Will VAT on private school fees lead to a partial collapse of the sector?

[mids2019]

Will VAT on school fees coupled with cost of living drive a lot of parents from the private sector or will the majority absorb the cost? Are the numbers that potentially end up in the public sector going to offset any gains to the treasury through VAT?

Labour are working at about 4-5% transfer rate to the public sector but is this an underestimate?

It is sad.

No one wanted to hear it, the legacy of this policy will be poor.

Because you’re pro a policy that will do that

I will be voting for labour but not on the strength of this. Im not particular pro, I’m just not anti & I think a lot of the arguments are hyperbole.

I hope you are right, we have a couple more years to reception, if schools around don’t improve, we will look into private, it may prove cheaper than moving… ironically.

Some will close eventually down. I still don't know where you think these kids will go?

There are also several "natural breaks" in secondary education - when Labour get in parents can pull in y7 or 8, if they're in yr 9 and you'd keep them in until the end of GCSE and pull. If they've just joined in yr 12 you'd stay for 1 year. It is whether schools can handle the chop and change while parent's figure it out over the next few years that will make or break them. There will be a few year groups needing to be found a space for within the State sector.

And I’m not anti state schools. I had an excellent state education & my dc are having an excellent one currently.

Well students moving from private to state is not, it’s expected

So if you’re voting for the party bringing it in that’s what you’ll get.

One of the main bits of the reporting has focused on the slow burn of the issue as people come off low interest rates and onto worse deals. 24/25 is the second academic year since that slow burn started.

Exactly, I’m not quite sure how that is difficult to comprehend.

But there is also a cumulative factor isn't there? Similar to what people say about VAT - people are less likely to remove their children mid-phase, they will wait for a natural break or not apply in the first place.

True

The reporting on the decrease also seems to assume that the school age population decline will only affect the state sector, which is an interesting assumption. I wonder if there are any studies and reports on how the private sector is planning for significant decline in the overall applicant base?

I don’t understand how falling pupil numbers can only impact state schools.

So if you’re voting for the party bringing it in that’s what you’ll get.

I can live with that but I won’t be basing my voting decisions on dc in private schools. I don’t think most people will tbh.

@Slav80 for many in London the higher house price is more affordable but obviously depends on numbers if dcs, fees etc

I don't think anyone voting for Labour is doing so because of this policy. I've yet to meet one who even mentions it when they talk politics.

It will disrupt a lot of lives, lose some women and teachers their jobs, change some areas irreparably and cost the state sector a lot of money and increase the Elite's hold on wealth, but it won't be remembered as a Labour party "win".

But often those with deeper pockets have an interest in maintaining the status quo - or once they're through the system they're not motivated to drive change. And the current government's position has been a total wet blanket or trying to get any kind of positive change. Fingers crossed people will get fresh energy and motivation if there is the potential for change under Labour.

Hopefully we get some new energy back!

What is this campaigning for?

Lottery systems etc?

I may be living in a different London then as I earn nearly six figures and I can’t afford £1m+ houses in catchment, or run down ones for £600k+😵‍💫.

If it is I’d say fat chance

Labour dominated borough and the most committed school by house price I ever did see

@EasternStandard no one is stopping you from taking up the cause, you are clearly passionate about the impact on state schools.

Yet most of the UK don't live in London so 🤷

I’m asking what you’re talking about

If you mean lottery systems then yeh no chance

I’m the opposite of keen but you can if you want

Just because someone can afford the VAT doesn’t mean they will pay for it. This depends on alternative state schools, life choices, and other reasons. I have a good state secondary but prefer a private school nearby - just not to the extent of another 20% extra VAT for 2 kids. I also find it unacceptable on a personal level that I would have to pay this VAT out of my after tax income.

So, I will forego private education altogether when my children finish Y6. There are many ways to spend the savings - house deposit, pension (to reduce my overall tax), reduced working hours, or a combination of these.

Interestingly....
https://spearswms.com/wealth/why-uks-strictest-headteacher-katharine-birbalsingh-supports-private-schools/

I bet the parents with DC in private schools will though . Certainly as a lifelong Labour voter I will not be voting Labour this time.

@EasternStandard but I don’t have a problem with moving my dc to a state school as they are in one & Im lucky that it’s a great one. I thought you had an issue with moving yours to state?

I bet the parents with DC in private schools will though

Who knows, some wont I’m sure. I just don’t think the contingent will sway the vote.

How are you creating this stuff?

My dc are not moving, and we use state

That doesn’t mean I can’t see the very poor impact of a gimmicky policy. Increasing state burden impacts tax payers, I am one of those

And I feel for dd who will have to move, especially those who will struggle more due to SEN

I’m confused

My dc are not moving, and we use state

And I feel for dd who will have to move

Is dd not dear daughter?

With luck, we will end up back in the EU and that will be the end of this policy (as well as a lot of other silliness)