Actual economic effects...

[Spinflight]

FTSE closed on Wednesday at 6138. Closed on Friday at 6138.

Long term borrowing rates have come down as brexit appeared more likely, 10yr ones from 2% down to 1.09% post brexit. Similarly all the European long term borrowing rates rose sharply. Lesson? We are a less risky and more credit worthy outside the EU than in.

One ratings agency did drop our credit worthiness, though oddly the last time they did was out of fear of Eurozone contagion. Seems completely at odds with the long term borrowing rates, which matter quite a great deal given our debts.

The pound dropped, quite significantly. It appears however that there was some 'unusual' activity in the market which forced it down whenever the Leave campaign polled well. To the extent of trying to sell it when there were no buyers.

Some people lost a great deal of money, probably dwarfing the millions contributed to the remain campaign, lets hope it was Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. :)

Even now we could save the Titanic.

A weird 'you've made your bed now you have to lie in it' passivity has overcome the UK. If your bed is causing the economy to tank you surely get the fuck out of it and remake it?

Are we really going to go down valiantly playing violins because no-one has the gumption to challenge a majority of about a million people who didn't know what the fuck they were voting for and regret it.

Nick Leeson asks a good question.

Are we really going to go down valiantly playing violins because no-one has the gumption to challenge a majority of about a million people who didn't know what the fuck they were voting for and regret it.

Apparently it is "democracy" to let a million odd English and Welsh voters impose a hard border on Ireland, force NI and Scotland out of the EU despite their populations voting against leaving, remove EU citizenship rights from millions of UK citizens who were born with them (many of whom had no vote).

This really is the tyranny of the majority.

Our rights are being trampled to shit and we are told we have to not only acquiesce in this, but any complaint or attempt to make it less brutal is not allowed.

This new style "democracy" demands total obsequious acceptance of the will of a tiny majority. No resistance is to be tolerated.

This new style "democracy" demands total obsequious acceptance of the will of a tiny majority. No resistance is to be tolerated.

for Doin!

It was a 2:2 draw between the 4 countries of the UK.

Everything that I have heard about (and discussed) on the academic grapevine, now reported on Newsnight as several university vice-chancellors speak out:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-uk-leaves-the-eu-36719923

"UK-based academics are being asked to withdraw their applications for future funding by European partners."

He told Newsnight: "Since the referendum result, of the 12 projects that we have people working on for submission for an end-of-August deadline, on four of those projects researchers in other European countries have said that they no longer feel that the UK should be a partner because they don't have confidence in what the future is going to hold."

"They also report that staff members and prospective staff members have notified them of their decisions to seek work elsewhere in the EU."

Nick Leeson ran away to let everyone else sort out the mess too, if I recall rightly.

Can Gove, Farage and Johnson's passports be cancelled pronto?

Just logged on at work to see the pound under $1.30!!!

And under €1.17.

Cheap holiday for us in the UK this August, with euros and dollars to spend...

Just saw the same, Misti.

Weren't the predictions immediately post-Brexit that we wouldn't hit this low before the end of the year?

Or do I misremember?

What are the good things about a devalued currency?

I know there are some.

I would love Farage or Johnson to be interviewed on a heavyweight and take some accountability for what's happened so far.

People were talking about $1.20 by the year end. Those same people are now talking about $1.10.

Read one quote in my inbox this morning that trading sterling is like "trying to catch a falling knife".

Still, my precious metal ETFs are looking healthy - small mercies eh?

On a heavyweight media show.

Mind you, being interviewed on a heavyweight boxer would be interesting

It's the relentless negativity of the Remainers pushing the £ down, right?
...

Actually, I've worked it out!

The Leave voters have the superpower of prescience - that's why they keep saying they already expected absolutely everything that has happened since the referendum (PM resigning, opposition eating itself, all Leave figureheads running away in the first week, disastrous economic effects, the utter lack of a Plan - even Article 50 not invoked and that we're most likely to end up with Brexit-lite, they foresaw everything! Except the increase in racism, that was totally unpredictable ). And that same power is what gives them the confidence that it's all going to be Grand in, oh, give or take two decades.

OTOH, the Remain voters have the superpower of psychokinesis and that's why it's their fault for Willing all the bad things that have happened. Also that's the reason Remain voters have to start Thinking Positively and Pulling Together, because Leave voters can't do this and now everything's going to shit because of us.

Except shouldn't the Leave voters have foreseen that Remain voters would do this, so they made it happen by voting for it, so who made this happen in the first place... ^^

What are the good things about a devalued currency?

My second job pays in dollars, my bank converts these ino £. I now get more £ to $.

That's a good thing.

Also there'll be a boost in tourism and exports are cheaper so companies who export a lot of goods and don't need to import much will see increased trade due to their goods being cheaper.

None of that outweighs the bad bits though, no matter how much Brexiters want it to.

"Also there'll be a boost in tourism"

UK isn't much of a tourist destination, though. People may visit London for a few days, go to museums and do a bit of shopping but otherwise? It's not like Greece or Spain with multiple touristic spots and people visiting to spend weeks of holiday.

"exports are cheaper so companies who export a lot of goods and don't need to import much"

How many of those are there, though? UK is primarily a service industry these days and exported products rely heavily on imported raw materials like pharmaceuticals, oil, and metals. All import prices just shot up 12%, which will squeeze profit margins.

TheElements

I predicted all of those things would happen after Brexit. It hardly took a genius.

I was also surprised by the rise in expressed racism. I have been very taken aback by that, TBH.

I am yet to come across a Brexiter that even admits any of it is happening, never mind says they predicted ut.

But I don't know any Brexiters in real life, so what do I know.

If tourism is not big in the UK, then maybe the lower pound will increase it?

It's certainly beautiful enough and has tons of historical monuments.

We would need ti invest in infrastructure, but we should be doing that anyway.

Tourism is big in the UK and the weak pound makes it a more attractive destination.

But any signs that foreigners are being targetted will put people off. There have been reports of drivers of foreign registered cars being subjected to abuse - it's actually making me think twice about bringing my French plated car over in August (although I think the risk is small, it's clearly no longer indistinguishable from zero).

Foreign visitors to the UK are generally coming to see London. Some may take in Oxford and Bath too, but in far, far smaller numbers. You don't get that many tourists in the English countryside, beautiful though it is.

Tourism is big in the UK and the weak pound makes it a more attractive destination.

Except the rise in racist attacks are being reported around the world. I was at a meeting the other day and the one thing I kept being asked about brexit was 'Is it still safe to visit London?'

American tourists in particular are very neurotic about safety. I say this having run an Italian house as a rental business for 15 years. Every time there's a bomb or a major riot somewhere in Europe, you can guarantee one U.S. booking will be cancelled.

I wonder whose negativity is causing the racism?

I wonder whose negativity is causing the racism?

The last I heard was that it's made up .

Except the rise in racist attacks are being reported around the world. I was at a meeting the other day and the one thing I kept being asked about brexit was 'Is it still safe to visit London?'

Yes, that's what I said in the second half of my post. If even not particularly risk averse people like me are vaguely concerned, how will american tourists react?

Yes, the racism will hurt tourism. Hadn't thought of that.

Although we're not into terror attacks (yet).