would have thought by now - having had it demonstrated in black and white (and English) - that any decisions the UK makes should not be predicated upon what other countries should do.

It's frustrating, and predictable in equal measures that one of the more audacious claims of Brexit - That the EU would be queuing up for "informal talks" - having been so quickly and completely shown to be a load of old bollcks, isn't being highlighted more. But heigh ho - lets look at the navel fluff that's called the Labour Party.

You'd think the more intelligent leave voters (who we are assured exist) would have picked up on that as maybe the first sign that we're not on Planet Farage, but planet earth.

Expecting to leave the EU is now the status quo.

You'd think the more intelligent leave voters (who we are assured exist)

Unnecessary & out of place on a thread that is supposed to be constructive and forward looking.

imo discussing what can be done in a a positive constructive way is a big step forward not least because it helps to lift the public mood and stop the feeling of panic and recrimination

Oh, the recriminations will be there for a long time.

It's a little akin to having your house set on fire against you will. You didn't want it set on fire, but that's how things roll in your street. Now, as the firefighters squabble over who gets to play with the hose turn up, you are being told it's in your best interests to help them put out the fire, and save your house.

Of course you are going to help - it's enlightened self interest. But don't expect the householder to be sending you flowers later saying "thanks for burning down my house."

Great idea for a thread. I do think Singapore has been massively successful on a lot of issues (and not so much on others) but we are talking about a city-state that we have 10x the population of.

We need to provide big businesses incentives to stay or establish themselves further here. The idea of working with Asian universities is a good one. I also heard of an idea to establish a mini Silicon Valley style operation.

For me, I'd like to see closer ties with the Commonwealth. If you could establish some sort of working links, freedom of movement type thing with Canada, Australia, New Zealand etc like the current reciprocal agreement between Aus and NZ.

Hinckley Point may be a no go but our existing power plants are coming to the end of operation. A lot of the coal plants are being decommissioned and I do feel we need to replace these. Lots of people are against coal but we do have the British expertise to build coal power plants.

Oh, the recriminations will be there for a long time I see your point but it is still helpful to try and move forward rather than spreading panic and doom

I think there's a good chance that the EU will unravel and we will be glad that we got out first and were able to be the first to put our house in order
rather than going down with the ship

^I think there's a good chance that the EU will unravel and we will be glad that we got out first and were able to be the first to put our house in order
rather than going down with the ship^

I've also suggested that might happen. However it maybe we did pull the plug.

A lot of the coal plants are being decommissioned and I do feel we need to replace these. Lots of people are against coal but we do have the British expertise to build coal power plants.

Thus underscoring what a lot of people fearing for the environment said.

The drawback there being the need to import coal from some very dodgy countries.

However it maybe we did pull the plug

true, and there's no way of knowing is there
although one could argue that, if it is fragile enough to be undone by the exit of one member nation then it cant have been strong enough to last

we may prompt other countries to leave but if so the seeds of discontent must have been present and on fertile ground

It doesn't really help to create a constructive environment if people are talking gleefully of the potential collapse of the EU.

Expecting to leave the EU is now the status quo

Sure, but there is only one way to do that, and it hasn't been done yet. The legal and factual status quo is that we are still an EU member until at least October 2018.

Good idea to have a constructive thread!

Sorry to post something not in the spirit but the aviation industry is pretty international and hugely relies on the Open Skies policy brokered by the Eu.

Ryanair execs talked about it alot in the run up to the ref....but I don't think many listened.

Sorry not very clear. That was in response to your first point about increasing airport capacity in the SE. You'll have to renegotiate open skies first.

'It's a little akin to having your house set on fire against you will. You didn't want it set on fire, but that's how things roll in your street. Now, as the firefighters squabble over who gets to play with the hose turn up, you are being told it's in your best interests to help them put out the fire, and save your house.

Of course you are going to help - it's enlightened self interest. But don't expect the householder to be sending you flowers later saying "thanks for burning down my house."'

Brilliant.

OP, your ideas are sweet. But I think people are going to be nervous of having any other crazy dreams for a long time. The UK is desperately craving stability.

I'd love to know what we do now. But not what the politicians should do, but what WE, the normal people, should do. Do we buy British? Shop more? Less? What can we do to help ourselves?

I'm picking up on the OP's comments on building up the UK's capabilities. We need some form of power/energy project in the next few years to meet energy demands.

However, we will be shooting ourselves in the foot if we cancel Hinkley Point.

We don't have the capabilities currently to make it an only-UK focused project. And it would take years - as well as other countries' support and expertise - to build these capacities. We either meet energy demand by using foreign expertise or we shoot ourselves in the foot and say nope, UK only.

If people want power projects with UK only jobs, the only expertise that we currently have in terms of skills and experience, is building coal power plants. And even then there are no UK companies who make turbines large enough.

Obviously people are massively opposed to coal. Not sure what you mean by dodgy countries though.

Shop more? Less? What can we do to help ourselves?

The problem here is that the rational response to this type of economic uncertainty, for an individual, is to spend less and save more, to put away some cash in case of hard times ahead. However, from an economic point of view, if everyone does that, you trigger a recession. So what makes sense from an individual point of view is not helpful from an economic point of view.

On a positive note, re stability, the Bank of England has done an excellent job in containing the panic. It was, apparently, the only state institution with an actual plan. The leave camp should consider stopping slagging it off and calling for the replacement of its senior people.