What do you expect to happen after a leave vote?

[Mistigri]

This isn't a partisan in-out question, it's about people's expectations of what noticeable changes they expect to see both immediate 2 year period after the referendum, and in the medium term (let's say 2-5 years).

It seems that people are getting excited in a way that suggests they expect a short term change for the better, which implies that they expect noticeable positive differences in their own lives fairly soon after the election. And others are worried because they expect significant negative changes.

So, what do you expect to change, and how quickly?

[unexpsoc]

I was only joking, but apparently Farage has now said that post brexit we should get rid of laws against discrimination because we are colour-blind so it shouldn't matter.

Holy.

Fuck.

[lljkk]

Not pretending I have a crystal ball, but this is what I expect... DaveC may limp into 2019/20. Boris won't make it into No.10 (ever).

Rest of EU will rally in belief of the positives of EU, and re-energised resolution to make the EU a success.

UK: Long slow descent to recession, fall of £ against other currencies, & moderate job losses across wide industries. Economy hitting bottom about 3-4 yrs after the vote, followed by long slow pick up, to get back to about where we are now.

Mini-flight of high tech/science ability people from UK to elsewhere.

At ~4 yrs after vote, Immigration from EU will have declined by about 1/3... sort of. That's presuming we don't count seasonal agricultural workers. Net immigration will pick up again, so that 10 yrs after-vote, net EU migrant intake about 3/4 of what it is now. Immigration from non-EU decline by about 10% at Vote+4yrs (economically driven), but on a constant upward trend thereafter. General decline in most UK manufacturing as we are undercut by manufacturers in other countries spotting a market opportunity with EU. Considerable disarray in domestic food production. Food prices will have a period of big falls until high tariffs are imposed to try to save domestic agricultural production. More safety scares on imported food (from outside EU).

Goods will start appearing in UK that don't meet EU or US safety standards; lots of threads on MN trying to educate everyone to look for CE marks to make sure electrical and other products are safe to buy.

For yrs, almost nothing else will happen in national govt except negotiating the exit terms & new trade deals, so loads of issues will be put on hold/not dealt with. This may be good if it means NHS/schools/other industries can just stabilise rather than keeping dealing with waves of "reforms" and "reorganisation".

[unexpsoc]

Day 1
Dancing in the street as the Vote Leave campaign storm the houses of parliament and burn to death the euro-lickspittles George Osborne and David Cameron. The first new hospital with public money is started – remember, there will be a new one every two weeks with the money we save.
Day 2
Anyone who’s name is Piotr or Pierre is kicked off the housing waiting list. As immigrants rush for the borders their jobs are hoovered up by those plucky Brits who weren’t getting a chance before.
Day 3
Bananas go back on sale in their original format, slightly more bent and in bunches of five. Unfortunate photo opportunity where Boris Johnson is photographed eating one and people wonder just how far removed in evolutionary terms we are from chimpanzees.
Day 4
Human Rights bollocks is repealed. Alongside it we finally get rid of all that guff about equal rights, maternity pay, paternity leave, disabled access. Unable to control themselves, Rupert Murdoch and Mike Ashley are filmed engaging in an orgy of fisting prostrate Remain MPs.
Day 5
Largest ever fishing haul in history landed by the British Fleet. Stopped at the Scottish Border heading South by the newly formed ScotsNats revolutionary guard. Minor scuffle turns into a major event as tons of fish are battered.
Day 6
With a promise of VAT at 30% but corporation tax at 5% every major company in the world relocates to Milton Keynes. Although without any of their head office employees who are embarrassingly turned back at the airport for being “a bit foreign like”.
Day 7
UKIP leadership melt down as they realise that the European Parliament are now refusing to pay their wages any more. Nigel Farage says goodbye to German wife at the airport with a cheery “fuck off, kraut”.

