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Brexit

(Narrow focus) I am voting Remain because if we leave, I believe the UK will break up, and probably the EU as well.

48 replies

WestleyAndButtockUp · 02/05/2016 10:15

As I get more pessimistic about the world, I value more and more the institutions that have maintained stability in the world. Even though those same institutions (EU) have acted deplorably on many occasions. If we Leave, it could precipitate the break up of the EU.

On another thread, I saw some convincing arguments about why that might not be a bad idea - although I'm not yet convinced.

But my main conviction is about the United Kingdom. Departing the EU, I believe, will make it more likely for Scotland quite soon, and perhaps Northern Ireland later, to break up the United Kingdom.

OP posts:
SpringingIntoAction · 07/05/2016 00:05

The "readmission" of migrants coming from Turkey back there & visa liberalisation are to be fast tracked.

How easily the EU's 6billion Euro human trafficking deal with Turkey is explained away. Shocking.

Turkey doesn't really need to actually 'join' the EU. It has most of the benefits already:

Visa-free travel within Schengen

Ability to spend up to 3 months within the Schengen area

Turkish currency recognised by the EU

EU member countries have to pay Turks unemployment benefit (ECJ ruling)

EU paid for Ford Motor Company to relocate jobs from Southampton to Turkey

Turkey has tariff-free trade with the EU via a Customs agreement with the EU

Turkey got bunged 6billion Euros by the EU to halt illegal migration from Turkey to the EU

AnnaForbes · 07/05/2016 10:00

Springing, you forgot Turkish being recognised as an official EU language

Mistigri · 07/05/2016 15:42

Turkish hasn't been "recognised as an official EU language". The European Parliament has adopted a resolution advising that adding Turkish to the list of official languages be given consideration, but for this to happen, it would need the unanimous agreement of member states for this to happen.

Turkish is the native language of significant minority populations in at least three EU states.

SpringingIntoAction · 07/05/2016 17:12

but for this to happen, it would need the unanimous agreement of member states for this to happen.

Pretty much settled then. Has already been an ECJ ruling that Turks must be treated as EU citizens in some areas.

Mistigri · 07/05/2016 17:57

Turkish is NOT an official EU language - fact.

It may or may not become one, if all EU member states agree - I think this is unlikely personally but views will differ.

SpringingIntoAction · 07/05/2016 18:40

Don't forget - all EU citizens must be treated equally under EU Treaties.

So when Turkey joins it would be discriminating against Turks for the EU to refuse to officially recognise their language.

The ECJ would be insisting on it.

And then every EU document and every speech would have to be translated into the Turkish language.

I welcome that - it will gunge up the internal workings of the great behemoth of the EU even more.

Think of the cost of translators

Our UK contributions would be bound to increase.

Mistigri · 07/05/2016 19:01

If Turkey joins - IF - then Turkish will become an official EU language.

Accession will require the unanimous agreement of member states, and - as STIDW has repeatedly pointed out - Turkey is a long way from doing this. Adopting Turkish as an official language also requires unanimous agreement.

Until or unless this happens:

Turkey is not a member of the EU - fact
Turkish is not an official EU language - fact

All else is speculation and scare-mongering.

SpringingIntoAction · 07/05/2016 20:45

If Turkey joins - IF - then Turkish will become an official EU language.

That's what I said.

Accession will require the unanimous agreement of member states, and - as STIDW has repeatedly pointed out - Turkey is a long way from doing this.

Turkey is as far away from joining the EU as Erdogan decides. He holds the trump card on Turkey's EU accession - he has threatened to sned millions of migrants ti=o the EU if he does not get his way

Adopting Turkish as an official language also requires unanimous agreement.

Rubber-stamp, cannot discriminate against EU member country or its language - so if Turkey joins the EU recognises Turkish.

Until or unless this happens:

^Turkey is not a member of the EU - fact
Turkish is not an official EU language - fact^

We know that - we keep telling you that..

All else is speculation and scare-mongering

Scare-mongering? Is that how you see the EU extending its warm embrace to 75 million Turks? I thought the REMAIN side were pro-EU.

Mistigri · 07/05/2016 21:24

We know that - we keep telling you that

And yet, a couple of posts ago, you said it was "pretty much settled" that Turkish is to become an official EU language. It's not.

Nevertheless, it's good to agree on something. Turkey isn't in the EU and we can jointly reassure Anna that Turkish definitely isn't an official EU language :)

AnnaForbes · 09/05/2016 23:09

The European Parliament welcomes the initiative of … Anastasiades, to make Turkish an official language of the EU, and urges the parties to accelerate this process,” read a part of EP’s progress report on Turkey, which was adopted on April 14, with 375 yay votes to 133 nay. The reports I saw claiming Turkey is now an official language of the EU were premature. However, the process is well under way.

All else is speculation and scare-mongering. Erdogan seems determined www.rt.com/news/342394-erdogan-turkey-eu-visa/ I will wait and see. I hope Turkey doesnt join, I expect it will.

BornFreeButinEUchains · 11/05/2016 19:27

The EU needs to break up, its a disaster.

