Page 3 | Canadian study - unvaccinated more likely to have traffic accidents than vaccinated......

MistressoftheDarkSide · 2022-12-19T20:50:28+00:00

Have been pretty pre-occupied this year so not paid much attention to Covid other than checking if various hideous viruses over the last three months were Covid (none of the three were apparently). But, I have seen reports about a Canadian study that suggests unvaccinated people are more like to be involved in traffic accidents..... 🤨 I hold my hands up and say I haven't read the paper but I have seen some commentary about it in various places, and it seems a little far fetched perhaps? Am rubbish at linking on my phone but a quick Google should find reference to it for you. But anyway, just wondered what the opinion is on this piece of scientific research?

rockly · 20/12/2022 20:34

MistressoftheDarkSide · 20/12/2022 20:18

@rockly Yes your analysis was good and due to time constraints I didn't look for other reviews - he who must not be named came up as a suggestion on social media and it was just convenient - my bad 😞

It's the first time since my DP died in January that anything Covid related has really crossed my radar and my knee jerk response was basically "Are you fucking kidding me?"

This kind of alleged scientific research could indeed be leveraged in many ways including as you mention insurance premiums etc.

The whole pandemic was handled so badly I believe it has massively destabilised everything and opened the doors to mass manipulation on an unprecedented scale.

This sort of study is just ultimately damaging and unhelpful.

I am very sorry for your loss

My response to most of COVID reporting (and twitter) is also "are you fucking kidding me" and I have come to the conclusion that for the sake of my blood pressure time is possibly better spent elsewhere.....

I work in a science field and rest assured anyone remotely qualified thinks the paper is pile of trash! There is no way it would be used to inform policy or risk assessment, however it is very problematic in terms of inflaming an already very polarised subject as well as being a real waste of resources.

rockly · 20/12/2022 20:39

BlackAmericanoNoSugar · 20/12/2022 20:27

The Covid vaccine doesn't prevent transmission in as much as people who have Covid are equally as likely to pass it on whether they are vaccinated or not. However vaccinated people are less likely to catch Covid and you can't transmit it if you're not infected with it. www.bmj.com/content/376/bmj.o298

Aye -again something that has been terribly communicated by the media who seem to use transmission and onward transmsission interchangeably

HowVeryLikeSibella · 20/12/2022 22:02

How on earth can pedestrians be included, unless the implication is that unvaccinated people become worse at crossing roads because they are unvaccinated?

Whilst I agree there's a lot wrong with this paper, if the hypothesis is that vaccination hesitancy is a sign of poor risk analysis, then including pedestrians makes perfect sense. Have you seen the pedestrian casualty figures for 13-25 year old boys vs girls?

Original poster

MistressoftheDarkSide · 20/12/2022 22:25

@rockly

Thank you for your kind words x

And also for the reassurance that my feelings that this study is potentially polarising and scientifically dubious.

As for vaccine status and pedestrians I still think it's an incredibly long stretch. I am unvaccinated and as yet - touch wood - am not impaired in my ability to cross roads safely. I still look all ways, keep eyes on indicators and have survived two years in my busy urban environment.

Vaccination status is hardly comparable to the vagaries of the not yet fully formed teenage brain.....

OP posts:

Original poster

MistressoftheDarkSide · 20/12/2022 22:29

And while I'm ruminating and playing catch up, any idea on actual numbers of virus cases recently? And are we on any particularly interesting new variant?

I glanced at the "was lockdown a good thing" (sic) thread and noticed a post commenting about the oddness of nigh on two years of collective paranoia versus now when Covid barely raises an eyebrow and it does seem utterly bizarre.....

OP posts:

nellyelloe · 21/12/2022 06:30

I literally cannot believe I'm supposedly amongst intelligent people and yet they are stating this study might be 'useful'. I despair, I really do

110APiccadilly · 21/12/2022 06:54

I look forward to the upcoming campaign advocating banning ice creams in order to reduce deaths from drowning.

In the meantime, perhaps someone could look into the correlation between aggressively pushing a new vaccine and:
a) the crisis in adult social care, given a load of unvaccinated carers were sacked
b) dropping take up rates of childhood vaccines (this could have been caused by lockdown, to be fair)

Choccolatte · 21/12/2022 07:07

MistressoftheDarkSide · 20/12/2022 22:29

And while I'm ruminating and playing catch up, any idea on actual numbers of virus cases recently? And are we on any particularly interesting new variant?

