The market is polarising. At the moment there are too many independent schools for all to be financially viable. This is especially true outside of the south east and in niche schools, which could include girls schools or those with boarding or those that have traditionally had lots of overseas students. It also applies more to Preps.
The trend over the last years has been for closures and mergers. This will continue. Some struggling schools (think those with small year groups, those who haven’t been able to invest in the fabric of the school in recent years, those with falling numbers) will close or merge to survive. This could be a Prep merging with another, joining a chain or becoming part of a senior school, or often just closing down.
Saving the teacher pension costs won’t make much difference to this at all, given the schools pulling out are committing to 20% employer contribution into DC pension. However, the fact it’s going into DC instead of DB pension makes a huge difference to what teachers will receive in retirement in terms of amount and in terms of certainty. Many of these struggling schools will close anyway, especially in areas of the court try where the population that can afford fees is smaller. There are always reports of smaller schools closing with little notice snd teachers and pupils having to scrabble for somewhere else.
Definitely worth scrutinising the financial position of any school. Don’t think withdrawal from TPS will suddenly make a struggling school have a vibrant future. Just as letting your facilities decline doesn’t attract people, having a pay and pension policy which doesn’t attract the best teachers, are things speeding up the decline. Often there are just too many schools. The ones that will survive will have to be offering good value in terms of their offer. Of course the teachers themselves are a vital part of that.
Even I. LOndon and the south-east the market is polarising. Stand-alone Preps are finding it hard to weather storms. Many have sought out educational trusts to join, to help boost investments snd give some security. But some of these are asset strippers. They keep the struggling school open for a couple of years, before closing it or merging it and sell off the valuable land.
Who looks strongest? It’s the larger schools with big numbers and academic success. Being co-Ed, day school and not reliant on international students helps too. Being in an affluent area with a history of sending kids to independent schools also helps. Those at the cheapest end of fees often struggle to provide what a good state school offers. These kind of schools were the quickest to withdraw from TPS. They increasingly are less attractive as employers.
I guess some parents like the idea of independent education, or perhaps shiny facilities (to be found in successful schools, but often not at those struggling) and don’t really consider what it is that allows the school to be successful and worth paying for.