Each country needs to regain its own sovereignty again.

We must quell the rise of the far right, doesn't this worry anyone?

SpringingIntoAction · 11/05/2016 20:23

The EU needs to break up, its a disaster.

Each country needs to regain its own sovereignty again.

Hear, hear.

Great MN username Grin

Limer · 12/05/2016 20:49

We must quell the rise of the far right, doesn't this worry anyone?

It worries me. I see a summer of discontent ahead in the EU, with migrants flooding in from the south, and Germany trying to impose migrant quotas on the rest of the EU thanks to Angela Merkel's crazy ideas. What will happen when places like Hungary and the Czech Republic refuse to take their quotas? What about the next Euro crisis, about to hit Greece (and then probably Spain/Portugal/Italy to a certain extent)? The far right are already on the rise all across the EU, all of this happening is like a perfect storm for them. The sooner we can disengage from the disaster, the better.

SpringingIntoAction · 12/05/2016 22:49

We must quell the rise of the far right, doesn't this worry anyone?

Yes, it worries me. It's direct result of trying to erase nationalities in the pursuit of a European Superstate.

What will happen when places like Hungary and the Czech Republic refuse to take their quotas?

Hungary is holding a referendum. The question it is posing is something like 'Do you agree with your Government that accepting migrants that are forced on the country is against our way of life etc etc". In other words - very heavily weighted to the Govt's own anti-migrant views. Estonia is also refusing to take any migrants.

What about the next Euro crisis, about to hit Greece (and then probably Spain/Portugal/Italy to a certain extent)?

It's been postponed until after the EU referendum.

The far right are already on the rise all across the EU, all of this happening is like a perfect storm for them. The sooner we can disengage from the disaster, the better.
Agree. If we hasten the fall of the EU empire it might just cause the Far Right to lose popularity.

AnnaForbes · 13/05/2016 11:45

The rise of the far right was so depressingly predictable. I honestly don't believe Merkel was trying to atone for Germany's past when she invited unlimited numbers of people from a culture raised to despise Jews into the EU. I am surprised the rise of the far right is taking so long.

Agree. If we hasten the fall of the EU empire it might just cause the Far Right to lose popularity. I hope so.

WestleyAndButtockUp · 13/05/2016 20:54

And no-one's bothered about the breakup of the U.K.? Do you disagree that would happen in the event of Brexit, or do you think it's a price worth paying for England to be on its own, outside any Union?

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SpringingIntoAction · 13/05/2016 21:44

And no-one's bothered about the breakup of the U.K.? Do you disagree that would happen in the event of Brexit, or do you think it's a price worth paying for England to be on its own, outside any Union?

The union is not going to break up.

Sturgeon wants you to think the Scots want to stay in the EU - you may find the actuality is quite different.

Scotland has done very well from the EU over the years - but in the event of Brexit I cannot see the Scots voting to rejoin the EU.

The reason is that Scotland would be a relatively rich country compared to the very poor countries that are in discussion to join the EU- Albania, Macedonia, Bosnia etc. A newly independent Scotland would be in no rush to rejoin the EU and pay large amounts of money in CAP subsidies to the poor subsistence farmers and to build spanking new motorways in those countries. It would also have to join the Euro. Nobody in their right mind would volunteer to join the Euro at present.

The EU is a great thing to say you would join - but not such a great thing when you look at the consequences of doing so.

Limer · 13/05/2016 21:47

I don't think the Scots would vote for breakup. They didn't before. Post-Brexit they'd be facing being a net contributor to the EU, along with all that that entails.

England wouldn't be on its own, don't forget Wales and N Ireland.

WestleyAndButtockUp · 17/05/2016 10:04

I do think they would vote for breakup. And I worry, a lot, about how that would mean continuous Tory rule in the rest of Britain.

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SpringingIntoAction · 17/05/2016 16:35

I do think they would vote for breakup. And I worry, a lot, about how that would mean continuous Tory rule in the rest of Britain

Not when it's explained to them that if they rejoin the EU they will
a) net contributors subsidising all the poor countries
b) have to join the Euro

Scotland loves railing against the big bad Westminster Govt. It's not going to surrender any new found freedom straight back to the EU where its voice would be tiny.

Winterbiscuit · 18/05/2016 14:43

I don't think there's a danger of "continuous Tory rule". All parts of this country are used to seeing the government change regularly at our general elections every few years. We get fed up with governments that go too far and vote them out.

WestleyAndButtockUp · 19/05/2016 06:49

The Brexit Leave campaign is based primarily on the emotive (admirable) principle of self-determination. Not primarily on economic arguments.

Why shouldnt the future Scottish Leave campaign be based primarily on the same emotive principle? If it is, then the EU (demonstrably) provides security for smaller nations to be self-determining.

You can't say fine margins of economics will sway one leave campaign but not the other.

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CaseInPoint · 19/05/2016 07:11

What are you concerns exactly about he break up of the UK OP? Personally I don't think that will happen, did you not see the Tory gains in the Scottish elections a few weeks ago? They're now the second biggest party in Scotland, support for SNP is fading fast.

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