The big picture

[ipsogenix]

Hi,

I keep feeling that there is a big picture that is being missed in the referendum debate and I wondered if others see what I see?

It seems to me that the times we are currently in are rather similar to the times that my grandparents saw in the 20s and 30s.

Back when my Granny was young they went through the roaring 20s which was a time of huge financial excess, kind of like the time that we had in the early 2000s when cars seemed be getting bigger and bigger and sofas were getting bigger and bigger and generally there was a feeling that we were all a bit invincible.

Then back in my Granny's day, the period of excess was followed by a big financial bust called the Great Depression, which had a lot in common with the huge financial crash that we have just had.

In the Depression there was a huge amount of austerity going on as the countries tried to get back on their feet, just like we are seeing now.

Then because of the austerity there was the rise of the far right across Europe as people got angry about the poverty. I think that this is what we are seeing in Europe as all these populist parties come to the fore, like the BNP and UKIP and the party that was nearly voted in in Austria recently.

The next stage in my Granny's day was that the pressure built and built and built, and finally WWII broke out.

I worry that the pressure is building in Europe just now and that there is a risk of some kind of conflict again if we don't all manage to keep our heads and be sensible about it all.

However, I'm not sure whether the sensible thing is to stay in the EU and talk talk talk to solve all these problems, or to come out of Europe in order to take the pressure down a few notches.

I also wonder whether the best thing is for the polls to show clearly our dissatisfaction with Europe and hope that there will be an 11th hour renegotiation of EU rules in just the same way as there was an 11th hour renegotiation of the UK Union just before the Scottish referendum.

I wondered if anyone else sees these parallels and has any good ideas of how to take the pressure out of the situation? I think the rise of all these populist parties across Europe is a clear sign that many many countries are unhappy about how things are going, and that just having a knee-jerk Brexit as a kind of fit of pique is not a very well considered response to what could be a fairly serious build up frustration across the whole continent.

It seems to me that the EU was created so that we would have a talking shop in which problems like this could be diffused by discussion rather than by coming to blows. I really worry about walking away from that talking shop, just as it seems likely to be needed.

I wondered what you all think?

Interestingly, Friends of the Earth has declared itself in favour of Remain because of the EU's enviromental protection measures, and other pro-wildlife charities have taken the same view.

FOE have received large sums of money from the EU, as seen on a list of pro-remain groups who have made referendum interventions:

EU Paid €160 Million to Pro-Remain Groups

"Pro-Remain groups which have made referendum interventions have received €160 million from the Commission in the last nine years"

Fourmummy, I agree that the only way out is for corporations to accept that they'll make less profit, but we both know that the only way that will happen is if they are compelled to spread the spoils out a little more evenly. I also agree that the primary outcome is profit for the few rather than the many. I suspect that it has always been so, except for the short space of time between the end of the second world war and the Thatcher years, when it was possible for a working class kid to have aspirations that were seen to be achievable, and were achievable. I feel that lip service is being paid to this ideal at the moment.

Appletree, there is much that I agree with in your post and I appreciate the fact that you have taken the time to set out your position clearly and calmly. I am not a reader of right wing media and no, I don't trust the Tory government. But to be clear, we have had many years of Labour government too and I am not aware of them doing a great deal for the working wo/man, hence the problems they are facing now with their core voters.

I don't hold up the leaders of Brexit as beacons of light in a darkened world. I don't even consider them to be the best of a bad lot, as I tend to distrust the vast majority of them. A few, such as Kate Hoey and the Beast of Bolsover, I do have time for. I'm completely baffled at how popular Boris is and you may be right that he does not care about immigration, only power.

As to whether the Brexit leadership are motivated by the prospect of getting rid of workers rights, presumably in order to improve growth and profits for the rich, I have no idea. It seems to me that many of the corporations which have lined up to support remain are motivated by the endless supply of cheap labour. Add increased automation into the mix and it's a lose-lose situation for large parts of the working population.

