Cutting costs by 20% is a pretty big ask. And since the schools aren't profit-making, it is cutting costs.
Unless they pre-emptively cut bursaries right down and made a raft of staff redundancies now - before the law even comes in - the costs won't drop in time. Some schools with a healthy war chest may be able to cover it for a short time.
But they have to decide whether they should.
The more they reduce their provision, the less extra education we get as a proportion of the 10s of thousands of pounds we are giving the government.
On fees of £18k, if the school reduce the provision from £18k of education to £15k of education to absorb the £3k VAT, parents go from:
- giving the government £27K in order to double the amount spent on DD's education
- to giving the government £23K in order to increase the education DD gets by 50%
Ie going from 8k state provision to £16k private provision or £13k private provision respectively. Assuming 2k of the fees cover wraparound and extracurricular activities I'd otherwise pay for elsewhere.
Note - it's not the government doubling or increasing my DD's education. This is tens of thousand of pounds I pay the government directly in extra taxes and subsidising DD's education entitlement - just so that I'm allowed to pay for extra education for her.
It pretty soon becomes not worthwhile. Why on earth would I give the government 10s of thousands of pounds, to only be allowed to actually improve my DD's education fractionally.