[BreakingDad77]

If the Tories propose dismantling a load of workers' rights legislation, Labour will surely propose retaining it

Not necessarily, remember they felt the need to support austerity. Post brexit tories will be at the negotiating table around the time of elections, they will probably say stuff like don't let labour in to undo our work "labour wanted to remain/didn't listen to the people, need to take back control etc" and corbyn is not really right.

Maybe labour do somehow turn it around they will be faced with the need to massively spend on creaking social services, and NHS, (assuming Tories/UKIP haven't start privatizing it( while corporate and individual tax receipts have gone down.

Labour then stuck falling back to type of being painted the unresponsible one running up the national debt, conservatives get back in after next election and it continues for ever.

[Limer]

I'm a bit bemused by the "we'd better stay in the EU otherwise the Tories will shaft us" stance. The Tories are in power now, but with a very slim majority, and as soon as this referendum is over (regardless of the result), there'll be an awful lot of in-fighting and possibly another general election.

If the Tories propose dismantling a load of workers' rights legislation, Labour will surely propose retaining it - and maybe improving on it. The UK voters will then democratically decide. I'm looking forward to our own political parties having to do this, rather than the whole sorry lot of them just shrugging their shoulders and saying, "we can't change anything, the EU made these rules".

[GhostofFrankGrimes]

I live in an area that has very little immigration yet the traditional low paid jobs - cleaning, care work etc are surprize, surprize still low paid. Housing is expensive. I don't know how these people get by. We do have plenty of food banks though.

[Spinflight]

" That an ... um ... bold prediction!"

I think I can justify it.

A part of an employee's potential value to the employer is the cost to replace him or her. After a Brexit vote that implied cost increases, and therefore justifies higher wages.

Now I'm not saying that many employers might wait till the last minute, but the wise one's would seek to convince their employees of their value beforehand.

[Spinflight]

" if you are suggesting that.."

No, I'm specifically suggesting that the tory government would seek to limit migration from outside the EU before our actual exit from the EU, which you correctly highlighted would be 2 years.

[Mistigri]

I think people would see this effect in their next pay rise.

Wow. So you're expecting widespread pay rises for low paid workers as early as April 2017? That an ... um ... bold prediction!

[Mistigri]

Sorry, that first para above is a quote from spinflight

[Mistigri]

*We would see reforms to our system of immigration quickly, and tightened border checks. Merely exiting the EU would halve immigration but I think the government will go further. Quickly too, a new tory administration would be wise to make it the first act of the upcoming parliamentary session.

You haven't made yourself very clear here, but if you are suggesting that EU immigration could be halted in the next parliamentary session that's clearly wrong, since the UK will be in the EU until July 2018 at the earliest.

It is hard to see a government very occupied with negotiations and rewriting large amounts of domestic law wanting to make major changes to non-EU immigration law at the same time, particularly if large employers and party donors are concerned about skill shortages.

[Spinflight]

"So Spinflight, to return to the topic, what do you expect to happen in the 2 years following a leave vote? In the 5 years?"

Sorry Mistigirl, I haven't been ignoring you.

Your question was worth a good ponder though. I'll happily give you my opinion, with the usual caveats.

One answer is it depends upon the weight of vote. I can see a narrow win for Brexit having different consequences to a heavy one.

There are a lot ( most ) of our past leaders and politicians who wouldn't take kindly to being turned into yesterday's men overnight. Do you think Blair would stop agitating in a narrow win?

As I've said elsewhere I very much hope it is clean and clear cut as the direction of travel is one partly determined by ourselves.

A narrow win would see renewed efforts to re-convince us, a thumping one and a clear signal a scrabble to deny ever having supported the EU by our executive.

Given that the thorny issue of immigration is a big one, especially after the lax handling over many years and many administrations, I'm certain that this will heavily impact upon policy.

It has a number of repercussions, most of which, especially economically, could only be adequately resolved, planned and forecasted by the civil service.

That this hasn't happened months ago is a disgrace which Cameron should pay for with his career.

Due to the thorny issue I can't see us accepting either a Norwegian or Swiss model. These might work well enough for them ( they are both very rich countries per capita) but we are a lot bigger and free movement of people will not I think be on the agenda.

