Actual economic effects...

[Spinflight]

FTSE closed on Wednesday at 6138. Closed on Friday at 6138.

Long term borrowing rates have come down as brexit appeared more likely, 10yr ones from 2% down to 1.09% post brexit. Similarly all the European long term borrowing rates rose sharply. Lesson? We are a less risky and more credit worthy outside the EU than in.

One ratings agency did drop our credit worthiness, though oddly the last time they did was out of fear of Eurozone contagion. Seems completely at odds with the long term borrowing rates, which matter quite a great deal given our debts.

The pound dropped, quite significantly. It appears however that there was some 'unusual' activity in the market which forced it down whenever the Leave campaign polled well. To the extent of trying to sell it when there were no buyers.

Some people lost a great deal of money, probably dwarfing the millions contributed to the remain campaign, lets hope it was Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. :)

Hopefully not after his utterly woeful performance so far.

But possibly.

'I don't believe an economy with its own currency at 60 odd million people is going to be in recession forever'

There are plenty of economies where this is so. With even more people. It's why a lot of countries use the dollar even when it's not their official currency because theirs is so heavily devalued.

But hey, it's all their fault. Their negativity caused the devaluation of their currency. They just need to think themselves strong again, pull together and all that.

I'm off to think myself a lotto winner.

Surely if it were that simple, we'd have done it already?

I'm not saying it's quite tha5 simple.

But we have now had 6 yearsvof elective austerity and it is clearly not working on any measure at all.

And still our Chancellor is committed to it.

It's almost as if there is some othe4 reason for pursuing it...

We cannot trade with the EU without free movement.

Of course we can. We are both members of the WTO.

We just can't be part of the free trade atea, and all that represents.

Oh God. Please not more Osborne. Can't his family give him a wallpaper job?

Do people genuinely think that Brexit has turned us into Zimbabwe in less than a fortnight?

If the economy and our currency were that weak, Brexit would be the least of our worries.

'Do people genuinely think that Brexit has turned us into Zimbabwe in less than a fortnight?'

Plenty of people are speculating on just that. Whether or not their speculation will prove profitable is anyone's guess, but there are more than a few betting on it. I'm abroad just now reading news coverage of it from their angle.

All of a sudden the UK has become an attractive destination for American and Canadian tourists. I also heard a family discuss college with their kids over dinner. The UK universities are on the table as an option for college because of the devaluation.

I live here in the US and I think the best outcome for the UK is for Trump to get in and not HC. He has stated that he wants allies who have stood by the U.S. to have favourable agreements (both trade and military). HC is bought by the banks. No good agreement is likely to come from her administration.

The FBI findings from her email were buried yesterday, the day after July 4th when everyone is out. They aren't charging her but the findings are scathing (as they should be). Others who have done similiar in the government have seen jail. She should too.

I think the best outcome for the UK is for Trump to get in and not HC.

😂😂😂😂

If Trump gets in the entire world will burn or move to Canada.

Actually I'm waiting to hear what HCs plans are. The fact she doesn't have any concrete plans on paper is telling. Right now trump is more against wars and imposing America on the rest of the world. Both HC and Trump scare me but HC is such a filthy politican who knows how to work the system. Trump doesn't know how to work the system so congress will be able to contain him. It's an election where we have to decide between the lesser of two evils. Sadly I think Trump is the lesser evil.

Also, Trump is very pro UK compared to HC who would follow the same tone of relationship that Obama has. I think, for the UK, Trump is a far better person to have in the White House for the UK.

I am interested to hear about trade agreements with Russia. Do we keep a trade embargo or open up trade? It's a huge political decision to make and an important one for the UK economy.

As far as housing is concerned, I'm under 40 and have skin in the game. I think lower property prices for everyone's benefit. Yes I will lose money on the places I own and rent out, but over the long run, I believe affordable housing is pivotal to improved living standards as it gives everyone much more disposable income plus an ability to save some money for their retirement, emergencies etc.

