Just wondering... how do you think the financial turmoil will affect private school applications this year?

[PrincessPeaHead]

It was difficult enough to see who the hell could afford boarding fees of £8800 per term in a boom economy... now? Do you think there will be a big move from boarding to private day options (cheaper) or in fact also a big fall in private day applications as people try for grammars/use the good local comp ?

Just musing really.

DS's started in reception this term - They are already down from 3 classes to 2 and the car park seems to be quite empty. Apparently quite a few families have taken children out.

We have just taken our dc out of private school - triggered by dh's redundancy this year, although he found a new job very quickly we reassessed our situation and decided that since ds was 'starting juniors' age and dd was 'starting infants' age it was the best time to make the leap.. haven't heard of anyone else removing children yet, and to be honest if ours have problems at their new school we will move them back (but we will be fully aware of what we are paying for then).

CountessDrac - it really isn't that big a deal for kids to move schools - it happens all the time when people move house (ds is on his 3rd school and is fine)

I was a bit upset by a badly timed letter from the Bursar of the old school (night before my dc started at their new school) saying ' We are assuming that you would like to donate the deposit you paid to our fund to help parents who cannot afford our fees'... um... did we get offered any support when dh lost his job...nope.

still a big wait list for school my ds and dd are at, no change there.

Would be interesting to see the effects that this will have on state schools.

Apparently Surrey cc are anticipating a significant fall out into the State system but don't have extra capacity yet.

Millarkie, what bloody cheek! How they dare assume anything about anyone's financial circumstances.... and presumably they are relying on people to feel too embarassed to say "er, no actually, you assume incorrectly..."

With my Romany ancestry I can foretell that as the pool of parents able to afford private school shrinks, demand for houses very close to 'outstanding' state schools will rise sharply thus raising prices and rescusitating the housing market - in pockets - thus reviving the fortunes of EAs and developers, and in their wake, the banks, accountants..and the dry cleaners to which they take their suits.

In no time!

Was just talking about this topic this morning with my sister. She is hoping you are right and that lots of places are going to be freed up in private schools as she may be returning to the UK next year and will need to get her three children into schools.

But who knows. Do people value their children's education more than other items in their budget? You can obviously make massive savings by cost-cutting school fees, but is that the wisest long-term move? Better perhaps to cut cars/holidays/new furnishings/clothes.

I am a bit worried dd1's private nursery is going to close, numbers this term are WAY down on last year - get the impression a lot of people are sending their dcs to the local state nursery instead.
I have decided that given all the uncertainty I will probably put my dcs into the local state school until seven at least, squirrel away what I would have spent on school fees, and reconsider when I see how well it's going. A year ago I wasn't even contemplating state and my dh and I don't work in the city, though, like everyone, we may feel the fall out in indirect ways. I don't want to start the dcs in private schools only to have to take them out I would find that heartbreaking.

I think that the over subscribed schools - particularly in our area those that are selective and competitive will continue to thrive - the casualties may well come in those schools that are not - the local state schools are very good and so I think that unless people want a place at a particular school and are able to get it then they may well turn to the state system at least in the early years other than take a 2nd choice.

www.educational-grants.org gives a list of bursaries offered by independent trusts. It's worth a look as it might help you make up a budget shortfall.

but Anna8888 - if you end up in the situation where dh and I were in April - going from a large income to about 30% of that, with my job under threat as well it takes more than a little cutting back on cars and curtains to get through. We could have survived for a year or so but the stress would not have made a great atmosphere in the house for the children to live in.
We are lucky, our 'catchment' state school is 'outstanding' and our kids are proving adaptable. (I don't like the implication that I am failing my children by moving them to the state sector when that is where the vast majority of children are educated because 'I care more for my soft furnishings).

I think those looking at the expensive boarding end of the market will not be touched. They are rich beyond worrying about this.
Those that will be affected are those for whom it was a push anyway.
A lot of leavers at our school last year went to grammar schools rather than day schools. This is a new trend.
If our income goes down this year we will tighten our belts in other areas but I know some families are already very squeezed.

Millarkie - I quite understand. I was just musing about how people manage marginal cost-cutting.

In our area the state option is shite so it won't affect the private schools here, which are oversubscribed anyway. However more people may choose to move out of the area to where there is a decent state school.

Heard on radio last week that there has been a steady move over past towards Boarding Schools, including state funded ones.

Should qualify that, the secondary state option is shite. the primary state schools are very good, so there may be people switching to state primary.

Millarkie - if you can't do it comfortably and the schools are good in your area why put yourself under undue pressure? Don't sweat it.
And I say this is a huge fan of my children's indie school and a fanatical opponent of the NC/sats culture.
Financial pressure is a killer to any happy family.

I work in an ind school and my dcs attend ind school as well (Ds id a boarder) My school has not lost anyone to being unable to afford the fees, but enquiries are definitely down; 3 years ago we got 200 enquiries a year, last year it was 96!
The other ind schools in the area are having similar issues, even though all our local secondary schools are completely shite and consistently on the lower half of the "Value Added" tables.

Well, I guess that there are some folks who have family money for schooling who won't be affected, some who will stay in their jobs but be squeezed by the credit crunch and may stay in private school or not, and others in our situation where it's feast or famine - both in work = school fees not a problem, high earner out of work = everything a problem so school fees not possible. We are in 'feast' at the moment but never know when next famine will hit.

Not read the whole thread, but my old school (private all girls boarding) has just gone into financial turmooil. Hoped to bail themselves out by going co-ed, and borrowed a huge amount of money froma bank, who then clearly panicked (this was a few months ago) and demanded the money back.

I am sure a lot of private school parents are thinking about the value for money aspects, even if there is no immediate change in finances. You might find the local good state schools even more oversubscribed than they were.

It's a different mindset when bonuses are pretty much assured, employment secure and house equity on the up, but in the current climate it is eyewatering to shell out 10- 13k a year plus which is what the local major prep schools charge and the major senior schools are twice that (even without boarding). It's a long term commitment over many years.

There are always those who won't feel a dent in their finances, and there's probably more of those at the most expensive prep schools (15k plus a year), but I imagine there will certainly be effects felt at the medium range ones.

For everyone who tells you it's not worth it when there are good local state primaries (albeit not secondary) there are equally others who have spent a fortune to send their 3 kids private who will say it is worth every penny.

To those who can afford it (and are inclined to) the biggest argument /draw for private will always be there - the smaller classes, wrap around care /after school clubs; the facilities; broader curriculum; no sats and ultimately freedom to shop around for a school of your choice to suit your child.

What about pupils from overseas? If there is a British downturn more than elsewhere, will this have an impact on the strength of the pound that affects the affordability of British education for families overseas? I think if I was a private school head I'd be working at my overseas recruitment right now....