We would see reforms to our system of immigration quickly, and tightened border checks. Merely exiting the EU would halve immigration but I think the government will go further. Quickly too, a new tory administration would be wise to make it the first act of the upcoming parliamentary session. We'd notice this over the medium term but it would have immediate effects. I doubt many would see us as the prime destination for asylum for instance.

On the whole I expect us to remain outside the single market and instead force them to lower their tarifs. There is a massive trade imbalance here so negotiations should be easy. There could be some truculence but we are in a position of power and the EUs own industries have vested interests which they would not be impressed to see defied. Two years, until actual exit, would be a realistic timeframe for this.

Merely the spectre of the cheap and constant flows of immigrant labour being reduced would see employers favouring those domestic and skilled or young. You don't make money in business by being stupid, and it would only be good sense to retain those you value when the labour market as a whole is likely to become tighter. I think people would see this effect in their next pay rise.

Housing would remain congested in the medium term though I think it would ease a bit after a few years. I suspect that properties in London and the South East would stop their crazy rises, maybe countered by rises in some of the once important trading cities like Glasgow and Liverpool.

We'd see some regeneration outside the Southeast as it's preferential georgraphy with the EU lost significance. I actually think this would happen quite quickly, very noticeable within 5 years.

Overall I think of it more as a rebalancing than as radical change. Rates of growth retarded or accelerated as the treasury's dodgy dossier implies.

[GhostofFrankGrimes]

I can't see anything changing quickly, and I'm wondering what expectations are because it seems to me that the leave camp have created very high expectations around immigration, wage increases, housing availability etc that have no chance of being realised in the short term.

Nothing will change in relation to the above - team Brexit are offering pie in the sky. There is no plan, no small print. Its empty rhetoric - "take back control" is no different to Trumps "make America great again" tagline. It panders to people who want cheap plaudits and no detail.

[Mistigri]

But when are we going to get this "immigrant free heaven"? That's what Im asking about - how quickly people are expecting noticeable changes.

I can't see anything changing quickly, and I'm wondering what expectations are because it seems to me that the leave camp have created very high expectations around immigration, wage increases, housing availability
etc that have no chance of being realised in the short term.

[HugoBear]

Let's pretend Brexit wins.

The issue we have in some parts of the country is that they are so short of workers that a points system will have to award top marks for "has a pulse & can turn up for work on time"

In this immigrant-free Brexit heaven we are being promised, reality will come crashing down and those who voted for it are going to be very, very angry that they have been let down. (Over half the Leave campaign don't even care about immigration - they are just using it as a tool to get their own way).

Expect Daily Express headlines screaming
IMMIGRATION: THE ULTIMATE BETRAYAL when Brexit Britain gets mugged by reality.

[dogchewedtoy1]

Chalala - imagine the tabloid headlines!!!

[Mistigri]

Immigration will fall as soon as the UK can introduce a skills-based entry system.

So when do you expect this to happen?

[SwearyInn]

Spinfight, you are utterly deluded, but no doubt some will believe your utter wank.

Which it really, really is.

The net effect of leaving will be that the poorest of our country will bear the brunt. There is no doubt about this. But if that is worth "sovereignty", then so be it.

[Chalalala]

Buoyed by a new sense of national confidence, England beat Germany in the final of the euro cup. On penalties.

... or not.

[Justchanged]

The pound falling will have a large impact on everyone. A fall in the pound means rising import prices (that large trade deficit with Europe is because we import far far more than we export), so the price of most goods will rise. This means rising inflation which may mean that the BoE needs to consider raising interest rates. The combined result of rising prices and higher interest rates is a cut in real wages for everyone.

There will be several years of uncertainty while we negotiate a trade deal. During this period expect a collapse in inward investment, as well as major multinationals consider whether to move their EU headquarters to somewhere more stable. The result - a fall in tax receipts easily enough to outweigh an reduction in payments to the EU.

