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Brexit

I'm still on the fence and will spend the rest of the evening reading all sorts, but for now I have two questions:

41 replies

WhereTheFuckIsWonderWoman · 22/06/2016 20:09

Sorry if they've been covered in other threads:

  1. I've heard that if we leave it comes with a clause that allows us to re-enter the EU within five years. Is there any truth in this?

  2. I also heard (fairly certain it was in the Standard) that this referendum is actually just our opportunity to say to parliament that we want them to vote on it. Given that 70% of MPs are said to be on the remain side, this presumably means that even if Brexit wins at the polls there's no guarantee at all that we actually leave Confused

Oh and a third:
Can someone talk Turkey to me? Are they definitely likely to become a member in the near future?

Thank you!

OP posts:
BurnTheBlackSuit · 22/06/2016 22:08

I don't understand why people care about Turkey joining or not anyway? What's wrong with Turkey?

BagelGoesWalking · 22/06/2016 22:09
  1. I am most worried about Turkey.

Yes, everyone says they're not coming into the EU for years BUT with the ongoing refugee crisis, I think a deal may be made so that Turkey "keeps" many many more refugees than ever before, in return for EU membership. And, if they and other countries join in 10 or 20 years, it will have a profound effect on the future of my children and ant future grandchildren.

My DH is an immigrant from a non-eu country. I am NOT against immigration but I am very worried about the sheer volume of potential immigration, the effect on housing, services, water, sewage and other resources.

fryingtoday · 22/06/2016 22:14

Enough of Sheila Hancock. I'd go to the pub if I wanted to hear such rambling irrelevance

Hamishandthefoxes · 22/06/2016 22:18

Bagel, I don't think there is the slightest possibility of turkey being allowed I soon, but your concerns about management of immigration are completely valid.

The problem with those concerns is that they're all national - I.e the fault if our own incompetent lazy governments of all descriptions who didn't bother to include any of the restrictions on entry yo new joiners that most other EU countries legitimately did and also didn't plan for adequate infrastructure and housing while systematically dismantling the unions.

I would hope the tenseness of this referendum and the fact that a very substantial proportion if the country will be unhappy whatever the outcome serves as s very blunt message for the government to get their arses in gear and sort out the mess instead of hoping the market may one day work everything out.

RedToothBrush · 22/06/2016 22:19

There can't be a deal made.

It has to go to a French referendum for membership.
To change that, they would have to go through the French parliament and change the law.
The government even with all its allies doesn't have enough votes to manage a majority big enough.
There are French elections never year. Le Pen is likely to do even better than previously.
This makes it EVEN MORE unlikely it will get past the French.

That's discounting what anyone else will do, or how they will object.

There is no deal to be made. Even if the leaders of Germany and France or anywhere else wanted one.

Kimononono · 22/06/2016 22:19

Yes bagel that's how I feel too.

I worry for my girls if Turkey get in. I worry that there will be a too bigger culture clash.

Kimononono · 22/06/2016 22:22

Im shocked (?) there can be two solid differnt opinions on what's going to happen regarding Turkey. What the hell is the truth?

Mistigri · 22/06/2016 22:30

The truth is that there is an established process for the accession of new countries to the EU, which sets minimum standards (for their economy, human rights etc). Turkey comes nowhere near to meeting the standards.

Of course, an attempt could be made to short-circuit this process - but critically, it would require the cooperation of all 28 EU members, some of which (Poland, Hungary) are far more rabidly anti-immigrant and/ or anti-muslim than the UK, and some of which (France and others) have their own issues with the far right would make agreeing to Turkey's accession impossible. I live in France and am interested in French politics and I can tell you that there is no way that the French would vote in favour of Turkish accession. It is even more unlikely than Ukip agreeing to it! We have our own National Front here in France, and it's a bigger electoral force than Farage's lot.

hedgehogsarecute · 22/06/2016 22:31

Agree Turkey may not come into the EU for another 20+ years, but the likelihood is that it will at some stage. The EU ultimately needs to grow and allow other countries in to meet it’s objectives. And it’s not just Turkey, there are several other countries making progress towards joining the EU, and i’m not sure what their state of progress is for accession. We only hear about Turkey.
Kimono agree, Cameron is telling Turkey that it’s their biggest supporter for joining the EU quickly. But he tells the UK, it will never happen Confused.
So he’s been lying / being disingenuous to Turkey? Or he’s lying to the UK people. Either way, not a ringing endorsement for his integrity.

