We need a new Covid Strategy...

[Hazelnutbean]

Suppressing Omicron, a disease that seems to be little more than a bad cold for most (having had the protection of vaccines or prior infection) seems to be so transmissible that it will be impossible to contain unless we live a permanent lockdown.

Wouldn't a better strategy be to just accept this and:
a) allow it to pass through low risk groups scrapping isolation, with people just off work if too ill;
b) bring back shielding for the CEV extending to whole households to allow proper protection, fully financially
and practically supported;

The latter would put a dent in workforce numbers, but so is all the isolation that current measures require, but the speed of Omicron transmission would mean that if it was allowed to spread exponentially in low risk groups (most of whom would only need a couple of days off if at all) it max out in a couple of weeks and burn out in a month or so, meaning these measures would only be needed for six weeks or so.

Yes, it's a bit shit for those shielding with their families, but if we carry on as we are, they'll likely have to shield anyway but for longer.

Hi GBD.

As the Govt strategy is to just let it pass through with little or no mitigations, we will see.

Simple answer is No.

I honestly don't think there's a good or simple answer to this

Longer answer:

What would be better would be following expert advice including the WHO - the doctors and scientists. Basically the people with the knowledge and experience and understanding.

SARS-CoV-2 is a novel virus - quite possibly escaped from the Wuhan Institute of Virology's bat coronavirus lab. It's even potentially human engineered (and therefore not natural).

The CV comprise over half of the UK's population. CEV shielding alone won't stop hospitals being overrun, not least because some of the highest risk of death from Covid conditions weren't actually included in the CEV groups.

Even just 'mild' cases in young healthy people is knocking many out for a couple of weeks... Loads and loads happening all at the same time means big problem if you need anything - because the staff will all be off sick.

A significant minority of young healthy will develop Long Covid. Awful for the individuals suffering, and also an issue for the economy.

I feel like we've discussed this before with Alpha and Delta and the original covid.

We're not doing much to stop Omicron right now @Hazelnutbean and we'll begin to reap the rewards of that next week.

a) allow it to pass through low risk groups scrapping isolation, with people just off work if too ill;
b) bring back shielding for the CEV extending to whole households to allow proper protection,

Sooooo you're planning on having covid positive NHS workers and carers (people in group a.) look after patients and people with care needs (i.e. group b.).

How is that going to work out, exactly?

I can't believe we're back to "Take it On the chin" again.

But on the bright side no one on here has told me that covid is in endemic equilibrium for about a fortnight.

burn out in a month or so

Hello again GBD

There's a reason no credible epidemiologists are recommending this approach, even those who tend to be on the less cautious side

Sooooo you're planning on having covid positive NHS workers and carers (people in group a.) look after patients and people with care needs (i.e. group b.).How is that going to work out, exactly?

Back in March 2020 there wasn't the PPE to do this. Now there is... Clinicians and carers would have FFP3 masks etc to minimise any transmission.

@Motorina

*a) allow it to pass through low risk groups scrapping isolation, with people just off work if too ill; b) bring back shielding for the CEV extending to whole households to allow proper protection,*

Sooooo you're planning on having covid positive NHS workers and carers (people in group a.) look after patients and people with care needs (i.e. group b.).

How is that going to work out, exactly?

I think the government is planing to do that judging by how often I'm seeing it suggested on here.

All my NHS buddies seem to be redeploying admin staff to boosters and the oximetry at home service

In a non-goady way, what experience & expertise do you bring that makes you think you know better @Hazelnutbean?

Even just 'mild' cases in young healthy people is knocking many out for a couple of weeks... Loads and loads happening all at the same time means big problem if you need anything - because the staff will all be off sick.

For most it's a cold... For some it will be bad. The isolation is taking far more staff out than the illness. Some will need to be off for a couple of weeks ill, but we're forcing everyone to isolate for a fortnight!

@riveted1

burn out in a month or so

Hello again GBD

There's a reason no credible epidemiologists are recommending this approach, even those who tend to be on the less cautious side

Yeah.

What evidence from the past two years implies that covid has ever or will ever "just burn out" if we sacrifice enough of our population on the Great Barrington altar of herd immunity?

It doesn't burn out.

It mutates into something worse.

Or it has so far, anyway.

@IWannaWishYouANutNutsChristmas

I can't believe we're back to "Take it On the chin" again.