[GhostofFrankGrimes]

NHS services will improve as soon as the UK can control the numbers from the EU making demands on it, and invest money previously handed to the EU back in the NHS.

You assume the Tories will invest in the NHS?

Wages will rise for low-paid workers when they're no longer in competition with millions from poorer EU countries

because globalisation and capitalism the systems that dictate pay will magically disappear over night?

I'm sorry but some of this Brexit stuff is absolutely bonkers.

[Limer]

In the 2 years following a leave vote, the Eurozone will be mired in deeper economic crisis and the far right will increase their power. Unemployment rates will continue to climb. There'll be unrest in most of the EU associated with all this, and as a result of the ongoing migrant crisis, which shows no sign of stopping. Within 5 years, Denmark, Sweden, France and the Netherlands will all demand referendums and will all vote to leave.

Immigration will fall as soon as the UK can introduce a skills-based entry system.

NHS services will improve as soon as the UK can control the numbers from the EU making demands on it, and invest money previously handed to the EU back in the NHS.

Wages will rise for low-paid workers when they're no longer in competition with millions from poorer EU countries.

[Mistigri]

So Spinflight, to return to the topic, what do you expect to happen in the 2 years following a leave vote? In the 5 years?

When do you expect immigration to fall? How long will it take NHS services to improve? What's the timescale for wage rises for low-paid workers?

[antimatter]

I expect recruitment freeze and serious cost cuttings in many companies. This will slow down economy. Whilst politicians scratch their heads companies will be deciding whether stay in London or move to Europe to be closer to their market.
Would they move to Luxembourg, Amsterdam or Frankfurt?

My company is letting go off all possible contractors, at my boyfriend's place there are rounds of redundancies for permanent staff.
Hard for me to say what's happening at other places but one of my old employers laid off 15% their employees worldwide.

There's a lot of instability in many European countries. Right wing parties are getting stronger and stronger.

I enjoyed this article even though it's few weeks old
www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2016/05/11/the-cross-ideological-debate-over-brexit/

[Spinflight]

Thank you BurnTheBlackSuit, I'm here all week!

"I'm curious as to how soon leave voters expect to see positive results, because the leave campaign has promised to do an awful lot with that £350 million. What will happen if, in a year or two's time, the NHS is still struggling due to underfunding, and immigration hasn't fallen?"

Fair questions, to answer which I have to refer to one Nigel Farage ( boo hiss!).

The Leave campaign is not presenting a manifesto. Come the 24th the despicable subreptile tories will still be in power. Sorry chaps but this isn't a general election and you all screwed the pooch last year so will have to live with the consequences of a tory government.

That being said maybe we can hope that the leavers are slightly less reptilian, shifty and may take account of the public mood. I'm assuming that asshat Cameron is toast here.

There will be considerable pressure on the government to reduce immigration, and shorn of their EU related excuses I honestly think they would have to act.

Can you imagine Boris waffling about how his referendum speeches were merely an ambition?...

.....

Yes, well, so can I actually...

Hmm.. Is there much point here trying to pretend that all politicians aren't lying toads? I think it's likely they would act, not certain though....

The NHS would certainly get more money, but really not much changes. The first trade deal signed would be big news, fisheries having a boom similar to a gold rush etc but fundamentally you still have a tory government with a slim majority.

Hell even if the treasury is spot on...

" But of course there was a significant shortfall in real GDP growth over the previous three years leaving the level of GDP around 2¼ per cent lower in 2014-15 than we had forecast in 2010."

That's from the Office for Budget Responsibility, who were set up because the treasury were so... shit at predicting anything. They'd predict whatever their current masters told them to.

That quote though represents a loss of predicted growth which dwarfs the treasuries brexit prediction over a 4 year period, not 15 years.

2 1/4% lower is a whole lot more than 6% less growth.. See the language? One measures absolute growth, the other relative.

I'm trying to point out that not a lot changes, though not sure how successful I'm being at it!