Predicting grades this year was really difficult in general (not just for UCAS). I've got years of experience to draw on, but there were so many unknowns, because the kids aren't graded on the standard of their work, but the standard of their work compared to their cohort. I knew my class had been impacted by covid, but was it worse or better for them than other schools? What was the impact of the advanced information? Did knowing the topics in advance mean that everyone would do better in the exam and therefore the grade boundaries would be higher and my class do worse than I thought?
As it was, on results day this year I was genuinely shocked to see how well my class had done. Obviously grades are higher than they would have been in 2019, but I don't think that accounts for all of it, and other schools must have had a really rough time this past couple of years (not that we had a great time, but my class was lucky to have consistent teaching from qualified teachers for a start). Anyway, I think we actually under-predicted UCAS this year in some instances when we thought we were being generous.
Every year it comes up for discussion how shit the UCAS predicted grades system is, and every year they talk about rearranging the year to create a post-results application system, and every year nothing happens about it and schools continue to get the blame for what is a stupid system.