Confused about Brexit Budget Cuts

[TattyCat]

Someone help me out here please and apologies if this has already been covered elsewhere.

George Osborne has said that in the event of Brexit, he will have to raise taxes and slash public spending. Now, given that we give £350m per week (ok, I know this figure is disputed but either way, it's large) to the EU albeit getting some of this figure back, how on earth can this mean that we have less money as a country?

I know we need to repay the national debt and a percentage would be paid towards that, but surely it means we would have more money to distribute as we see fit?

Am I being thick and missing something fundamental? I realise it's a very simplistic view but I really do fail to see how it would mean cutting spending and raising taxes.

Springing i love your passion for leaving but if only all the things you say are going to happen were so clear cut as you make out.

There is absolutely no proof that EU would want to extend talks beyond 2 years. Trade from the UK could then just be rerouted through rest of EU I am sure there are lots of EU business waiting to take over.

The hinckly point deal with china is diabolically bad for UK tax payers. Is anyone keeping score but they are wrecking world trade with their dumping, and lets no even get started on human rights, while we import all there crap.

Free trade might be good with say NZ but what effect would that mean to say sheep farmers in the UK with cheaper lamb coming in and supermarkets switch suppliers, or wool supply etc.

Fishing wise, it was brutal but all the studies at the time were showing we had overcapacity, we were ruining the sea, fish were getting smaller something had to be done. Getting out of the Euro I would hope people don't think we can go back to emptying the sea again.

They banking crashes are pretty much always due to fraud which some predicted but no one did anything. Which is linked to regulation, definitely not the Tories and Labour have wanted to try to sort out the banking sector properly, remember all the banking bonuses after they had gone bust debacle. Again not a EU issue but a general election one.

There is absolutely no proof that EU would want to extend talks beyond 2 years.

Or that they would agree to start informal discussions before Article 50 is triggered. Why would they? The whole point is that Article 50 and its 2-year limit tips the scales in their favour...

btw good luck with your decision TattyCat!

In addition if as Gove has said he holds off with enacting Article 50 - we might have a general election to contend with as well, how is that going to work.

Who would actually be at the negotiating table!

for who asked about what EU countries think about the brexit, I can give you the perspective of some of the countries you mentioned:

Germany /france/ireland are just happily waiting for the big corporations to move to the mainland. If they want to trade with the EU they will need to do it from inside the EU, no sense keeping HQ in the Uk. More in particular, large part of financial services will go straight to Germany or Ireland (for language reasons). pharmaceutical companies the same. I can only think these countries will not be too sad about brexit. Of course this is not something Merkel and concan actually say out loud...

Also, being from EU myself I think the UK has long been perceived as the one always nagging for better and personalised deals. Not really fair. Having UK out of Eu will allow us to get on with it much easier. fFrance and Germany axis will also grow stronger. If people in the uK can't stand behind the European idea then I think they should rightfully leave. Europe is not only about trading and money but also about a communal heritage and idea for the future.

Europe has the numbers to get a good trade deal from the UK as they will be without any significant deal in the short run so willbe pressured by time.

Finally, in 5 years time I am convinced Scotland will get independent and join the EU. Also NI will grow more towards Ireland and have more interest in joining EU as well.

From reading the newspaper in 3/4 west european countries I can assure you that brexit is not a headline at the moment. Noone really believes the majority will actually vote brexit....

Also, being from EU myself I think the UK has long been perceived as the one always nagging for better and personalised deals. Not really fair. Having UK out of Eu will allow us to get on with it much easier. fFrance and Germany axis will also grow stronger. If people in the uK can't stand behind the European idea then I think they should rightfully leave. Europe is not only about trading and money but also about a communal heritage and idea for the future.

Entirely agree with you here (continental myself), I find it fascinating how the UK feels victimized by the EU, while other EU countries think Britain is being treated like a special snowflake. Complete miscommunication.

Also complete miscommunication in terms of what the EU is - it's always been designed to be a serious relationship, Britain only wants to be FWB.

The only thing I disagree about is that I think it could go one of two ways for the EU. If it can weather the storm, then absolutely, deeper integration and stronger Franco-German axis, which I'm all in favour of. But there's also a significant risk of destabilization and unravelling. Which is my biggest fear about Brexit.

I can assure you that brexit is not a headline at the moment. Noone really believes the majority will actually vote brexit....

This x 10.

Good point re NI. We have a longstanding policy that if a majority in NI vote to leave the UK we will accept that, so I can imagine in 10 years Scotland and NI having both left the UK.

Which would be a bit sad, but I guess mean more money for the rest of us as they're expensive regions to subsidise.

problem is... take out NI, take out Scotland, take out big multinationals, take out pharmaceutical, take out parts of financial services, take out all business depending on the big fish ... what will England have to offer to the world? Tourism?