So happy tests are to be axed

[Wizzbangfizz]

So according to reports they are going to stop handing out LFT and will be stopping mass testing - this is excellent news for both the tax payer and the environment and surely marks a clear path this whole thing becoming endemic

134,000 people on average die in care homes annually from a mixture of ailments, but I bet if they had been tested, a very large proportion would have been as a result of flu.

@Northsoutheastwest76

Yes you always get excess deaths in Winter compared to the same summer period. That is where the 50,000 comes from. But that 50,000 is not flu deaths.

Do you know that for a fact without any testing having been done? I know I keep banging on about it, but everyone keeps forgetting or assuming flu is nothing compared to covid. Flu is an absolute killer of the elderly.

1.Main pointsAn estimated 63,000 excess winter deaths occurred in England and Wales in winter 2020 to 2021, 6.1 times higher than winter 2019 to 2020; the growth was mostly driven by the large number of coronavirus (COVID-19) deaths in the non-winter months of 2020 (April to July) and the winter months of 2021 (December to March)."The excess winter mortality index (EWMI) in England was significantly higher than all winters since the series began in 1991 to 1992.In Wales the EWMI was significantly higher than every winter since 1991 to 1992 except 2017 to 2018.COVID-19 was the leading cause of excess winter mortality in 2020 to 2021, accounting for 84.0% (England) and 82.9% (Wales) of all excess winter deaths.

@2389Champ so we should not believe that everyone who died of covid actually died of covid as some died with covid. But with flu any excess death is caused by flu no matter what the death certificate says?

2020 had 91,000 excess deaths in the UK. Deaths from covid 69,000.

@2389Champ

134,000 people on average die in care homes annually from a mixture of ailments, but I bet if they had been tested, a very large proportion would have been as a result of flu.

Nope. That simply is not true. Flu going through a care home is always worrying.

@puppetear
ok, no offence taken, sorry if it seemed I overreacted.
It's just tiring to hear all the bs - in general.

Our full family has been wearing n95 masks. Our greatest personal risk is a kid in his gcse year. The only thing that stops me from over-worrying is that we have done everything that we can: he has had 3 vaccines, (we all have), always wears a proper mask (and he is genuinely diligent) about it and he tries to keep his distance.
And the benefits did show when end of nov 4 out of 5 in his friendship group caught covid and he didn't.

But as more times goes on, more I feel that it will get riskier as we go along.

personal note: whoever keeps saying there have always been other viruses, like noro, flu... it was always a struggle to keep "safe" if you are immune compromised. And every winter there had to be a few weeks when I was limited to our bedroom as kid brought home either one, husband was the nurse and then we switched when he got ill and he was limited to the bedroom to keep me safe. Not fun, and every year. It would be so great if the proper mask wearing could become the norm if someone is ill and others who are more prone to be hospitalized with these could could feel a bit safer and wouldn't have to make contingency plans. And I'm lucky to have a husband who is partner in this and takes on everything for that 1-2 weeks. Many are not that lucky.

There may not be a test for flu but Doctors certifying the death certificate are better placed to decide whether it was flu, pneumonia or the myriad of other reasons people die as they can access the medical history.
I am not denying flu is dangerous for thr vulnerable but it is no way as transmissible as COVID and doesn't affect people year round.
@RoyalFamilyFan the double standards is bizarre at times. I have a relative who has spent the last year or so claiming on Social Media that COVID deaths are actually pneumonia caused by mask wearing, they were obese or old or had pre existing conditions or would die soon anyway.
Yet every death within 28 days of a vaccine was caused by vaccine and it just COVID vaccines but any vaccine.

@Spudlet

This would be a PITA - I test for work as I work in close contact with people and it reassures my clients but as I’m self-employed and not a key worker, I will have to buy them in if they do bring this in. Which is yet another cost for a very new, very small business. I just hope they aren’t too expensive.

This is my concern too. My self-employed work requires me to work face to face with children. I ask that they do LFT on the day I see them ( make it one of the days they currently LFT for school anyway rather than do an extra test) and I also do LFTs. I've introduced this having twice been in contact with youngsters who have then gone on to LFT positive the following day. This then has had a knock on effect for me as some parents are then not happy about me seeing their child until I've done a PCR and it has been negative. Every time I can't work, I don't get paid. All the above is besides the times when I can't work with a child because they or a family member actually have Covid.

@Northsoutheastwest76 there is a test for flu, a swab like a PCR. We run flu tests now alongside Covid ones routinely at work (A&E)

The debate here about flu, we have years where it's not so bad and other years when it rips through everywhere and then there is a excess deaths ++ I think the last really bad flu year we had was 2016. All depends on the severity of the strain. This year and last year there's hardly been any flu around.

[quote RoyalFamilyFan]@2389Champ so we should not believe that everyone who died of covid actually died of covid as some died with covid. But with flu any excess death is caused by flu no matter what the death certificate says?[/quote]
Not at all. It’s just that we routinely test people for Covid, so we know for a hard fact if it was a factor in their deaths (cause or secondary) but because we don’t test for flu, we cannot be sure.

A large proportion of elderly peoples’ deaths are recorded as a respiratory infection which is a bit of an ‘umbrella’ for all sorts of illnesses - including flu or pneumonia. A death certificate is merely to confirm that a death is not suspicious, so unless there is a concern by a medic or a PM is performed, it is often a best guess. So we cannot assume cause of death was definitely not flu anymore than we can assume it definitely was - without testing.

Thank you @rambleonplease. I did not know this.

