What do you expect to happen after a leave vote?

[Mistigri]

This isn't a partisan in-out question, it's about people's expectations of what noticeable changes they expect to see both immediate 2 year period after the referendum, and in the medium term (let's say 2-5 years).

It seems that people are getting excited in a way that suggests they expect a short term change for the better, which implies that they expect noticeable positive differences in their own lives fairly soon after the election. And others are worried because they expect significant negative changes.

So, what do you expect to change, and how quickly?

[Mistigri]

Sorry for the typos :( (my eyes are getting too old for small screens) and "election" should read "referendum" obviously!

[Chalalala]

The pound falling sharply, and immediately, is the obvious one

Just in time for my trip to France, too... to really rub it in

[ajandjjmum]

We're in the States for the referendum - bought lots of dollars in advance!

[ThroughThickAndThin01]

I don't know anyone who thinks that there will be positive differences in the short term. It's quite obvious there won't be. That doesn't mean people shouldn't vote to leave.

[lalalonglegs]

Run on currency, fall in house prices in hotspots such as London, Cameron resignation and Johnson premiership followed by a "phoney war" period during the Brexit negotiations and an attempt to reverse the decision in Parliament. Attempts in Scotland to rally troops for another independence referendum.

Although I'm not convinced that Brexiting would make a huge difference to immigration legally (and immigration isn't something that I get hot under the collar about anyway), I think a lot of people would repatriate/not move here in the first place because the economy would falter and they might feel just a little unwelcome.

[justbogoff]

Short term the pound will collapse against the dollar (this will kill businesses that import).

For two years we will have uncertainty which means the economy suffers. Massively.

I have been in meetings with politicians, they are going to make their plan once they get a vote. They are not sensible they have no idea what an brexit situation looks like.

Every major party except the conservatives are for remain. But it appears that most people don't understand this.

I will be okay regardless, I have qualifications and sense, our employees who could take our company down with their "out" vote aren't so lucky.

But it's not my job to educate them, I know that 6 months down the line they'll be complaining about redundancies.

Cry me a fucking river.

[Spinflight]

Not a lot. Not initially at least.

There will be a Y2K atmosphere of 'what happened to the doom' and some georgous pictures of really very upset Blair, Cameron, Clarke, Mandelson etc.

There will be lots of navel gazing and remainiacs telling us that because the Orkneys didn't have a majority for leave that the result wasn't clear enough to trigger Article 50.

Lots of MPs will threaten to undo the referendum, lots of large businesses and banking houses will issue press releases saying they 'may' have to sack one meeellion employees ( with little pinky finger in side of mouth).

The EU itself will go into meltdown and demand that the referendum be re-run because Boris uttered a statement which wasn't necessarily even untrue.

Lots of politicians and ex politicians will tell people how stupid they are, then how they have failed them in not explaining their message clearly, then challenging the legitimacy of the referendum, then explain that they have listened to their concerns, then that having listened to their concerns were going to do whatever they said they never would.

Eventually some brightish spark will decide that the people were not given enough information, or that they were given the wrong information or too much information and the electoral commision will decide after much knashing of teeth ( and thumb screws) that there is a case for the referendum to be re-run.

Cameron will refuse to enact article 50, there will be rather a large outcry.

Then he will compromise, enact article 50 but re-negotiate in the interim 2 years and offer another referendum on the outcome of the negotiations. And this time he really really means it!

Once he has done this he will be quietly knifed in the back and dumped in the political Thames.

Note that the Irish referendum was re-run because they gave the wrong answer on the sole basis of conscription. My Irish friends never recall it being mentioned in the campaign though the second was was rather better funded on the EU side...

[justbogoff]

Not a lot?
You have no fucking idea about the currency impact on our economy do you?
Can't argue with stupid - i'm out.

[HugoBear]

For certain, the pound will tank, and imported goods (I.e. most goods, because we have a trade deficit) will get more expensive.