I glanced at the "was lockdown a good thing" (sic) thread and noticed a post commenting about the oddness of nigh on two years of collective paranoia versus now when Covid barely raises an eyebrow and it does seem utterly bizarre.....

That's thanks to vaccinations and variants. It's 3 years ago and this is how pandemics work. They don't stay forever.

sparkles82 · 21/12/2022 07:47

For those still championing the ‘life saving vaccines’, this is worth a read. A transcript from a recent debate in Parliament on vaccine injuries and harm caused. Not surprising they have shelved the Astra Zeneca one. I’m sure the Pfizer one will follow after this.

hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2022-12-13/debates/EAB2E8A2-A721-47DD-A79C-4EFD10F10C2D/VaccinesPotentialHarms#main-content

spare123 · 21/12/2022 07:54

As a GP, I find it useful to know if a patient hasn't been vaccinated/refused it for their kids, as I then know that their understanding of the balance of risks and benefits and of medicine in general is poor, often their level of education and/or IQ is low, and I can take that into account when explaining things. I usually start at a much lower level of explanation for this group. It wouldn't surprise me at all if they took more risks in the rest of their lives.

BeethovenNinth · 21/12/2022 08:04

spare the best GP I ever had was the one that privately admitted his pregnant wife, like me, has declined the flu vaccine in pregnancy, optimised her vitamin D and was in excellent health.

Buzzinwithbez · 21/12/2022 08:22

spare123 · 21/12/2022 07:54

As a GP, I find it useful to know if a patient hasn't been vaccinated/refused it for their kids, as I then know that their understanding of the balance of risks and benefits and of medicine in general is poor, often their level of education and/or IQ is low, and I can take that into account when explaining things. I usually start at a much lower level of explanation for this group. It wouldn't surprise me at all if they took more risks in the rest of their lives.

Declined. One declines something that's a service that is offered. One refuses something that is being pushed onto them.

spare123 · 21/12/2022 08:23

Buzzinwithbez · 21/12/2022 08:22

Declined. One declines something that's a service that is offered. One refuses something that is being pushed onto them.

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The implication on their ability to weigh up risks and benefits is the same.

spare123 · 21/12/2022 08:24

BeethovenNinth · 21/12/2022 08:04

spare the best GP I ever had was the one that privately admitted his pregnant wife, like me, has declined the flu vaccine in pregnancy, optimised her vitamin D and was in excellent health.

I've seen pregnant women who have died of flu. Completely preventable. He may have been an affable GP, but he wasn't a good one.

Spaghetti201 · 21/12/2022 08:36

Well evolutionary speaking, it makes sense that some of the population don’t follow the rules. If everybody followed them and it was a bad decision, we would be all wiped out 🤷‍♀️

BeethovenNinth · 21/12/2022 08:38

spare I find it bizarre that most - not all - GPs still don’t talk about the benefit of nutrition and lifestyle. Decent vitamin D supplements for the elderly. Preventative medicine. Most are not up to date with literature.

he was an excellent GP because he acknowledged the existence of a risk based approach. He treats my mother and has been fabulous. Yes she has her flu vaccine.

spare123 · 21/12/2022 08:45

BeethovenNinth · 21/12/2022 08:38

spare I find it bizarre that most - not all - GPs still don’t talk about the benefit of nutrition and lifestyle. Decent vitamin D supplements for the elderly. Preventative medicine. Most are not up to date with literature.

he was an excellent GP because he acknowledged the existence of a risk based approach. He treats my mother and has been fabulous. Yes she has her flu vaccine.

Absolutely agree. A good diet, exercise and vitamin D are important. So is the flu vaccine for pregnant women. You are allowed to do both and his wife was taking an unnecessary risk with her life and that of her unborn child.

We don't talk about that at length in consultations because we don't have time, not because we don't think it's important.

Buzzinwithbez · 21/12/2022 08:50

spare123 · 21/12/2022 08:23

The implication on their ability to weigh up risks and benefits is the same.

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I'm fascinated! In your experience are these people more or less likely to need more appointments than average?

I try to avoid pre-judging people after learning one of the people that I had made an assumption about had a degree in medical law. I learnt a lot about myself through this, including to have a bit more curiosity about people.

Buzzinwithbez · 21/12/2022 08:53

spare123 · 21/12/2022 08:45

Absolutely agree. A good diet, exercise and vitamin D are important. So is the flu vaccine for pregnant women. You are allowed to do both and his wife was taking an unnecessary risk with her life and that of her unborn child.

