@strawberrybubblegum
Whilst the folk who work at the Adam Smith are lovely and Madesn is a true gent, their work is biased
A quick scan of it shows that lots of assumptions are made ( that families who choose not to send once VAT is paid on fees will withdraw the labour that covers the cost of fees is one which is unlikely) They also make the erroneous remarks about catchment areas given here.
It is rather clear, that they haven't read the UCL studies on who sends their children to private school.
The other thing in this study is that it's discussion of elasticities is inaccurate and whilst it waffles on about income being a high determinant of demand for private schooling ( in fact as the UCL studies show, it's the most important determinant) it doesn't really justify it's conclusions about people removing their children. It also doesn't discuss the PED/YED for private schooling enough outside of the few examples given.
It makes an assumption about a 5% fall in demand for places automatically leading to a 5, 150 teachers (5%) of the total, which is COMPLETELY ridiculous and simplistic as the 5% fall will be spread across all schools, and that as we know, the number of teachers in schools (especially private ones) is not directly proportionate to the number of students.
The assumptions that it then makes for falling tax paid from private school staff and payroll taxes is also there totally unrealistic and erroneous. It also waffles on later that people now in their 20s and 30s may choose not to work as hard as they will have already decided not to privately educate their kids and counts this as a loss to the treasury.
I could go further in taking apart their analysis but I can't be bothered, it is SHOCKINGLY bad and makes huge assumptions and incorrect assumptions in order to reach its conclusions.
Basically its a fluff piece written for ideological reasons rather than using good economics