After that, it all depends on how bad the Pound gets. The Bank of England may have to raise interest rates to hold up the Pound. This will hit many who have mortgages they can barely afford, and coupled with the price rises we will see a raise in repossession. Who knows how many.

Inward investment will fall dramatically.

And then we get to the stage that was the Plan all along - to turn Britain into a low-tax, low-regulation haven. Imagine a Britain where the head of Sports Direct doesn't have to go to Parliament to answer questions about working conditions but gets a Knighthood instead, and that won't be so far removed from Brexit Britain.

[Spinflight]

Lol,

Even the dodgy dossier treasury report found a 2% growth compared to 1.9% under brexit.

And that without considering any of the benefits of brexit, but even fisheries!

So justbogoff tell me what the noticeable difference is in 0.1 percent per annum, and that under a worst case scenario.

I think you are trying to Blair us.

[GhostofFrankGrimes]

Economic turmoil. Political fighting - both for power and how "best" to run the UK.

Lots of people scratching their heads as to why Brexit didn't quite turn out to be the utopia they expected.

[Mistigri]

I think less will happen than many are expecting in the first couple of years (we'll still be in the EU for at least 2 years, of course).

Of course the pound will fall and so will inward investment, but it won't have an immediate impact on most people. The main immediate impact will be the political fall out - surely Cameron would have to go? I think May might get the nod as the closest available thing to a consensus candidate - I'm no fan, but the alternatives are alarming and she would be a safe pair of hands.

I'm curious as to how soon leave voters expect to see positive results, because the leave campaign has promised to do an awful lot with that £350 million. What will happen if, in a year or two's time, the NHS is still struggling due to underfunding, and immigration hasn't fallen?

[BurnTheBlackSuit]

Spinfight- that was brilliantly written!!

[Spinflight]

Thank you BurnTheBlackSuit, I'm here all week!

"I'm curious as to how soon leave voters expect to see positive results, because the leave campaign has promised to do an awful lot with that £350 million. What will happen if, in a year or two's time, the NHS is still struggling due to underfunding, and immigration hasn't fallen?"

Fair questions, to answer which I have to refer to one Nigel Farage ( boo hiss!).

The Leave campaign is not presenting a manifesto. Come the 24th the despicable subreptile tories will still be in power. Sorry chaps but this isn't a general election and you all screwed the pooch last year so will have to live with the consequences of a tory government.

That being said maybe we can hope that the leavers are slightly less reptilian, shifty and may take account of the public mood. I'm assuming that asshat Cameron is toast here.

There will be considerable pressure on the government to reduce immigration, and shorn of their EU related excuses I honestly think they would have to act.

Can you imagine Boris waffling about how his referendum speeches were merely an ambition?...

.....

Yes, well, so can I actually...

Hmm.. Is there much point here trying to pretend that all politicians aren't lying toads? I think it's likely they would act, not certain though....

The NHS would certainly get more money, but really not much changes. The first trade deal signed would be big news, fisheries having a boom similar to a gold rush etc but fundamentally you still have a tory government with a slim majority.

Hell even if the treasury is spot on...

" But of course there was a significant shortfall in real GDP growth over the previous three years leaving the level of GDP around 2¼ per cent lower in 2014-15 than we had forecast in 2010."

That's from the Office for Budget Responsibility, who were set up because the treasury were so... shit at predicting anything. They'd predict whatever their current masters told them to.

That quote though represents a loss of predicted growth which dwarfs the treasuries brexit prediction over a 4 year period, not 15 years.

2 1/4% lower is a whole lot more than 6% less growth.. See the language? One measures absolute growth, the other relative.

I'm trying to point out that not a lot changes, though not sure how successful I'm being at it!

[antimatter]

I expect recruitment freeze and serious cost cuttings in many companies. This will slow down economy. Whilst politicians scratch their heads companies will be deciding whether stay in London or move to Europe to be closer to their market.
Would they move to Luxembourg, Amsterdam or Frankfurt?