Death certs can be very misleading with stats. So if you ever have cancer, ever. Even 30 years ago, and it had nothing whatsoever to do with the cause of death, it will still go on your death certificate as a secondary cause of death. Can very much screw all the statistics around about cancer and mortality.

Covid will likely be on any death certificate if patient has tested positive within 28 days even if it was something totally unrelated that caused the death. Death certificates really are not black and white at all.

@2389Champ Most elderly people die of pneumonia. Because as your breathing gets more laboured, fluid collects and pneumonia develop. I have seen this happen with a number of relatives who had cancer had a heart attack, etc. But pneumonia is the final killer.

@rambleonplease

Death certs can be very misleading with stats. So if you ever have cancer, ever. Even 30 years ago, and it had nothing whatsoever to do with the cause of death, it will still go on your death certificate as a secondary cause of death. Can very much screw all the statistics around about cancer and mortality.

Covid will likely be on any death certificate if patient has tested positive within 28 days even if it was something totally unrelated that caused the death. Death certificates really are not black and white at all.

I really doubt this.

Yeah that is a load of shite. My FIL actually had cancer when he died. It was not on his death certificate as it was not relevant to his death.

My DF died of pneumonia aged 94 - it stated cancer as cause of death - yes he had bowel cancer but it wasn’t what killed him
DB and I sat there together when registering his death and debated whether we should challenge it but TBH we wanted to get on with funeral arrangements and how much did it really matter (other than statistically) we were both distressed and it wouldn’t bring him back

@JaceLancs a Dr might put that if they thought the cancer had led to the pneumonia?
Most elderly people die of pneumonia. It is what happens when the body is dying and shutting down from other causes.

My dad had cancer 10 years before he died, it wasn't in his death certificate, it just said Renal failure which was what killed him.

Watch when the next variant comes along which it will do, we seem to get a new one about every 3 months. We will be back to test, test, test.

Interesting perspective, @TheSunIsStillShining, and it gave me pause to wonder if I am thinking about things rightly.

I think you’d agree, though, that the current policy isn’t making your situation much safer: it’s a nod in a direction I can see you approve of, but in and of itself, it’s at best a small contribution.

That in mind, I still feel its not appropriate to continue with the current measures. Perhaps that leads to questioning whether to deepen them (e.g., mandating FFP2 masks for all, not surgical, etc.). But — and here to be blunt — that is it turn measures towards a new purpose. I don’t see a mandate for that even referencing the “new normal” that was once in the discourse.

My opinion is the government finally has it right, which is to allow/encourage covid to burn itself out, leading to a high rate of population immunity, and much lower future rates. That does create a hard place for you in the short term.

But the alternative is to draw out a lower rate. I don’t really see that helps — the rate is not low enough to make safe. Unless you push for very low rates indeed — perhaps not zero, but close. But then we end up asking people to put up with a lot of enduring measures. That seems a very difficult position to sustain.

Sense your frustration. Can see we come at the problem from very different angles. Interested hit there is any pragmatic overlap in practice.

Today Radio said 1 million tests sent to employers, to encourage daily testing.

So more testing... more people off work isolating. That's what will be achieved.

Gove has said they are not axing tests (not that you can always believe what he says)

He also got stuck in a BBC lift, which did make me laugh.

I think realistically they could axe testing now, but the public isn’t ready for it, there is still a small but sizeable enough portion of the population who would be panicking if they could not test and be deeply concerned by our lack of insight.

So they won’t scrap them yet, but only to appease people.

@puppetear

Interesting perspective, *@TheSunIsStillShining*, and it gave me pause to wonder if I am thinking about things rightly.

I think you’d agree, though, that the current policy isn’t making your situation much safer: it’s a nod in a direction I can see you approve of, but in and of itself, it’s at best a small contribution.

That in mind, I still feel its not appropriate to continue with the current measures. Perhaps that leads to questioning whether to deepen them (e.g., mandating FFP2 masks for all, not surgical, etc.). But — and here to be blunt — that is it turn measures towards a new purpose. I don’t see a mandate for that even referencing the “new normal” that was once in the discourse.

My opinion is the government finally has it right, which is to allow/encourage covid to burn itself out, leading to a high rate of population immunity, and much lower future rates. That does create a hard place for you in the short term.

But the alternative is to draw out a lower rate. I don’t really see that helps — the rate is not low enough to make safe. Unless you push for very low rates indeed — perhaps not zero, but close. But then we end up asking people to put up with a lot of enduring measures. That seems a very difficult position to sustain.

Sense your frustration. Can see we come at the problem from very different angles. Interested hit there is any pragmatic overlap in practice.

I think this is absolutely spot on - and very wise.

It seems to now be clear that further restrictions just draw out the length of the pandemic. There are more and more studies emerging that, for the majority (and I do appreciate there will always be exceptions) a combination of vaccine plus prior infection gives a huge boost in protection against subsequent potential variants so ideally, as many of us that can catch the mild Omicron, the better.

Reports are emerging this morning about the possible ending of all restrictions and testing from March. The story about this potential move - Operation Rampdown - had already circulated in November but denied by ministers at the time. The hardest part is going to be weaning us off our addiction to all things Covid, particularly as we’ve all been conditioned to change our behaviour accordingly and there’s many people still petrified about ‘normal’ life.

At the risk of being absolutely destroyed on here, I’ve actually changed my view of Boris in the last few months. He’s steered a steady course, kept his nerve and seems determined to get us through this without reintroducing harsh short term restrictions which will have long term consequences.