How far do the pupil numbers need to fall before a school is closed?

[Teaandflapjack]

This is in relation to a one form entry primary school, no nursery. So there should be 210 pupils in total. 30 in each of the 7 classes. Currently about 177. One year only has 21. There will be 24 in my son's class in September if no one new joins. Just wondering. Numbers would have been even lower but we absorbed a fair few from another fairly local primary school that closed

Our local school just closed with 9 pupils!

The local authority has to go out to consultation with a proposal. They can't just close it.

Read about what is happening in Hackney.

https://news.hackney.gov.uk/four-primary-schools-in-hackney-will-close-next-september-due-to-the-ongoing-decrease-in-the-number-of-school-aged-children/

The 4 schools in 2023 had reception intakes of
13/30
12/30
10/30
16/45

so quite a bit lower than your school.

Yes my eldest is going into year 6 and their year has always been full with a waiting list. Secondaries are packed.

The younger ones… it’s just bizarre. When I found out my child would be in a class of about 23 I couldn’t believe it. It’s worrying.

Its the type of consultation where even if everyone objects it can still go ahead

Single form entry schools are the ones being worst from a financial point of view with falling roll. And especially in the first few years. Can possibly absorb financial impact of class sizes of 27 and above. If have under 15 per class, can mix year groups. Class sizes 16 to 26 are the nightmare. Can’t easily merge classes, can’t afford to pay staff

Friend told me that in their local authority 7000 pupils went up into Y7 but only 3000 came up into YR. That shows the impact of falling birth rate. Many Secondary Schools currently have a bulge year.

Nightmare for budgeting

When DS started school the catchment for our local 3 for entry primary was tiny, the last 3 years they haven't filled the places averaging just over 80 children. There's another school 200m away having the same problem, but neither wants to be the one to drop to two classes as then they'll have a load of empty classrooms (some of which were only recently built to accommodate the bulge) to maintain.

My youngest is starting YR in September in a class of 18. Low birth rates mean pretty much all the local primaries have unfilled places. I'm not worried about the school closing, but am worried about mixed year classes further up the school as some children shift to prep school (common practice as we are in a grammar area)

Just found out today at a leaving party for a year 1 boy that another child is leaving so my DS's year 2 will be 22 or 23 in September...

Inevitably? Why?
Also surely it's not just the birth rate. Immigration + number of families with babies actually staying in the area long enough to have school aged children.
So many move out for bigger houses etc.
Birth rates are falling in general

Item 9 here has some info about Camden school place planning from a recent council committee meeting (and it looks like the video of the meeting is still online too): https://www.civico.net/camden/18300-Schools-Forum.

Yep we’re in Lambeth and schools with 25 children in classes are being asked to either go to one form entry, or if they are already 1 form, to “merge”, ie close. It’s the number of children in the whole borough that is the problem, not the number of children in each school.

DS is in an outstanding two form entry school, 25+ children in each class, and they have been told to go down to 1 form from September. The other 25 children who would have been in the second form will be distributed across other schools in the borough instead.

Surely they will just become composite classes?