My company is letting go off all possible contractors, at my boyfriend's place there are rounds of redundancies for permanent staff.
Hard for me to say what's happening at other places but one of my old employers laid off 15% their employees worldwide.

There's a lot of instability in many European countries. Right wing parties are getting stronger and stronger.

I enjoyed this article even though it's few weeks old
www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2016/05/11/the-cross-ideological-debate-over-brexit/

[Mistigri]

So Spinflight, to return to the topic, what do you expect to happen in the 2 years following a leave vote? In the 5 years?

When do you expect immigration to fall? How long will it take NHS services to improve? What's the timescale for wage rises for low-paid workers?

[Limer]

In the 2 years following a leave vote, the Eurozone will be mired in deeper economic crisis and the far right will increase their power. Unemployment rates will continue to climb. There'll be unrest in most of the EU associated with all this, and as a result of the ongoing migrant crisis, which shows no sign of stopping. Within 5 years, Denmark, Sweden, France and the Netherlands will all demand referendums and will all vote to leave.

Immigration will fall as soon as the UK can introduce a skills-based entry system.

NHS services will improve as soon as the UK can control the numbers from the EU making demands on it, and invest money previously handed to the EU back in the NHS.

Wages will rise for low-paid workers when they're no longer in competition with millions from poorer EU countries.

[GhostofFrankGrimes]

NHS services will improve as soon as the UK can control the numbers from the EU making demands on it, and invest money previously handed to the EU back in the NHS.

You assume the Tories will invest in the NHS?

Wages will rise for low-paid workers when they're no longer in competition with millions from poorer EU countries

because globalisation and capitalism the systems that dictate pay will magically disappear over night?

I'm sorry but some of this Brexit stuff is absolutely bonkers.

[Justchanged]

The pound falling will have a large impact on everyone. A fall in the pound means rising import prices (that large trade deficit with Europe is because we import far far more than we export), so the price of most goods will rise. This means rising inflation which may mean that the BoE needs to consider raising interest rates. The combined result of rising prices and higher interest rates is a cut in real wages for everyone.

There will be several years of uncertainty while we negotiate a trade deal. During this period expect a collapse in inward investment, as well as major multinationals consider whether to move their EU headquarters to somewhere more stable. The result - a fall in tax receipts easily enough to outweigh an reduction in payments to the EU.

[Chalalala]

Buoyed by a new sense of national confidence, England beat Germany in the final of the euro cup. On penalties.

... or not.

[SwearyInn]

Spinfight, you are utterly deluded, but no doubt some will believe your utter wank.

Which it really, really is.

The net effect of leaving will be that the poorest of our country will bear the brunt. There is no doubt about this. But if that is worth "sovereignty", then so be it.

[Mistigri]

Immigration will fall as soon as the UK can introduce a skills-based entry system.

So when do you expect this to happen?

[dogchewedtoy1]

Chalala - imagine the tabloid headlines!!!

[HugoBear]

Let's pretend Brexit wins.

The issue we have in some parts of the country is that they are so short of workers that a points system will have to award top marks for "has a pulse & can turn up for work on time"

In this immigrant-free Brexit heaven we are being promised, reality will come crashing down and those who voted for it are going to be very, very angry that they have been let down. (Over half the Leave campaign don't even care about immigration - they are just using it as a tool to get their own way).

Expect Daily Express headlines screaming
IMMIGRATION: THE ULTIMATE BETRAYAL when Brexit Britain gets mugged by reality.

[Mistigri]

But when are we going to get this "immigrant free heaven"? That's what Im asking about - how quickly people are expecting noticeable changes.

I can't see anything changing quickly, and I'm wondering what expectations are because it seems to me that the leave camp have created very high expectations around immigration, wage increases, housing availability
etc that have no chance of being realised in the short term.