‘According to the BBC this morning, private school admissions for year 7 were already down by 4.6% this September. This number will likely increase next year after the VAT change has come into effect. BBC News - Private schools say early signs of pupils leaving - BBC News’
It doesn’t take much googling to see that uk births dropped from 813,000 to 779,000 in the relevant year, a fall of 4.2%. Fewer births means fewer children!
People jump on the private school lobby group’s news without doing much simple analysis.
The overall fall is 1.7%, which is again (mostly) accounted for by demographics.
Now that doesn’t mean it won’t change going forward, as VAT hasn’t even come in yet, but private schooling has been remarkably price inelastic to date, with demand increasing despite huge real increases of private fees over decades.
In the schools I know, they will remain oversubscribed. They will just reach deeper down into the tail to fill the places, and accept more pupils with more profound SEN.