EU Trade agreement options

[ElizabethG81]

As I understand it, to retain access to the single market, we would have to agree to freedom of movement, contribute financially to the EU and abide by their laws. Yet we wouldn't have any say and wouldn't be able to vote on anything. A Free Trade Agreement would not allow access to the single market and is much less favourable.

What is it the Brexiters are hoping to negotiate? Do they accept that we would have to agree to the above terms if we want access to the single market? Or do they think we wouldn't have to? What's their alternative, do they think a Free Trade Agreement would be "enough"?

While it is true that there is a trade deficit, EU trade makes up 13% of our GDP but only 3% of their GDP. It's not really true that they need us more than we need them.

How are people still not understanding this?

It's absolutely true that a bad trade deal would hurt the EU economy, but it would hurt the UK much more. And the EU is actually ready to take some degree of economic loss, for political reasons. This mean that it has the upper hand, it's up to it to decide whether it would rather make an example of the UK, or protect the European economy, or (most likely) some compromise between the two.

I'm hoping for a free trade agreement with the EU, my wish to leave was nothing to do with immigration.

What I'm most wanting is the freedom to negotiate our own worldwide agreements as the EU stand firmly in the way of our ability to do this.

The biggest potential for growth is with the emerging world economies. By looking inwards at the EU we are limiting our potential.

No other trading block has the degree of integration of everything else the EU has aimed for in its pursuit of a superstate that far exceeds that of the free trade agreement it was intended to be. I think that the UK vote has started the dominoes effect. Question now is, will the EU respond to stop the rot by increasing its stranglehold on member nations or relinquish its march towards ever increasing integration?

For those suggesting that my wish for delay is because the future isn't bright outside the EU, you're wrong.

Those who voted leave did so for differing reasons, just as the Remain voters didn't do so for the same motives. Of course there is a faction that wishes to close our borders and leaving the EU was for nationalistic reasons. Then there are those who just want to take out place on the world stage.

We need time to find out what the majority of people want. That means finding the consensus of all of us, this makes it vital that the Remain voters use their might to dilute the extreme fringe of Leave voters and push for negotiation of free trade and accept that immigration will remain as it is.

To invoke article 50 before we have consensus as to the route forward would cause more damage to the UK, EU, and world economies than necessary. It's in everyone's benefits to wait for a clear majority view as to what we will negotiate for and what we will compromise on in return for it.

So Remain people, the U.K. Has never needed you more to dilute the extreme views of those who want to close the UK to anything EU.

To invoke article 50 before we have consensus as to the route forward would cause more damage to the UK, EU, and world economies than necessary. It's in everyone's benefits to wait for a clear majority view

Britain just spent months arguing over an A or B decision, and I haven't seen a "clear consensus" emerge. What makes you think one will ever emerge about the way to move forward now, when the potential solutions are complex, variable, and dependent on what the EU has to say?

And if a consensus were to miraculously emerge, how would we know? Polls? Referendum? Elections?

To invoke article 50 before we have consensus as to the route forward

I actually laughed out loud there. Consensus? Between who? On what? The referendum basically showed that the electorate is split down the middle, and nothing that has happened since Thursday night has given any indication that any member of the government or the leave campaign knows what to do next (apart from toss the hot potato to someone else).

Oh it's not just split down the middle, it's split into multiple factions.

There are those who want to raise the drawbridge and shut out the world, there are those who want a free trade agreement and weren't influenced by immigration at all. There are all variations between the 2.

People voting leave didn't do so with the same vision in mind, just as those voting remain had differing reasons for their vote.

It's time to debate what comes next and the remain voters will play a key part in that...thank god! The remain vote will dilute the extreme nationalistic fringe.

Apparently EU want Article 50 to be invoked & the withdrawal agreement concluded before negotiating any trade deal. That means it could be at least 4 or 5 years before any trade agreement is in place.

Although Mark Carney managed to reassure & stabilise the UK markets yesterday they will be precarious for some time to come. We only produce 60% of our food & if the value of the £ is low the costs of importing food will be high. Retailers have said they expect an increase in prices.

In the meantime it will be difficult to make new trade deals that are better than the existing ones we have with the EU . The special relationship with the US has always been overstated. Many countries are interested in access markets but less keen on other countries having access to their markets. Uncertainty will prevent new Foreign Direct Investment materialising from now on so new jobs won't be created & existing ones will be lost.

Here in Scotland there is a new surge of support for independence. There was a cabinet meeting this morning & Nicola Sturgeon says she will seek immediate discussions to protect Scotland's place in the EU. Kezia Dugdale has refused to rule out Scottish Labour supporting Indyref2.

And it appears Brexit has no strategy!

The referendum debate has certainly increased my knowledge in arcane areas such as passporting:

www.bankofengland.co.uk/pra/Pages/authorisations/passporting/default

This paper has a clearly written summary of the different possible trade agreement options.

Politically, though, EU institutions and leaders are in no mood to offer the UK any kind of deal:

• They've got to keep other populist movements in check by making an example of the UK.

• The UK has just spat on a highly cherished exercise in post-war unity.

• And they've already spent 43 years listening to UK governments endlessly complaining, and placating them with opt-outs on foreign and security policy, social policy, the euro, and the rebate. There won't be any concessions now.

They'll probably subsidise any industries affected by losing the UK market rather than give the UK an inch.

RiceCrispieTreats, thanks for the link, it clarified a lot of things for me. Very interesting, especially in how it tackles eurosceptic misconceptions about Britain's future relationship with emerging economies and the rest of the world.