Are pupil numbers rising or falling in your school?

[DrMadelineMaxwell]

I work in a primary. We, like nearly every primary in the catchment area, are going to be losing a teacher to redundancy if there is no natural movement for other reasons, purely due to the fact that we have nearly half the number of nursery pupils coming in in Sept compared to the number of year sixes that are leaving.

My kids schools are static, as they are always full. Other schools in the area are getting smaller - they have spaces in the youngest years which is new.

Where I work schools are rapidly dropping classes, merging classes and closing.

Falling across the borough. Several primaries have closed or merged.

Ten years ago we were half full and the school people ended up at when they had nowhere else to go. Now we're bursting at the seams. Full with waiting lists in most year groups.
As for our SEND unit...over 120 applications for 8 places.

Falling here. Numbers have been falling for a few years, but from September our reception classes will only be half full. I suspect from September 2025 we will lose an entire class, and some very good staff. 😔

Pretty static next year but generally on a downward trend. Primaries close to us have gone from 1FE to 4 classes in the space of 2 years. We’re in Cambridgeshire, and the county closed a primary last year due to falling rolls. This year’s year 6 is the peak, then numbers decline quite dramatically.

Falling in about 80-90% of the schools I teach in, which is a pretty large sample size across two counties. The rest are all stagnant which given the current low birth rates is pretty impressive. Not one of the schools has increased numbers and only a handful have waiting lists.

Staying the same (all 3 classes full at reception). But the area has lots of schools and several have falling numbers. I live in one of the London boroughs which is projected not to have falling pupil numbers, but even within the borough there is movement from my area towards more affordable areas in the north.

One perfectly good school has sort of collapsed from 90 to less than 30 children accepted for reception, purely because it is near an outstanding school and several faith schools which are desirable to parents for various reasons.

Local Primary is falling - intake is usually 29/30, this year looks like it will be 17.

It's obvious that there are regional differences.
Our region has huge numbers and waiting lists! Too many children for the school places.

London borough. Primary numbers have been falling since their peak about 13 years ago. Schools have closed, more planed to and an excess of reception places.

A few schools remain oversubscribed because they're popular with parents but very different from when they were setting up bulge classes each year.

I work in more than one school. Both infants are making redundancies, the junior has lower numbers but not enough for redundancy and the seondaries both have lower numbers for year 7 but only by a few.

The top end, so years 8,9,10 and are 11 are full with bulge classes.

It's really interesting to see the regional differences. It wasn't that long ago most of the schools in my area were oversubscribed with long waiting lists. But in the last 5 - 6 years there's been a very noticable decline in numbers, and now I believe there's only 2 local schools with a full reception class, and they're both one form entry.

Is that how it works? My DDs class always had 31. Ukrainian pupils joined and I know they can push the PAN over (and school gets extra cash). End of year 1 a child left and we thought they wouldn’t be replaced and then we got two! So now a class of 32. Not aware there were any SEN at point of admission.
Going off point here… but always wondered how it works that KS1 can go over when it’s supposed to be capped at 30. Doesn’t bother me, they cope fine and I guess they could do with the cash.

Reception is always full but there is movement in every year group as people relocate. Places get filled quickly lower down the school (and for future sibling priority) but secondaries in area not as good as elsewhere so people do leave the area in year 5 (same in all local primary schools).

very different from when they were setting up bulge classes each year

Yes, it astonishes me how quickly these things change.

In my area (big city) all the secondary schools are full in every year group. I’m not sure about the numbers coming through or lower primary age. The position can change quite quickly but the local authority and school leaders would know for planning purposes.

I'm a school governor. Our numbers haven't really changed for years, but that's probably because we are always oversubscribed and therefore at maximum capacity.

The local primaries are falling. We have shifted from a three form intake with waiting lists to a two form intake in six years.

The secondary is expanding but only by extending its catchment area.

I'm not a teacher but we are out of catchment for the school DD goes to (its actually the closest physically - our catchment school is further away) and we were told at the time that due to a falling birth rate locally they had plenty of places so to apply regardless. The other local infant school had to reduce year R classes a year or 2 ago - used to have 3 classes in Yr R, now have 2. I've heard a rumour that one of our local junior schools will be doing the same. Am in a commuter town though where house prices are a bit higher than the surrounding area. I don't know if that makes a difference perhaps not many people of young school age children can afford to live here (I couldn't either if we hadn't bought years ago, and I'm at the shabby end of town lol).

The infant school my kids went to is smaller, going from 3 form entry to 2 form entry and years 1&2 are now mixed classes. When my now year 9 daughter attended further a fourth class's due to a high birth rate that year! According to the secondary school this area has a very spiky birth rate. The school can take 6 forms per year, a few years ago year 7 was only 4 forms.

Primary, falling. Gone from over subscribed for single form entry to an intake of 12 last year. It's a catholic school, brexit has had a huge impact. The ethos has changed from catholic to 'we welcome all faiths or no faiths' for next year.

Secondary completely oversubscribed, 1 in 4 got a place last year due to huge sibling links. Normal comp.

I'm also surprised by how quickly it has changed. I wonder what the situation will be like in another year or 2. I suspect a few of our local schools will end up combining year groups, or may even close completely.

Falling. We've gone from 3 classes to 2 in the past year. It started when literally every single one of our schools teachers all left at the start of the summer holidays last year and then parents started removing their children from the school and taking them elsewhere. The school's head does not work at the school and I've never seen her. Same for the SENDCO (3rd new one in under a year). We've just this week lost one of the 2 remaining TA's and the school secretary and now I'm seriously considering looking at other schools for my ds. This will be so hard for him as he's in Year 5 and was so settled at his school and his best friend since pre-school is there. He has autism and ADHD and the school is utterly failing him, still waiting on an EHCP after 3 years and its almost time to start applying for secondary schools.

Steady but at the limit so hard to know how many are actually applying