And just to be clear, I make no distinction between British workers and those who have come to work here - everyone is entitled to be treated the same. I suspect they are not though. I suspect migrants, being more vulnerable, are paid less.

Anyway, I am rambling again. It seems to me that we can, at least, hold our own government to account in a way that we cannot hold the EU to account. If we march down Whitehall and bring London to a halt, someone in our own government might listen, but how will that draw the attention of those in Brussels? They wouldn't care. And if we march in relation to something beyond the control of our own government, nothing we can do will bring about change.

Unfortunately, for the sake of my own sanity, I am still undecided and am still soaking up the discussions on MN and elsewhere.

ipsogenix Your 1930s analogy is interesting. There are far right parties gaining ground all over the EU - as Dennis Skinner has pointed out. What will we do if we remain and they have a big majority in the EU parliament? In the 1930s it was better that we were outside and that is probably true now also.

Muddled We can absolutely march down Whitehall, we can stand as a candidate, we can form our own parties, and if your ideas are engaging, then people will engage with them, we can control what our society looks like. 'Free will' ( as much as anyone has) vs imposition. It both begins and ends there.

I agree with so much that's being said on this thread but it doesn't help me decide which way to vote. The fact that if we leave there'll be a GE doesn't fill me with delight because as much as I'd like to see the back of the Conservatives, we have no viable alternative as far as I can see.

Moreover, the acquisition of more and more stuff does not appear to make anyone any happier, and can actually increase anxiety as people are putting themselves into debt to acquire this stuff.

This makes so much sense but I think it's a worldwide problem and not specific to Europe.

Why will there be a GE if we leave? I simply don't see that happening.

as much as I'd like to see the back of the Conservatives, we have no viable alternative as far as I can see.

That will still be just as much the case if we stay in the EU, but perhaps without as much as a shake-up of the Tory party. A "remain" would be seen as an endorsement of what the most "establishment" Tories have been doing so far, along with their big business cronies. Neither Tory or Labour governments last for ever. If they go too far left or right, or annoy enough British citizens, they get voted out, as has been the case repeatedly over the last century.

We can't vote to replace any more than a small percentage of the MEPs, and we don't get any say in who the Commission or Five Presidents are. The EU isn't going to be following the plan the British people ask it to, it already has its own agenda which it wants to promote to us.

Consumerism is a global phenomenon. Take the astounding figures from Singles Day in China last year - Alibaba's sales were over $14.3 bn compared to say, Amazon's US sales on Cyber Monday at $1.35 bn. Leaving the EU doesn't expose us less to the effects of globalisation - Brexit supporters say they want us to do more trade with China and the US, not less, and as I understand it, the argument is for accelerated growth in a "less regulated" environment.

My overall opinion of Europe is that consumerism does not scream at you from every street corner to anything like the same degree as it does in the UK - Sunday trading is a good example where many other European countries have been culturally very against it and still uphold Sunday as a day for spending time with family and not as a day to hit the nearest shopping mall.

The Brexit leaders want us to be more like the U.S. - less regulated. Do some research to see how worker's rights there compare with Europe. I find it hard to believe that Johnson, Gove, Farage have the interests of low-paid workers at heart.

Yes, globalisation causes problems for the less skilled, but this is largely despite, not because of the EU. Sports Direct would still exploit workers and like Dyson move as much production abroad (Malaysia) as it can to countries where worker exploitation is on a scale not seen anywhere in the EU. The EU sets a floor for basic worker rights - paid vacation, maximum hours etc.

If your concern is inequality, taxation and benefits are determined by the UK government. They can have a more equal society if they choose but only if they have a strong enough economy to pay for public services. There is a clear consensus that the economy will suffer for the next few years if we leave. What do you think that means for public services, tax credits etc?