We're in a different place now with vaccines to where we were when this was said back in March 2020. Seriously I'm very pro-vaccine and have been boosted but what's the point if it changes nothing!

@Hazelnutbean

Sooooo you're planning on having covid positive NHS workers and carers (people in group a.) look after patients and people with care needs (i.e. group b.).How is that going to work out, exactly?

Back in March 2020 there wasn't the PPE to do this. Now there is... Clinicians and carers would have FFP3 masks etc to minimise any transmission.

Would they?

Where's that coming from them then?

Because the reason there wasn't adequate PPE in 2020 was our government.

And they're still the government.

Unless of course a couple of Conservative Party donors have been primed well in advance of now to make FFP3s?

@Hazelnutbean

Even if removing the isolation for period for those with coronvirus meant people could go about normal life (and tbh I do think you're underestimating the impact of infection - for enough people to cause problems, it's not just "a cold")

You cannot have COVID+ people working in a hospital, I cannot express strongly enough how fucking awful this would be. ICU wards, immunocompromised patients, pregnant women. It is not a viable solution to pretend that infectious people can just go about their lives as clinical staff.

The CV comprise over half of the UK's population. CEV shielding alone won't stop hospitals being overrun, not least because some of the highest risk of death from Covid conditions weren't actually included in the CEV groups.

That was the case in the original and Alpha waves, but it simply hasn't been the case since the vaccine roll out. We're no longer in 2020 and those CV at high risk before are no longer anything like as at risk since vaccination.

It's ironic that the message of your post is effectively an anti-vaccination one.... You're effectively saying they've been pretty much worthless as they're all still as much at risk as they were, when that's not the case at all!

@Tealightsandd

SARS-CoV-2 is a novel virus

It was a novel virus back in early 2020. Not so much now... I'd be agreeing with your posts had you written them back in early/mid 2020, but you seem to be in a time warp where things haven't moved on!

You cannot have COVID+ people working in a hospital, I cannot express strongly enough how fucking awful this would be. ICU wards, immunocompromised patients, pregnant women. It is not a viable solution to pretend that infectious people can just go about their lives as clinical staff.

I understand that it's disquieting, but where's the actual risk if property fitted, medical-grade, PPE is used?

@riveted1 exactly so. I'm guessing there's a possibility we may reach that point (I think it was Belgium that did last winter) as the least awful of all alternatives, but it doesn't alter the fact it would be bloody awful.

@Hazelnutbean have you tried wearing an FFP3 mask with even a relatively minor cold? I have. It's bloody awful. You can't blow your own nose. You can't take a sip of water to soothe your throat. Every time you cough or sneeze you splatter the inside of the mask and your face with snot-goo, which you then can't wipe off. And you then end up breathing in recirculated cough-fumes, which taste and smell like old socks and misery. It's possibly my least pleasant sensory experience of the decade.

And that's assuming your FFP3 is one that filters on both inhale and exhale. Not all do, so your patients may well not be protected, anyway.

Even if removing the isolation for period for those with coronvirus meant people could go about normal life (and tbh I do think you're underestimating the impact of infection - for enough people to cause problems, it's not just "a cold")

It wasn't pre-vaccine admittedly .... But for most fully vaccinated under 50s, Covid is very minor, it really is. Some get it worse than others and it's equivalent to the flu, but very few in this category are properly ill.

And that's assuming your FFP3 is one that filters on both inhale and exhale. Not all do, so your patients may well not be protected, anyway.

Obviously they'd have to do both... It may have been excusable not to have had these back in March 2020 in hospitals. It would be outrageous if that were still the case.

@Hazelnutbean

You cannot have COVID+ people working in a hospital, I cannot express strongly enough how fucking awful this would be. ICU wards, immunocompromised patients, pregnant women. It is not a viable solution to pretend that infectious people can just go about their lives as clinical staff.

I understand that it's disquieting, but where's the actual risk if property fitted, medical-grade, PPE is used?

No it's not disquieting it's nonsensical @Hazelnutbean

I don't think you understand what being a hospital doctor actually involves.

There so are many things that wearing full PPE for your entire shift would impact - there are many types of surgery that would be impossible.

I refer back to my earlier post - there is a reason no credible epidemiologists are recommending your approach, including that COVID+ staff work in hospitals & care homes.

In a non-goady way, what experience & expertise do you bring that makes you think you know better @Hazelnutbean?