Covid pandemic end “is in sight”

[asblindasabat]

was just reading this interesting article - surely the pandemic pretty much ended months ago given there are no longer any restrictions and haven’t been any in months?

When they say the end is in sight, what does that mean? And when is it likely to happen? This year or next?

amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/14/end-of-covid-pandemic-in-sight-says-world-health-organization

The WHO are a global organisation, and when they talk about the end of the pandemic they mean globally. Individual countries may well have ended it sooner.

The end is not in sight, despite what politicians say.

The WHO are not politicians, and are somewhat better placed to decide when the world moves from pandemic to endemic than mumsnet.

DD just had Covid for the second time. She was asymptomatic after being noticeably ill first time with vomiting.

DH also had it for the second time. He still managed a week of "the dressing gown of doom" but was not anything like as ill as first time (pre vaccinations).

My other DD and I managed to dodge it whereas last time, before we were vaccinated, it just ran through the whole household.

I guess we are all likely to catch it periodically but hopefully with vaccinations and antibodies it becomes less of an issue each time.

I was responding to the post which quoted Biden, who is a politician.

Apologies for insufficient clarity

I hope all the good work done on treatments and prophylactic drugs are still going well and money is spent on production and distribution.

So much was done in such a short time, so much success as well, let it not be wasted. We need all the tools in the armoury, and kept up to date.

It’s not the politicians who decide when the pandemic formally moves from pandemic to endemic, it is the scientists and experts who make that decision based on the global situation.

Anyone have any estimations as to when you think this may be declared over? Surely it won’t go on any longer than next year. It’s nearly been 3 years already.

It's never going to be 'over' but we've developed some immunity to it. We will live with like any other virus.

There are over 2.5 billion people (according to World In Data) who are unvaccinated.

I think it could be a significant time until the pandemic can be declared over

The virus is still causing high numbers of hospital admissions, even in countries with good vaccination rates, and long covid is also consuming more and more medical resources. Plus there continue to be new variants.

I can see why people are tired of talking about it, but that doesn't mean it has become insignificant

Tell that to our local hospital who currently have two large full wards of it. That’s 68 beds unavailable for anything else. Covid is still very much an issue for the NHS.

There are over 2.5 billion people (according to World In Data) who are unvaccinated.

More relevant would be the number of people without antibodies (from past infection or vaccine). Many people in poorer countries have built up strong immunity from successfully fighting off covid.

I guess it depends on whether Covid mutates to a version that escapes vaccine and has far more serious symptoms.

But for sure, its a relatively mild illness for most, even though i feel like shite, day 2 positive, like a heavy cold - survivable.

there are still many populations with low vaccine uptake and until everyone is protected there is always a risk of a new variant

If every single person worldwide was vaccinated there would still be new variants. Coronavirus' mutate constantly and a vaccine isn't going to stop that.

The pandemic being over doesn't mean covid is over. The Spanish flu pandemic was declared over a century ago, but people still contract the virus which caused it.

The difference is that people don't die from it in anything like the same horrific numbers, people don't get seriously ill in the same numbers, and there are effective treatments and vaccines. The fact that it's circulating in the general population without huge spikes in hospital admissions and/or deaths illustrates that we're coping, in the UK at least.

Of course there may be new variants that prove problematic but for now, yes, it looks good.

The fact that it's circulating in the general population without huge spikes in hospital admissions

Lol. You haven’t seen our hospital’s patient numbers. I think it’s more a case of out of sight out of mind for most people now rather than covid not having a worrying affect. Unless they have a procedure cancelled because we’ve converted more surgical wards to medical ones as overflow.

I think the U.K. never shifted from an emergency understanding.

Yes hospitalisations and deaths are down but the longer term spread of the disease will mean longer term deaths are increased and higher disease prevalence.

There is so many more infections today than there were in lockdown or in 20-21. Now with less testing and surveillance.

Everyone has either disregarded or not understanding that covid isn’t a disease that only effects the respiratory system or that is recovered from in a few days. and that a v. High proportion of people have long term effects. There is an increased risk in cardiovascular disease events after covid as one example.

Added to that it is still being allowed to spread and is having a detrimental effect on the workforce and education.