Winterbiscuit Re Friends of the Earth funding Friends of the Earth in the UK receives less than 1% of its total funding from the EU. www.foe.co.uk/page/eu-referendum-environment

Friends of the Earth publishes its accounts on its website, so anyone interested can have a look. The website quoted by Winterbiscuit is a website containing exclusively pro-Brexit articles, so hardly a reliably unbiased source! The 17M+ Euro figure which it quotes FoE as receiving from the EU is considerably more than FoE UK's total income for the last financial year (!) 90% of FoE's income comes from individual donations. Anyway, I leave it to other MNers to decide whether they wish to believe the figures quoted by a website which apparently exists specifically to promote Brexit, or whether they believe the figures contained in FoE's audited accounts on its website.

I don't have time to respond to others' posts at present, but am interested in your views and will try to find the time to reply.

Consumerism and profit-chasing are not specific to the EU, no doubt about that. Classical Marxism. In other words, producers (workers), who are also consumers, buying mindlesss tat work their fingers to the bone so that the cream is skimmed off by the owners. However, what no-one could have foreseen was this very process going global. The EU's mistake was to take a wrong turn by becoming beholden to these globalised corporations skimming off the profits - the banks and other large conglomerates, who now have tentacles in every sphere (Goldman Sachs - the 'vampire squid'). The EU's embroilment with banks and other such-like organisations is not controversial, has been written about extensively and I won't repeat it here. What people don't realise, perhaps, is that these organisations expect a return on their investment. Like Hillary, if you accept millions of dollars in funding from Qatar, the Saudis and Goldman Sachs, you are not going to be free to do what you want. A return on the investment is expected. Same issue with the EU. This is most clearly seen in the European migrant crisis. Europeans stopped reproducing so there are fewer producers and also consumers of mindless tat. Cue influx of these.

The EU is not a free decision making body because it has so many, often shady, links with the globalised corporates ( well-documented elsewhere). It will never be free to make decisions that don't benefit these structures. We have two options - Remain, with more of the same, or Leave and try to unwind those tentacles by creating a society that the people, not corporations, want. We may not succeed. Or we might. We just don't know. I am not a Marxist or a communist - these systems are hugely damaging to human societies, as we've seen. But who knows? Maybe a form of 'caring capitalism' or a co-operative-type of capitalism might work for us. A democratic, co-operative capitalism. A social democratic capitalism (a genuine one). We do know one thing, though. If we Remain, we will be drawn ever further by those Goldman Sachs tentacles into the centre of a totally uncaring capitalism, which only functions for the very few. The Tories are small fry compared to that. Boris- meh. Their careers can be ended quickly if they don't perform - by the people. I'd rather take my chances with the Tories than fight Goldman Sachs. The few crumbs from the rich man's table to keep the workers happy such as cleaner beaches are nothing compared to the price that we really pay.

This is an interesting thread. I see other interesting parallels too, showing the need for balance, and the need for large countervailing forces to maintain world stability.

Look at what happened when the Berlin Wall fell and the ussr broke up. Lots of people saw this as a sort of 'final victory' for 'liberal capitalism' as an organising model. Frances Fukayama even famously proclaimed 'the end of history', on the basis that things couldn't get any better. In reality, what we got was the rise of the worst forms of nationalism, religious fundamentalism and crony autocracy.

When you destabilise a power block in the name of democracy and (let's be honest) nationalism, it seems to me that you should be very careful what you wish for.

Nobody is pretending the EU is perfect, but it is a significant political power block. It is hardly surprising that president Putin is not exactly pro-remain.

It is also disturbing, but again not surprising, to see hedge funds lining up to make currency gains from the decline of sterling. They are the only winners here.

The EU is not a free decision making body because it has so many, often shady, links with the globalised corporates ( well-documented elsewhere). It will never be free to make decisions that don't benefit these structures.

Absolutely right fourmummy. The EU has its own agenda regardless of what ordinary people want.

*When you destabilise a power block in the name of democracy and (let's be honest) nationalism, it seems to me that you should be very careful what you wish for.

