Will omicron end the pandemic more quickly?

[Florelei]

After we have managed to get through this hideous wave are things expected to be more normal?

I don’t see how we can have high levels of cases indefinitely. Surely there’s got to come a point when we reach some sort of equilibrium and can resume a form of normality?

CoV is a short hand for the corinaviruses. 🤷

Just go away and read something reputable fgs.

There is no lasting immunity. This is the problem
Yes Omicron, at the moment, appears to be milder than Delta, this is good news. But there will be other variants of concern in the future and hopefully these too will be mild but then what if they are not? A mutation of Delta with the transmission capability of Omicron for example. Another nightmare scenario might be repeated infections that cause cumulative damage to the lungs, brain, heart etc. This is why science is cautious and not committed to calling 'an end'

My DS has now had it twice in 8 weeks. Not convinced the second time was Omicron as the rest of us didn't isolate from him (and he coughed in my face when I did his PCR) and none of us caught it, and neither did his school friends.

If there will never be an end we may as well knock all the restrictions on the head and go back to living as we did previously (+ vaccine)

AlecTrevelyan006

We can't go back. It's here and we need to face it, deal with it and most of all trust the science

Like a forest fire, we need to continually dampen it down. The scientists are the firefighters, using methods to contain it. Big water bomb planes are like the vaccines, lockdowns are like creating scorched earth barriers of containment. Testing is like a map of whats happening on the ground. Masks and social distancing are precautions all of us can take. But like a forest fire there will be sparks, like mutations, flying of unexpectedly and igniting new areas, evading vaccines and precautions. Dangerous changes in the wind, like a new variant of concern. Then the science firefighters will deal with it as it happens and new measures needed. Better than before

We need to contain it and moniter it, not just to prevent hospitals being overwhelmed but to prevent the chance of too many sparks, mutations. It's not all doom though. I do believe that as time goes by we will get back some kind of normality. We have already experienced in this year in the summer to an extent due to vaccines. Necessity is the mother of invention and all that. It's not all gloom

Here's to the science firefighters

It's (the virus) never going to go away.
We have never beaten the flu or the common cold, this one will be with us forever too.
It's too soon to be able to guess what that will mean long term.

We have already experienced in this year in the summer to an extent due to vaccines

That wasn’t due to vaccines though was it. That much is proven now.

That was due to the normal pattern of seasonal viruses. You know, the ones we’ve always just lived with and never had the need to eradicate (because we can’t).

That wasn’t due to vaccines though was it. That much is proven now.

It mostly was

That was due to the normal pattern of seasonal viruses. You know, the ones we’ve always just lived with and never had the need to eradicate (because we can’t).

It isn't seasonal. Or not looking that way ATM

Of course it’s seasonal. That’s why, regardless of vaccine status, it’s largely pissed off for the last two summers then come back in winter.

If it's easier to catch indoors with the windows closed it's going to act seasonally in the UK.🤷

@StillNo

We have already experienced in this year in the summer to an extent due to vaccines

That wasn’t due to vaccines though was it. That much is proven now.

That was due to the normal pattern of seasonal viruses. You know, the ones we’ve always just lived with and never had the need to eradicate (because we can’t).

That wasn’t due to vaccines though was it. That much is proven now

How has that been proven?

@Bluntness100

I think the experts are saying this is the end basically of the pandemic, the issue is of course vaccinations in poorer countries, which can prolong it.

This

How has that been proven?

Because in summer, even though all restrictions were eased, cases plummeted. Then once autumn rolled around, cases surged.

Like seasonal viruses do. Both years now.

@Florelei

In truth no one knows. Everyone hopes so but there could be another variant along.

I have been focusing on dealing with uncertainty!

StillNo
Of course it’s seasonal. That’s why, regardless of vaccine status, it’s largely pissed off for the last two summers then come back in winter.

It didn't piss of though during the summer, not in the USA and some other northern hemisphere countries 2020. India also had its biggest spike during its summer?

Climate might be a part of it, but how much, if at all, is not clear yet. Many other viruses in the past have not been seasonal.

@StillNo

How has that been proven?

Because in summer, even though all restrictions were eased, cases plummeted. Then once autumn rolled around, cases surged.

Like seasonal viruses do. Both years now.

Cases started to rise when restrictions were eased. Both Summers were relatively low infection numbers because of the lockdowns/restrictions in both Springs.

@StillNo

We ARE in a normal situation. People ALWAYS have colds this time of year (a term which encompasses many mutations of similar virus types). Most mild, some worse.

