"So Spinflight, to return to the topic, what do you expect to happen in the 2 years following a leave vote? In the 5 years?"
Sorry Mistigirl, I haven't been ignoring you.
Your question was worth a good ponder though. I'll happily give you my opinion, with the usual caveats.
One answer is it depends upon the weight of vote. I can see a narrow win for Brexit having different consequences to a heavy one.
There are a lot ( most ) of our past leaders and politicians who wouldn't take kindly to being turned into yesterday's men overnight. Do you think Blair would stop agitating in a narrow win?
As I've said elsewhere I very much hope it is clean and clear cut as the direction of travel is one partly determined by ourselves.
A narrow win would see renewed efforts to re-convince us, a thumping one and a clear signal a scrabble to deny ever having supported the EU by our executive.
Given that the thorny issue of immigration is a big one, especially after the lax handling over many years and many administrations, I'm certain that this will heavily impact upon policy.
It has a number of repercussions, most of which, especially economically, could only be adequately resolved, planned and forecasted by the civil service.
That this hasn't happened months ago is a disgrace which Cameron should pay for with his career.
Due to the thorny issue I can't see us accepting either a Norwegian or Swiss model. These might work well enough for them ( they are both very rich countries per capita) but we are a lot bigger and free movement of people will not I think be on the agenda.
We would see reforms to our system of immigration quickly, and tightened border checks. Merely exiting the EU would halve immigration but I think the government will go further. Quickly too, a new tory administration would be wise to make it the first act of the upcoming parliamentary session. We'd notice this over the medium term but it would have immediate effects. I doubt many would see us as the prime destination for asylum for instance.
On the whole I expect us to remain outside the single market and instead force them to lower their tarifs. There is a massive trade imbalance here so negotiations should be easy. There could be some truculence but we are in a position of power and the EUs own industries have vested interests which they would not be impressed to see defied. Two years, until actual exit, would be a realistic timeframe for this.
Merely the spectre of the cheap and constant flows of immigrant labour being reduced would see employers favouring those domestic and skilled or young. You don't make money in business by being stupid, and it would only be good sense to retain those you value when the labour market as a whole is likely to become tighter. I think people would see this effect in their next pay rise.
Housing would remain congested in the medium term though I think it would ease a bit after a few years. I suspect that properties in London and the South East would stop their crazy rises, maybe countered by rises in some of the once important trading cities like Glasgow and Liverpool.
We'd see some regeneration outside the Southeast as it's preferential georgraphy with the EU lost significance. I actually think this would happen quite quickly, very noticeable within 5 years.
Overall I think of it more as a rebalancing than as radical change. Rates of growth retarded or accelerated as the treasury's dodgy dossier implies.