Nobody is pretending the EU is perfect, but it is a significant political power block. It is hardly surprising that president Putin is not exactly pro-remain. *

Agree with this. Also agree with Justchanged's post.

"I don't hold up the leaders of Brexit as beacons of light in a darkened world. I don't even consider them to be the best of a bad lot, as I tend to distrust the vast majority of them. A few, such as Kate Hoey and the Beast of Bolsover, I do have time for. "

Please do bear in mind that it is the likes of Johnson, Gove, Duncan-Smith and Grayling to whom you will be helping to hand power if you vote Leave, not the likes of Hoey or Skinner. (I think the prospects of Dennis Skinner being invited to join a Boris Johnson cabinet are fairly slim )

"When you destabilise a power block in the name of democracy and (let's be honest) nationalism, it seems to me that you should be very careful what you wish for."

So we should give up our democracy because we're too scared to leave the bloc that wants it? Where is the Remain side's courage?

it is the likes of Johnson, Gove, Duncan-Smith and Grayling to whom you will be helping to hand power if you vote Leave

If you vote Remain you will be helping to give up more of this country's power to Osborne, Cameron, Merkel, Juncker and numerous distant bureaucrats in Brussels.

We can at least vote for a different government at the next general election. When is the next EU referendum?

"Where is the Remain side's courage?" I don't see giving careful consideration to the possible consequences of de-stabilising a large power block as indicating a lack of courage.

If you vote Remain you will be helping to give up more of this country's power to Osborne, Cameron, Merkel, Juncker and numerous distant bureaucrats in Brussels. A number of points here. Firstly, if we stay in the EU under a Tory government, the government's ability to pursue certain right wing policies such as taking away workers' rights or removing environmental protections in the interests of pursuing profits for large corporations will at least be tempered by EU law as a counterbalance. A lot of pro-Leavers seem to take it as a given that the British government will always act in the interests of the British people whereas policies in Brussels will always act against the interests of ordinary British people. I don't see that as a given at all, and I don't see it as a good thing for governments (yes, even democratically elected ones) to have unfettered power whilst in office. Nearly all other countries have a written constitution which (at least in the context of genuine democracies) sets limits on a government's power whilst in office and doesn't allow it unfettered power just because it has managed to garner a majority in parliament.

Secondly, pro-Leaver denials notwithstanding, there is a huge amount of consensus from the experts that a Leave vote will be damaging to Britain's economy. The consequent reduced tax take for the government would inevitably lead to much more severe austerity policies than those we have seen to date. So I see the prospect of living under a Tory government following a Brexit vote as much worse than living under a Tory government whilst in the EU.

Thirdly, if we lose our seat at the EU table, we will have less power, not more. British companies exporting goods or services to the EU will still have to comply with EU standards, but there will be no British government at the table to lobby on behalf of British industry if the EU is considering imposing rules that will be damaging.

Fourthly, notwithstanding all the "They need us more than we need them" rhetoric coming from the Leave campaign, Britain is clearly going to be in a very weak bargaining position in trying to re-negotiate access to the markets of the organisation it has just opted out of. If Britain's bargaining position against a bloc of 27 other countries was really so strong, we would have seen much more "give" when Cameron went off to try to negotiate with the rest of the EU. So I think we will have less power vis a vis Merkel if we leave the EU.

I don't see giving careful consideration to the possible consequences of de-stabilising a large power block as indicating a lack of courage.

The EU is failing and destabilising itself anyway, and I think it's better for us to walk away now. But my point is that people have made huge sacrifices for democracy, around the world and through the ages. Leaving the EU doesn't seem comparable at all.

How much loss of democracy would you accept before challenging what was happening? Taking it to an extreme, would you happily live under a totalitarian regime, because at least the people inside aren't fighting each other as they're controlled so they can't?

Winter That's an excellent argument. Relatedly, DH and I have been saying something similar to each other over the past few months. Just because there may be no perfect democracy or meritocracy does not mean that we shouldn't continue to strive for it.

Thanks fourmummy