Why the panic of Omicron is mild?

[WineGetsMeThroughIt]

All of this just seems utter bollocks. A handful of new cases of a variant that could potentially pose less of a threat than delta. Yet with delta we were basically told to keep calm and carry on. No masks, no isolating, children or C+ parents going to school, no social distancing or any rules really.

I'm seeing news reports now encouraging everyone to go get their booster jab and their flu jab to help protect against the new variant and flu this winter. But if you come in contact or test positive with Omicron even if you're fully vaccinated then you must isolate for 8 days. Then seeing other reports saying that Omicron is resistant to the vaccine, so the pharm companies are rushing out a new vaccine - so potentially everyone will be encouraged to get a 4th vaccine.

Meanwhile even though you're vaccinated you can still spread it and it's been said that the first positive case of Omicron to enter this country was via a fully vaxx'd person because that's the only way you can travel now. But the vaccines were the ticket of this pandemic they said. Obviously there are fewer ill people because of the vaccine, but there are also a lot of people experiencing worrying Ng side effects with them as well. What will the build up of all these vaccines be doing to us I wonder. Genuine question we may not know for years.

Im just getting so fed up with all this now. It's so depressing

To scare people

I think the government is, as usual, not panicking enough.

We need to lockdown everything again and vaccinate absolutely everyone.

[quote chesirecat99]The panic is because we know that omicron has 2 mutations that we have seen before that increase transmissibility but have not occurred together in previous variants; it has mutations that we know affect the ability of antibodies to identify the virus and bind to the virus so immunity from vaccination or infection may not be as good; and it has some other mutations that make the virus fitter/stronger. What we don't know is to what extent the combination of those mutations while affect transmissibility, virulence (severity of illness) and immune escape.

There is no real evidence that omicron is mild, just some anecdotal data based on a handful of young, healthy patients. We don't even know how many cases there are yet. You need a huge sample of many thousands to be able to even start trying to learn anything about how virulent/transmissible it is. It's going to take weeks to get that data and, in the worst case scenario, if omicron can evade the vaccine/natural immunity and is more transmissible than previous variants (whether it is more virulent or not), then it will be too late to stop/mitigate the spread if we wait for the data.

www.imperial.ac.uk/news/232217/qa-imperial-experts-discuss-variant-b11529/[/quote]
Thanks for this informative, helpful post cheshirecat99.

It's a waiting game now, I suppose.

if being the main point. until more is known, you take precautions. Better than waiting until its too late, right?

@hamstersarse

No-one has ever said that vaccination is a ticket out of the pandemic

It's funny how the narrative changes so much.

Literally a week ago it was all about the unvaccinated keeping the pandemic going (i.e. the only way out of this is to have everyone vaccinated).

When the vaccines were 'launched' it was literally called V-Day.

This.

I actually laughed out loud when I read that post. You actually couldn't make it up. I'm filing this under 'People Have Short Memories' along with 'you were always allowed to be in a bubble and meet other people outside for a walk' which I have seen on several threads over the last week or so.

I won’t be getting a booster. I got the first 2 jabs, thinking I would be able to travel (relatively) freely. But it’s all been too much hassle. I like going on cheap mini breaks to Europe, tests costing £££ makes it not worth it. Plus I couldn’t keep up with the ever changing rules.

I wfh, very rarely go anywhere. Groceries delivered etc. No family nearby and a lot of my friendships drifted over the last couple of years, so I don’t mix much. I’ll have a booster, once I actually have a good reason to. At the moment I don’t.

@theemperorhasnoclothes yes a racing pulse in a six year old does not seem like a mild symptom to me.

Omicron appears to be highly infectious.

If 10 million contract the virus, and just 1 in 1000 cases requires invasive ventilation in ICU for an extensive period of time, we have a very serious health crisis as the NHS does not have 10,000 ICU beds.

To bring boosters in for all over 18 and the time down to 3 months after your second dose sounds like they are pretty alarmed at the implications

@KerryWeaver

Omicron appears to be highly infectious.

If 10 million contract the virus, and just 1 in 1000 cases requires invasive ventilation in ICU for an extensive period of time, we have a very serious health crisis as the NHS does not have 10,000 ICU beds.

Yes.

And how many are still unvaccinated in this country? 30%. About 20 million?

I know many unvaccinated people and you would need to knock them out first before they would have it.
They won't be swayed either.

@KerryWeaver

Omicron appears to be highly infectious.

If 10 million contract the virus, and just 1 in 1000 cases requires invasive ventilation in ICU for an extensive period of time, we have a very serious health crisis as the NHS does not have 10,000 ICU beds.