We don't talk about that at length in consultations because we don't have time, not because we don't think it's important.

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Surely if it's clear a woman is going to decline a vaccine, it's of even more importance to speak about nutritional status. Otherwise you've just wasted her time and yours by pissing into the wind on the issue of vaccines.

neverendinglauaundry · 21/12/2022 08:58

rockly · 20/12/2022 12:20

So research needs to be useful, and I'm struggling to understand what the point of this analysis was.

We already know the relationship will not be causal, so what was the point of the work? To reduce RTA? To increase vaccination uptake? Or just to annoy people and get media attention?

Predicting who is most likely to be in an RTA is obviously important and useful for targeted intervention. But we already have robust predictors for this, which is how insurance rates etc are derived. A noisy confounded variable like vaccination status adds nothing to.

Understanding sociodemographic factors associated with vaccine hesitancy is also useful, which is why it seems ridiculous to focus on something like future likelihood of RTA, when you could conduct an exploratory analysis which would actually produce useful estimates. I.e., if a specific ethnic group is less likely to be vaccinated in pregancy, you could start doing outreach/PPI work to identify factors underlying this and if they could be addressed to increase uptake. This would have been a good use of this large dataset.

The authors conclude: "Physicians counseling patients who decline COVID vaccination could consider safety reminders to mitigate traffic risks". Bollocks. Firstly, population level estimates do not necessarily translate to the individual, and secondly all this is going to do is (understandably) irritate someone who hasn't been vaccinated.

Vaccination has become a very polarised issue, and all this paper does is serve to fan the flames without offering any tangible benefits to public health. Of course, my opinion only

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Completely agree with this. My main question is, how did they get a grant for this research? I'm presuming they just had a massive amount of data then played with it until they found something that could make a headline.

CrunchyCarrot · 21/12/2022 09:09

When I first saw the title of this paper I thought it must surely be a joke! Apparently not. Seems to me to be yet another stick to bash the unvaccinated with. I had hoped we had gotten past that.

I remain unvaccinated. I am a very risk-averse person. I have one neighbour who's also unvaxxed and is similar to me. We were both very careful during the course of the pandemic and it's only recently that we have both had Covid mildly (although I encountered the virus asymptomatically back in July 2020). In terms of this study's 'findings', neither of us are drivers so impossible to say whether I'd have the urge to run red lights and take chances on black ice. However I believe I would not. I also have a good friend online who is a (very cautious) driver and is also unvaxxed (decision taken for medical reasons).

We don't all make decisions (such as declining a vaccine) for the same reasons. I didn't make it because I think lizards are running the world and I will be microchipped. Nor because I am a risk taker generally. Nor because I have a low educational level and IQ. I agonised over it (plus the fact that I'm a needle-phobe added to the difficulty deciding). I took a course in Virology and spent many hours looking at research papers that cover various aspects of SARS-CoV-2 and related subjects. It's actually opened up a whole new world to me, so the pandemic did have some benefit!

And while I'm ruminating and playing catch up, any idea on actual numbers of virus cases recently? And are we on any particularly interesting new variant?

Yes, the latest variants now beginning to possibly overtake the BA variants are named BQ 1, BQ1.1, XBB and XBB.1 The latter variants are evading immunity more effectively but bind more weakly to the ACE2 receptor.

More on those variants from Whiteboard Doctors (based in USA so data is from there, but nonetheless interesting):

I fully believe that a lot more will become understood about how the SARS-CoV-2 virus affects the body and what an insidious virus it is. I think there will be more understanding of how T cells function in longer-term protection against severe effects. I don't see how papers on driver safety help in any shape or form.

Abhannmor · 21/12/2022 09:25

Pish . I refused the offer of a drink etc.

Figgypudding123 · 21/12/2022 14:50

Correlation does not equal causation, as they say.

Maybe there's something there about people's attitude to risk??

MechanicaHound · 21/12/2022 14:51

nellyelloe · 21/12/2022 06:30

I literally cannot believe I'm supposedly amongst intelligent people and yet they are stating this study might be 'useful'. I despair, I really do

Mumsnet is not representative of the real world.

MechanicaHound · 21/12/2022 14:54

Seems to me to be yet another stick to bash the unvaccinated with. I had hoped we had gotten past that.

Things have died down in the UK (though SAGE still exists unreformed and is ready to spring into action at any time).

But Canada, it would appear, continues its march towards full-blown fascist state.