Simple measures are being avoided in favour of a “phew glad that’s over” mentality. It isn’t over just because the government have told you it’s ok to go back to work and earn them money.

There is so many more infections today than there were in lockdown or in 20-21

What evidence do you have for that statement?

The things people call simple measures never are, use of that term is generally a sign of someone who won't experience the downsides, and most of them failed when we tried them. Though I would like better air quality and ventilation. That was a problem well before covid.

People are going to catch covid for ever and ever. It's not going away in the same way that cold and flu and other bugs aren't going away.

Zero covid was a pipe dream.

But yes, the "end" of the pandemic has been and gone in terms of restrictions and quite right too.

The pandemic will NOT be over until they figure out how to both prevent and treat long covid. It's been two and a half years for me now - still unable to work, still reliant on care, still measuring my walking distance in paces. There are hundreds of thousands of people like me in this country alone, and the number continues to rise.

How do they know how many people have it if no one is testing? I've been feeling a bit rough all week but not tested and gone to work etc as normal.

That's awful. Sorry and hope you recover soon

I think you'll find people need to earn money for themselves and their families. Particularly at the moment. I take it you've heard there's a cosy of living crisis?

'Everyone' has not 'disregarded' or 'doesn't understand' want covid can be. But employers are telling people to come into work with covid, DC have to go into school with it. At the start of the pandemic, and as soon as it became clear that zero covid was never going to happen, the hope was that one day we'd be able to live alongside it as we do so many other viruses. That's where we are now.

Even if your claim about the number of infections were true, isn't it a comfort that even with tens of thousands infections a day, so many fewer people are getting ill enough to need hospital treatment? Comparing now to 2020 is ridiculous anyway. Now we have a vaccine which targets the current dominant strain, we have effective antivirals for CEV people, we have treatments.

Some people want to stay in 2020 forever, it seems.

This must be awful for you and I hope you recover fully.

Sadly however post viral issues such as yours have always been a thing. I had a nasty bout of flu in my teens and was ill for two years afterwards. My consultant has suggested that this is when the seeds for my autoimmune condition were sown. It's absolutely shit. But a new virus will mean more cases like yours, and mine with flu.

The end of the pandemic cannot be measured in the way you suggest.

Hospital admissions begin to rise every autumn though, don't they? Unfortunately with covid in the mix they'll rise further, but the admission numbers have never approached the astronomical figures they reached prior to vaccines and antivirals. Thank goodness.

Covid is here to stay which means that yes, there will be some admissions with it which will increase the pressure on the NHS. The answer isn't to stay in pandemic mode - it's to invest in the NHS. Which sadly under this government probably won't happen.

Incidentally my treatment has been severely delayed and interrupted due to covid restrictions, then backlog, so I've seen it first hand.

*Then sensible measures:

roll out Evusheld to the most immune suppressed 500,000 as those in that category make up over 25% of ICU admissions, and that proportion could be cut by 92% (based on figures from countries where it is in use - UK is the only country of those who have announced a decision to refuse to buy it, despite MHRA approval).
rapid investment into social care - whatever the number of hospital beds, they will fill up if you cannot discharge people safely in a timely fashion
masks in all clinical settings (so you aren't exposing your highly vulnerable newly diagnosed cancer patients to areas (eg for scans) where there is zero infection control
jabs for all - perhaps not in first roll-out, so the most vulnerable get priority, but at some later point
consider masks in some further settings - I was thinking of on public transport*

^^ this.
I’ve spent the last week in an isolation ward, costing the nhs thousands.
I’m having a weekend at home before going back into hospital next week for more chemo.

then I’m making the decision to self isolate from my children in the post chemo period until my immune system starts to come up again. I’m vulnerable to any germs at all, but in the words of my consultant ‘getting Covid right now would critically mess up your treatment plan’. It’s heartbreaking to stay away from them but rates in school are way too high to risk it.

this just is what it is for those of us in the most immune suppressed 500,000. With any issue, there will be a pocket of the population more affected that others. I have never advocated that those less affected should lockdown for those of us that are. But just because you’re not personally affected please don’t buy into the Covid is over mentality. Especially when there are simple risk reduction measures that don’t affect anyones ability to live their life that really do help.