Do you think we're over-reporting cases?

[girlmom21]

I don't know if this sounds stupid, but if we're reporting all LFT results, including those from day 6 onwards now, plus all PCR's, do you think we're reporting more cases than there actually are?

The government/NHS systems have failed to track contacts so I don't really have much faith we're linking positive results to individuals - ie a positive LFT followed by a positive PCR - as quickly as we're reporting cases

LFTs aren't included. If anything we will be under reporting.

The UKHSA state that cases are under reported, not over.

Lfts aren't included. I know several people who have positive lft over Xmas but there were no pcr tests available under day 6 of their isolation so once they got the 2 negative lfts they came out of isolation and didn't bother with the pcr. Some couldn't drive and postals take ages, nearest test site 1hr away, had a void test and didn't see the point in travelling for another are among the reasons why. So if anything we're under-reporting.

Probably underreporting if anything.

If someone has a positive test result, they DO have covid, so,we can’t be reporting more cases than there actually are.

I had assumed that the results included LFTs - and as we’ve all been advised to do LFTs before mixing with others and before all our Christmas and New Year plans, it seemed logical,to me that all these extra tests would have picked up a number of cases where the person has no symptoms - so if they hadn’t followed the advice to test before socialising, they wouldn't have known they had it.

I also think we should be dividing the hospital cases and deaths to differentiate between those who are admitted due to/die from covid from those who are admitted to hospital or die from another cause but are found to have covid on admission (but the covid has no effect on their illness or treatment).

At the moment, if I tested positive for covid today and then, once my isolation was over, I went out and was knocked down by a bus and died in hospital, I think I would be counted in the covid statistics, because I had died within 28 days of a positive test. Or if I was admitted to hospital having had a heart attack, and tested positive for covid on admission (I think they are testing everyone who is admitted), I think I’d be counted as an admission with covid - and again, if I died within 28 days of the test, I’d be counted in the stats.

It is the difference between admitted due to and admitted with, and died with and died from - if that makes sense.

I'd have thought the it far more likely that case numbers and volumes are under reported tbh.

LFTs are included, and if the subsequent PCR is negative, they are removed - hence in England data of cases by test type, the different types are seperated out by specimen date -

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England

How many people actually report their LFT results though? I do when I need them for work but not the 7 days worth I did recently.

I agree with PPs and would say under reporting.

My DSis has been trying to get a PCR since last Thursday and still none available so she is probably positive but not included in the figures due to the shortage of tests.

Looking at the figures today they said they’ve removed positive lateral flows that then were negative with PCR from 31st Dec and 1st Jan. I know a few people who haven’t been able to get PCR tests or don’t want to drive miles despite positive lateral flows so I imagine the cases are under reported.

No. Under. If you consider all the asymptomatic people and those with symptoms so mild they don't notice, plus the people who think they only have a cold, so don't test; plus the people who don't test because they can't get a test, or can't be bothered, or don't want to isolate; plus the false negative LFTs, and I think the reported figures at
are way below the reality.
I'm not anxious about covid in the least (have it now and fine) or a doom monger, but realistically I think its much more prevalent than the official figures indicate. I agree the figures for deaths are misleading for the reasons PP have given.

Factually yes we are op for hospital admissions.Chris witty discussed it. We report all incidental cases of Covid, Inc people admitted to mental health facilities.

So if you’re admitted to hospital due to a car crash, or broken leg, or heart attack and you happen to test positive for Covid , you are counted. They think it maybe as high as two thirds of hospital admissions

But for cases we will be under reporting. I know in delta they felt only ten percent of cases were captured, I’m not sure what it is for omicron, but if you use that scale then only ten percent of positive cases are reported. But remember we are a population of sixty odd million, and cases in their hundreds of thousands are still a low percentage.

Nope.
The opposite.
By a massive massive amount.
In other countries where self-administered tests are not permitted, every single LFT is logged automatically onto a central system.
The very countries that people in the UK accuse of manipulation of numbers, not understanding it's not remotely possible.
In the UK you can not report tests, upload a fake result etc.

@Cookerhood

How many people actually report their LFT results though? I do when I need them for work but not the 7 days worth I did recently.

I did tests before family arrived and left for Christmas, and one recently because I have a sore throat and cold - and all of them have been negative, as have dh’s and all the dses’ tests over the same time - it we have reported them all. Negative tests are a part of the statistics, so I think it is important to report them.

@PAFMO

Nope. The opposite. By a massive massive amount. In other countries where self-administered tests are not permitted, every single LFT is logged automatically onto a central system. The very countries that people in the UK accuse of manipulation of numbers, not understanding it's not remotely possible. In the UK you can not report tests, upload a fake result etc.

this

Under reporting because we have a nice shortage of tests, both PCR and LFT

How can more positives be recorded than there are?

1 person - 1 record.

I expect there are far higher numbers because of all those who either feel ill but refuse to test and all those who are asymptomatic.

@IncompleteSenten

How can more positives be recorded than there are?

1 person - 1 record.

I expect there are far higher numbers because of all those who either feel ill but refuse to test and all those who are asymptomatic.

They're not reporting people- they're reporting positives

I didn't realise LFT's weren't included. On that basis it makes sense to be massively underreporting!

@Bluntness100

Factually yes we are op for hospital admissions.Chris witty discussed it. We report all incidental cases of Covid, Inc people admitted to mental health facilities.

So if you’re admitted to hospital due to a car crash, or broken leg, or heart attack and you happen to test positive for Covid , you are counted. They think it maybe as high as two thirds of hospital admissions

But for cases we will be under reporting. I know in delta they felt only ten percent of cases were captured, I’m not sure what it is for omicron, but if you use that scale then only ten percent of positive cases are reported. But remember we are a population of sixty odd million, and cases in their hundreds of thousands are still a low percentage.

It's the same as deaths isn't it. We're reporting them as covid-related when a lot of them aren't

So if you’re admitted to hospital due to a car crash, or broken leg, or heart attack and you happen to test positive for Covid , you are counted. They think it maybe as high as two thirds of hospital admissions

Who is they? Only details I can find puts it at a third.

Sorry didn't tag @Bluntness100
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10358545/Proportion-NHS-beds-taken-incidental-Covid-patients-rises-33-figures-show.html

Definitely under reporting and I think it suits the government agenda, they had been told weeks ago how many cases to expect and all of a sudden there is a shortage of tests…

Negative tests are a part of the statistics, so I think it is important to report them.

What difference does it make if it's negative? I recently did 6 as I'd been in contact with a positive case and didn't report any as they were all negative.

If all the results, both positive and negative, are reported, @PinkSparklyPussyCat, then we get an accurate figure for the percentage of tests that are positive - if not all the negative tests are reported, then the percentage of positive covid is artificially higher than it should be.