How to research secondary schools performance?

[SureWould]

Didn't grow up in UK so forgive my ignorance.

Ds1 is middle set. Dd2 is top set. Both state primary. Can afford private but rather grammar/good comp if possible. We will have to move house at some point, when there's more schools visibility.

Looking at DOE tables at GCSE English and Maths results for non-selective comps. Quite a few suffer a precipitous drop at A Level (I look at %AAB in 3 facilitating subjects). Is that because in those schools the best performers always leave to a grammar /private for 6th form? Or worst get kicked out to do Btechs?

I know schools are much, much more than league tables but looking for statistical markers for how well it does academically.

Well you're looking at a really really poor indicator so that won't help! Why on earth did you choose that?

You should be looking at GCSEs for a start. There are stats on the Gov website, but obviously with TAGs they haven't been published for the last two years - but I believe this summers results will be available early 2023.

Perhaps look at this site: www.schoolguide.co.uk

By ‘precipitous drop’, do you mean from GCSE to A Level? If so, I am not sure that is the best way of looking at it. A Levels are basically harder. Same applies in the jump from A Levels to Undergraduate Degree. You might be better looking at exam performance over time as a measure.

This is interesting on the ‘jump’: www.oxford-royale.com/articles/hardest-a-level-subjects/

I agree with titchy . You need to look at GCSEs not A levels. You need to look at Attainment 8 scores, but more importantly Progress 8 and filter by previous achievement.
Progress 8 shows progress from y6 SATs to GCSEs. You can see how well a school does with previous low, middle and high attainers.

Attainment 8 will also help. The data should be split into scores for low, middle and high attainers. Lots of schools with good results get them because their intake is bright - not because they're particularly good at teaching - attainment 8 is supposed to show that.

Though whether you can and should judge a school based on data alone is not recommended.

Thanks. I think its still 2019. Just to get a guage of academic standing.

What are TAGS? I can't see GCSE subject results - English Maths Physics Chemistry etc.

Sorry progress 8 - thansk teen! Also bear in mind you're looking at the results of kids who will have started at least six year before your kid does. Schools change a lot in six years!

TAGs are teacher assessed grades during covid. Those results won't be published.

A level grades are greatly influenced by the entry criteria for the 6th form.

A school/college that required 5 at grade 5 will let in a much broader spectrum than one that requires an top 8 GCSEs average score of 7, with 8s in A level subjects. You can't judge much just looking at final A level grades in 'facilitating' subjects.

You want to look at the value-add score

the best schools can get kids with predicted grades c to a b, for example. The worst get the predicted grade c kids to a d.

the value-add % is one of the scores my DH (secondary teacher) gets nervous/excited about when gcse results come out

there is a name for this score, will look it up

Just see it’s already mentioned: progress 8

Yes to progress 8.
It predicts what GCSE's the kids should get when they arrive, and the sees if the school beats the prediction (positive progress8), matches it, or the kids do worse than predicted (negative progress 8).
You should also be able to filter- so pick high performers for your top set child, and check the school doesn't forget those that will do well whatever.

Thanks...

I can see Progress 8 scores overall and by some subject groups. It's a number from -ve to +1.0X - what does it actually mean?! I can't see low, middle or prior attainer distinctions

I'm comparing schools in a few different areas to move. Cognisant it's not just about data alone but we need a data-backed way to understand academic standing.

A score of zero means the kids have made exactly expected progress. A negative means they have gained lower grades than they should have, a positive means higher than would have been expected given their ability.

Progress 8 of 0 means the kids achieved as predicted.
Progress 8 of +1 means, on average, the kids got one GCSE grade higher than predicted.
Equally, Progress 8 of -1 means on average each GCSE was one grade lower than predicted aged 11.

On the schools comparison website you can make your own list of schools to compare.

A +0.5 means that on average kids do half a grade better per subject than might be expected.
So instead of say 5555 5555, they get 6666 5555
A -0.5 would mean they get 5555 4444

I wouldn't think a 0.3 school to be significantly better than a 0.2 school, but a school consistently negative might be one to avoid.

There are various rules around what subjects count, but that's broadly it.

It's not predicted progress. It's progress made from ks2 to ks4 by the national cohort. So, students who achieved this ks2 average went on to achieve this at ks4 in this subject. I think it uses national data from 3 years of ks2 and ks4 results, weighted towards the most recent year. It will be different this year as its the first one to use ks2 scaled scores instead of levels and all gcse's graded 9-1.

Yes so aged 11 they predict achievement then see how the kids do.
How have I said anything different to you??

No, they don't predict age 11.
They get to y11, see how the whole cohort did nationally, work out what was average progress and measure from that. Subtly different.

OP I think you might be overthinking this. There are so many variables that determine how children achieve academically, and the school is only one part of that. I would look around your local schools, maybe read their ofsteds and then just see how you feel your kids would fit in. And don't sneer at Btecs. They can be great. My DS has a CAT score of 134, did well at local comp for GCSEs and is doing a BTEC for 6th form because the college and the course were right for him. I think it is early days for your kids as they are still in primary, but if you are going into this thinking that top grades at A level are the only indicator of educational success then you may have a bumpy ride ahead.

but if you are going into this thinking that top grades at A level are the only indicator of educational success then you may have a bumpy ride ahead.

And in a very narrow range of subjects too...

Is there also somewhere you can see GCSEs results e.g. %A*-Bs (or equivalent these days) by school? Is this the Times school guide or good school guide or other?

These tips and others are so useful thank you. I can see a couple like this on my list with big consistently negative progress 8 score and would definitely want to avoid them.

Your closest would be Attainment 8.
Schools also usually publicise things like % at 9-7 on their websites but haven't recently due to Covid.

@Biscuitsneeded no problem with Btech just need to understand why the numbers show up a certain way. I have one more academic child and one less plus I need to balance that with where we live etc.