Who says 10 million people, most of whom are at least double vaccinated are going to get omicron at the same time?!

The government vaccine advisor has literally just said in the last few minutes that vaccines will still offer some protection and that boosters will add to that even against omicron.

How on earth do you get to the point of deciding that 10 million will have it all at the same time?!

This isn't based on any kind of real world reality. Its just numbers picked up out of the air and thrown around to be scary.

JVT and the vaccine expert on sky today wasn't ' hysterical'. Just measured information that was easy to understand for a non science person like me.
I think they are showing caution and hoping that people will do their bit.

The announcements just made are to get everyone through the system in the next 8 weeks or so before omicron case levels get to critical levels.

Thats going to be some push. But I actually think its sensible and makes sense. Its basically everyone getting this years winter covid jab.

And yes its probably likely to not be dissimilar next year tbh.

@hamstersarse

No-one has ever said that vaccination is a ticket out of the pandemic

It's funny how the narrative changes so much.

Literally a week ago it was all about the unvaccinated keeping the pandemic going (i.e. the only way out of this is to have everyone vaccinated).

When the vaccines were 'launched' it was literally called V-Day.

Are you kidding? I’ve never heard the term “V-day” and it’s been stressed by literally every scientific briefing that vaccines are not a way out and that there is likely to be a decent amount of transmission and vaccine escape even with the most effective vaccines. No reputable newspaper or government or scientific source has ever said vaccines are the ticket out.

I don’t know about the tabloid press as I don’t read it. But if you’re getting your scientific news from the Daily Express or similar I cannot help you really. Please try to read some decent reputable scientific information rather than just making stuff up (or believing daft sources).

@FflosFfantastig

To ensure that everyone remains scared and compliant.

Compliant with what? The request to wear masks slightly more frequently? We are all robots 🙄.

@foxgoosefinch

No-one has ever said that vaccination is a ticket out of the pandemic. (Hardly likely given the number of people who refuse to have it.)

Scientists and medics were upfront from the very start about the continued risks posed by variants and vaccine escape.

Weren’t you listening?

As I recall actually, when the chap from Oxford announced the preliminary results from the vaccine trials in autumn 2020 on the radio, he said he anticipated fairly normal life by spring 2021. Remember?

[quote julieca]@theemperorhasnoclothes yes a racing pulse in a six year old does not seem like a mild symptom to me.[/quote]
Racing pulse in anyone is pretty standard with even mild viral infections including colds. It's pretty much a side effect of your body working harder to fight an infection. My resting heart rate jumps by 10-20 bpm (25-50% in my case as my normal rate is around 40) whenever I have a cold.

www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54873105.amp

@foxgoosefinch

Great - no need for me to have a booster then if vaccines don't solve it?

Gets a bit of a bind this whole "It's the unvaccinated causing the problems" which today is now " vaccination doesn't stop the pandemic"

What to do for the best eh.

As I recall actually, when the chap from Oxford announced the preliminary results from the vaccine trials in autumn 2020 on the radio, he said he anticipated fairly normal life by spring 2021. Remember?

No, I know people who worked on the Oxford AZ trials and their initial reports anticipated around 50% efficacy and their first announcements were pretty cautious. They were pleasantly surprised to discover it went up higher in the later phase trials. That would never give back to normal by spring 2021 - they didn’t even complete the phase III trials until then and there wasn’t stock available to vaccinate anywhere near the population by spring 2021!

I’m afraid you must be either misremembering (or wishfully making things up a bit).

Literally every briefing given by Whitty/Valance/Van Tam has said they are anticipating several years of varying levels of restrictions, especially during the winter. They have been very clear about this all the way along.

No I'm not. Read that link I posted of the interview he gave on the radio.

[quote hamstersarse]@foxgoosefinch

Great - no need for me to have a booster then if vaccines don't solve it?

Gets a bit of a bind this whole "It's the unvaccinated causing the problems" which today is now " vaccination doesn't stop the pandemic"

What to do for the best eh.[/quote]
? Because no vaccine is perfect you won’t have one at all?

That’s daft on steroids.

Every vaccine has vaccine escape. That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t have it.

For myself, I’m literally on the internet looking at when I can book my booster now the JCVI has just announced the interval is halved. Pfizer and Israeli data suggested that efficacy goes up to in the 90s after the booster; if Omicron were to reduce this to around 50-70 percent that would still be a huge benefit. But we can’t know yet until the data comes in. In the meantime the booster is the best bet.

That's what I'm remembering and that's what a lot of people remember, because it was such a big news item at the time. The radio presenter's visible joy when she heard the news was caught on camera

In the meantime the booster is the best bet.

Is this the booster not based on Omicron?

Sounds sensible