RedToothBrush · 22/06/2016 22:35

Kimononono.

That's genuinely the scandal of this whole campaign. The scale of the misleading. Remain have done some stuff that is dodgy and put a lot of stuff out there that is not accurate, but the Turkey thing has to be one of the biggest misleading claims of the entire EU referendum.

Honestly, have a look into it if you can - look at what the French need to do to allow Turkey in. Look at how many seats the current government have and how many votes they need to change the law and avoid a referendum. Look up how anti-EU French feeling currently is.

I could make this up, but that information is in the public domain if you look for it, so can be checked out. Please DON'T just take my word for it. You need to find this out for yourself so you know what's going on one way or the other.

Look it up. Its there. In black and white, from reputable sources if you do take the time to look it up.

IrenetheQuaint · 22/06/2016 22:36

Plus Greece would veto Turkey too... and given Turkey's increasingly authoritarian government and crap human rights record (plus of course the borders/immigration issue) its application is going nowhere.

The EU just wants to keep friendly relations because they'd rather help Turkey look after Syrian refugees over there than have the refugees coming into the EU.

shinytorch2 · 22/06/2016 23:13

The EU just wants to keep friendly relations because they'd rather help Turkey look after Syrian refugees over there than have the refugees coming into the EU.

Yes Mrs Merkel has elections next year - there's quite a Eurosceptic movement developing in Germany....she doesn't want the migrant crisis scenes to be repeated again after she said "All were welcome in germany."

Elections in France too....these European politicians don't need problems right now, so they will placate Turkey with a few BILLION euros (of all our money) to park the migrants in camps......how long will Turkey's patience last?

I wonder if we are going to be asked for a larger EU contribution this year to cover the cost of this....just like the E1.7billion extra we paid last year because our economy had done well.

Anna2000 · 23/06/2016 00:06

If you are interested in finding out more about the criteria Turkey has to meet if it wanted to become an EU Member State, please have a look at this link: ec.europa.eu/enlargement/policy/conditions-membership/index_en.htm

As others have said, being a candidate for EU membership does not mean that EU membership is imminent or that it will definitely happen. Membership criteria are non-negotiable (even if accession talks were 'accelerated' - this does not mean skipping over criteria) and every existing Member State has a veto.

If you think about it, committing to working towards EU membership is a good thing - surely, there is nothing wrong with wanting to establish democratic processes, fundamental freedoms and human rights...?

Frenchboat · 23/06/2016 00:11

As regards to question no.2

The answer is that technically MPs could block an EU exit - but it would be seen as political suicide to go against the will of the people as expressed in a referendum. The referendum result is not legally binding - Parliament still has to pass the laws that will get Britain out of the 28 nation bloc, starting with the repeal of the 1972 European Communities Act.
The withdrawal agreement would also have to be ratified by Parliament - the House of Lords and/or the Commons could vote against ratification, according to a House of Commons library report.
It adds: "If the Commons resolves against ratification, the treaty can still be ratified if the Government lays a statement explaining why the treaty should nonetheless be ratified and the House of Commons does not resolve against ratification a second time within 21 days (this process can be repeated ad infinitum)."
In practice, Conservative MPs who voted to remain in the EU would be whipped to vote with the government. Any who defied the whip would have to face the wrath of voters at the next general election.
One scenario that could see the referendum result overturned, is if MPs forced a general election and a party campaigned on a promise to keep Britain in the EU, got elected and then claimed that the election mandate topped the referendum one. Two thirds of MPs would have to vote for a general election to be held before the next scheduled one in 2020.

Frenchboat · 23/06/2016 00:11

From the BBC website by the way

WhereTheFuckIsWonderWoman · 23/06/2016 06:52

Thanks all. Decision made.

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