Just look around you right now and imagine; if you had never heard of covid on the news, if there was no such thing as LFT’s and no masks on people - would you actually think we were in a terrifying pandemic? Or just good old fashioned winter?

I’m not denying that covid wasn’t ravaging through at the start. But this is what viruses do. They constantly mutate and therefore weaken over time.

Indeed. A post came up on my fb memories yesterday from a few years ago, about how so many people I knew had horrible coughs and colds and it was like a plague had taken over the town.

@StillNo

How has that been proven?

Because in summer, even though all restrictions were eased, cases plummeted. Then once autumn rolled around, cases surged.

Like seasonal viruses do. Both years now.

All restrictions weren’t eased in the first summer and many people were still being very careful. Last summer the people most likely to be hospitalised were vaccinated and the data for vaccine efficacy was very clear.

But this is what viruses do. They constantly mutate and therefore weaken over time

You are either very ignorant or have an agenda. Viruses replicate and mutations are random. Some mutations enable viruses to spread and replicate more easily. They naturally become dominant. It doesn’t matter if it kills 100% of its hosts as long as it doesn’t do it before they’ve had chance to pass it on. If the latest variant is less virulent as well as more transmissible, we are lucky, especially as it has evolved some ability to evade natural or vaccine acquired immunity and it’s always had the ability to transmit before symptoms develop. Even colds have the ability to decimate naive populations btw.

@roadwarrior

I don't think there's any immunity to covid. You can catch it more than once. I know people who have caught it 3 times. Omicron can breakthrough vaccines so even the vaccinated are vulnerable. This pandemic will continue until the whole world is vaccinated (like smallpox) with a vaccine that is good enough to prevent breakthroughs. Until then we will go through the entire Greek alphabet and more. It won't go away by itself. People who think that are high on "hopium".

Vaccines appear to be very good at preventing serious disease, but not so good at preventing infection, so whereas continuing to expand vaccination is a very good thing, I don't see it as being the thing that will end the pandemic. Omicron "ripping through" is potentially the thing that will, along with widespread vaccination, turn the pandemic into much lower level threat.

Variants will continue to emerge, but there's little evolutionary benefit in becoming more virulent, as becoming more virulent tends to lead to individuals retreating from others due to their symptoms. It may happen, but we'd be unlucky.

I'm trying to stay optimistic that covid is turning endemic into a cold-flu type virus (omicron) - that will be here to stay but not as dangerous and not do as much harm as it did in the early days last year - esp as we now have more antibodies through natural infection and/or vaccines. However, my realistic side is very much on guard as it can mutate again and may become more lethal.
I'm not convinced it's seasonal as Sydney is in the height of summer now and cases are climbing rapidly there at the moment too with omicron. However in the summer we are out in the fresh air more and not as crowded together indoors, plus schools and unis are closed for the summer so it may spread less effectively.
Like most of us - I'm utterly fed up and sick of it. I consider myself one of the lucky ones where it hasn't had an impact on our work, or health yet but it's had a huge impact on my two teens who have missed so much. Their education turned into a disaster and there was no big 16th or 18th birthday party or prom etc. But really that's nothing compared to what some have been through so I can't complain. Trying to keep optimistic if we can get through the next few months we'll be in a better place in Spring. I hope we get that elusive herd immunity and that it continues to mutate to a milder form.

@treeflowercat I do worry that allowing omicron to rip through society without any extra mitigations like improved air filtration and ventilation will just prolong the pandemic because it will allow for more variants, potentially more lethal and transmissible ones. We might never get on top of the virus and could end up forever playing catch up with it.

[quote JustMaggie]@treeflowercat I do worry that allowing omicron to rip through society without any extra mitigations like improved air filtration and ventilation will just prolong the pandemic because it will allow for more variants, potentially more lethal and transmissible ones. We might never get on top of the virus and could end up forever playing catch up with it.[/quote]
Air filtration and ventilation are beneficial and I believe the Government has paid insufficient attention to this. However,
these can only hope to take some of the edge off omicron infection rates.... it will just take slightly longer for the same number of people to get infected with the variant.

As for mutations, there seems to be little evolutionary advantage in becoming more virulent... Increased virulence means people with the virus are more likely to self-isolate naturally - no one is as social when you've got a fever and are feeling crap!

That's not to say that a more virulent variant couldn't emerge, but the same could be said for any number of other common cold viruses that have been endemic for decades if not centuries. We never worry about those in that way!