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Brexit

Actual economic effects...

999 replies

Spinflight · 25/06/2016 21:59

FTSE closed on Wednesday at 6138. Closed on Friday at 6138.

Long term borrowing rates have come down as brexit appeared more likely, 10yr ones from 2% down to 1.09% post brexit. Similarly all the European long term borrowing rates rose sharply. Lesson? We are a less risky and more credit worthy outside the EU than in.

One ratings agency did drop our credit worthiness, though oddly the last time they did was out of fear of Eurozone contagion. Seems completely at odds with the long term borrowing rates, which matter quite a great deal given our debts.

The pound dropped, quite significantly. It appears however that there was some 'unusual' activity in the market which forced it down whenever the Leave campaign polled well. To the extent of trying to sell it when there were no buyers.

Some people lost a great deal of money, probably dwarfing the millions contributed to the remain campaign, lets hope it was Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. :)

OP posts:
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smallfox1980 · 05/07/2016 09:54

Which is what people have been saying here Goudy :)

Investments have definitely been delayed, Siemens have put plans as have other firms.

StatisticallyChallenged · 05/07/2016 10:02

Thank god Cote I thought it was just me!!

GoudyStout · 05/07/2016 10:25

smallfox1980 I know, I've added it as a comment as people seem to want to evaluate the tangible effects rather than consider that there will be effects that just aren't that obvious. Yet.

youneedtobrushallofthem · 05/07/2016 11:08

Purchasing Managers Index data is now out for Service sector, in addition to Manufacturing and Construction.

The vast majority of the data was collected pre-vote, so is a referendum effect, rather than a Brexit effect, and seems to be summarised as:

Manufacturing: Chugging along nicely

Services: Still growing - just - but weakening

Construction: Car Crash

I guess these numbers for July will be the most eagerly awaited since their invention! And we'll find out whether the anecdotal evidence and ad-hoc announcements are isolated incidents or part of a dramatic downward trend...Sad

Dawndonnaagain · 05/07/2016 11:16

Financial Stability Warnings
Just released.

sorenofthejnaii · 05/07/2016 11:27

I notice that the warnings aren't being mentioned in pro Brexit paper.

Maybe if the press don't report them, then they haven't happened and aren't an issue?

smallfox1980 · 05/07/2016 11:31

No its like prior to the vote, they don't want to hear from experts.

Mistigri · 05/07/2016 11:56

It doesnt help that that they are led by economic halfwits

mobile.twitter.com/johngapper/status/750271361382252544

nauticant · 05/07/2016 13:21

Aviva Investors has suspended trading in its property trust, following one from Standard Life Investments the other day.

The asset manager says “extraordinary market circumstances” have led to “a lack of immediate liquidity” in the Aviva Investors Property Trust.

TheElementsSong · 05/07/2016 13:29

Nothing to see here, everyone Sad

nauticant · 05/07/2016 13:35

The FTSE 250 is looking a bit peaky. Sorry, I meant a bit troughy.

youneedtobrushallofthem · 05/07/2016 13:42

nauticant Grin

DoinItFine · 05/07/2016 14:12

How unusual is it for funds to stop allowing redemptions?

CoteDAzur · 05/07/2016 14:18

Very unusual.

TheElementsSong · 05/07/2016 14:31

Sterling has not stabilised against the dollar:
www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/pound-sterling-31-year-low-dollar-exchange-rate-brexit-eu-referendum-a7120651.html

StatisticallyChallenged · 05/07/2016 14:54

Fairly unusual Doinitfine. I know for a fact that SL did it before - might have been a delayed redemption rather than outright stop- back during the credit crunch but it's not common.

GoudyStout · 05/07/2016 15:01

Possibly more common for property funds though, given they are illiquid. We had a ISA a few years back in a property fund that sank and then was frozen. We were told that we would get some cash back but it would take time to liquidate the assets.

StatisticallyChallenged · 05/07/2016 15:03

Definitely, I was answering with property funds in mind rather than thinking broader.

Globetrotter100 · 05/07/2016 15:10

Aviva has just followed suit with their Investors Property Trust.

It's a GBP property bloodbath.

Globetrotter100 · 05/07/2016 15:12

Oh, I see I'm guilty of not reading previous posts which have already mentioned Aviva, in my haste to share the bad news Smile

Globetrotter100 · 05/07/2016 15:21

I also note that safe haven GBP denominated gold is now up over a whopping great big 20% since voting day a mere 12 days ago.

ToastDemon · 05/07/2016 15:24

Not looking good today is it?

ToastDemon · 05/07/2016 15:25

Apparently it's all because the Remainers "talked the UK down" though.

nauticant · 05/07/2016 15:29

So when I come to sell my house I just get a load of Remainers to talk up house prices for a couple of weeks and I cash in at a 10 - 20% premium? Sounds absolutely fantastic!

CoteDAzur · 05/07/2016 15:32

Is there anything about this graph that suggests a "stabilized" Pound?

Actual economic effects...