May should be setting out the broad terms of the plan, why is Javid the only one showing any leadership? I always thought he should have gone for leader instead of Crabb.

There is no going back

Of course there fucking is. Why is everyone in Parliament determined to follow the other sheep over the cliff?

why is Javid the only one showing any leadership I'm hoping it's his way of wooing May and the grassroots and putting himself forward as Chancellor. Hope he wins them over. I like him. I also like his Humpty Dumpy but in a good way looks.

Javid is creating a perfect platform to be deputy or even PM. Right now I think he is demonstrating excellent leadership.

putting himself forward as Chancellor

Well clearly. My point is why is the prospective Chancellor setting out the post-Brexit plan, rather than the prospective leader?

May should be setting out the general plan, Javid should be deliniating the economic details.

Guaranteeing EU workers the right to remain and his proposals for the Brexit package: 'UK law must be supreme, and the UK government must have full control of our immigration policy' these are political rather than specifically economic issues. This should be coming from the leader-in-waiting.

After vote when Osborne went to ground for several days it was Javid dealing with the media trying to reassure people about the economy.

Cameron just buggered off.

If May has any sense as a politician she won't announce any 'plan' until she has sat down in a room with Merkel, Hollande & co and got an idea of what is going to be practically achievable.

'I don't believe an economy with its own currency at 60 odd million people is going to be in recession forever'

No such thing as forever but a significant length of time is a definite possibility.

Are you too young to have noticed Japan's long recession when it happened?

Right now, someone has got to reassure the country and the city that there is person in this government who has any kind of plan as to what might happen next. The details can come later.

It's not down to Merkel and Hollande, it's down to the UK.

Cote YY to Japan. The reasons may or may not be completely different, but something unprecedented has just happened - unprecedented consequences may follow.

Manon I'm afraid I think it is down to Merkel and Hollande. We only hold one card, and that's when to Trigger Article 50. Once that's done, the clock's ticking and everyone knows it.

The best possible outcome for the economy from this position seems, to me, to be a swift declaration that we would like stay in the EEA at whatever price that may be. I'm not confident of that though.

If we don't protect the financial services industry we are going to have a hole so big that the Japan scenario looks more and more realistic.
People will have their views on the morality or social utility of the City but they don't half put in to the coffers. Take that away and it really is a long hard road.

Are you too young to have noticed Japan's long recession when it happened?

Nope.

But that was in response to the idea that Brexit inevitably means a downward slide that goes on forever.

Trump doesn't know how to work the system so congress will be able to contain him

If USA still has a Republican congress then it will be a case of the body wagging the head. President is supposed to propose legislation, Congress enacts it. This is why Obama struggled to get much done: Congress had a policy of opposing everything Obama proposed. Now what do you think the Republicans will achieve if they have both White House & both branches of Congress (and the Supreme Court, at this rate). Congress will write the legislation for Trump & he doesn't care for details on most issues. Every domestic special issue will get addressed & that's about it with an international isolationist Prez like Trump proposes to be. Be Afraid. Very Afraid.

Economic people here, so this seems the place to ask.

What do you make of the BoE easing of Capital Control on banks. I thought that was in place to protect the banks against a bank run.

So either the risk of bank runs has shrunk or they are exposing the banks to possibility of failing if there was a run?

Please correct me, as I'm unsure on this and this is why I'm asking.

www.reuters.com/article/britain-eu-property-henderson-group-idUSL8N19S3PC

Three more UK property funds have suspended trading, preventing investors from getting their money back and joining a trend that has prompted a rise in calls from savers to the financial services complaints body.

Henderson Global Investors, part of Henderson Group , said on Wednesday it had temporarily suspended trading in its 3.9 billion pound ($5 billion) UK Property PAIF and PAIF feeder funds due to "exceptional liquidity pressures" given uncertainty after the "Brexit" vote and the other suspensions. ... Columbia Threadneedle ... suspended trading in its Threadneedle UK Property Fund ... Canada Life ... also suspended its Canlife Property and Canlife UK property funds.