Closing the borders: is it worth it any more?

[TomelettewithGreggs]

Let me say that I am not a scientist. I follow a few on Twitter. Some are saying that closing borders is a weak tool now that we have the vaccine and better testing. In particular, Ashish Jha of Brown University. In any case, Omicron is already in the UK and in most countries. Closing borders will just hurt global trade and the economy, and is not sustainable any more. Instead, he suggests better testing and the inevitable vaccine passports, or maybe even both.

What do people think?

It may have not happened quickly enough to be fair but

The quickest (and actually cheapest - taking into long-term consequences including, but not only, long covid) way out would be for the whole world to temporarily enact pandemic border control.

Is in effect what happened last year. And it was awful and it got us nowhere because this virus isnt about to die out with nowhere to go.

Sensible precautions and proactive mitigations as a balanced approach isnt shutting down the borders at all.

Long COvid isnt the only longer term thing we need to be mindful of!

Ok, so I think closing borders will slow the introduction of the variant. Which will buy us tome to re vaccinate against delta. Because of this variant is worse in any way, at least delta will be curbed a bit better, and if the vaccine is partly effective, then more immunity in the population will be a countermeasure. It's basically a numbers game, whether we have restriction or lock down or whatever is everything to do with protecting hospital capacity.

Early rumours are that it is more transmissible, like to escape the virus (although degree of escape unknown) and severity of disease unknown.

Closing the borders just gives us time to find out. The last thing we want is a virus spreading without the time to mitigate and prepare if required. If not then happy days.

in effect what happened last year.

Not in the UK. Or Europe.

And it was awful and it got us nowhere

Because we didn't do what was needed to be done. And I don't just mean pandemic border control (which would include real quarantine, eg. not spreading it on your travel from airport to home). I'm talking other mitigations too.

Look at Singapore, Vietnam, Thailand, Hong Kong, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and actually China too. NZ. Australia. Also much of Africa.

It's given them the push to introduce some curbs to manage the christmas and winter period. High rates, no mitigations, christmas socialising and wide spread international travel was a recipe for disaster even before omicron. Now they can say it out loud and hope for a bit more public support.

At this stage the only point of border closure would be if the whole world did it. At the same time. Temporary of course. For a few months.

I doubt it will happen. But it certainly should have back in early 2020.

Right now what we can do is better mitigations around travel. Proper (airport) hotel quarantine if super high risk country (although tbh that's us more than many other places!).

Required negative test before travel in and out. And proof of vaccine (possibly exempted if negative test).

Ideally we'd follow the rest of Europe and much of the world with vaccine &/or negative test passports too for restaurants, bars, etc.

But hopefully boosters will be enough instead.

And we have drug treatments coming. Initial short supply but there will be more eventually. It's not all bad news

Let's just learn (the whole world) from this mistake for any future pandemic.

CommanderBurnham - it is here, likely has been here awhile considering cases picked up in Essex and Scotland are from community spread rather than travel. So a border closure really would not have helped.

Teaslights maybe if we had all handled it differently back in 2020 it could have been different. But I doubt it. And you never seem to grasp the full implications of what actual border closure would mean - that becomes a point where the cure is more dangerous that the disease.

I am all for a measured sensible approach. I do not think that closing down borders (which in some cases would be impossible) is the answer.

China is the only place which has come close to shutting it down and that is a difficult kettle of fish entirely

It is you who fails to grasp.

Had the whole world implemented temporary pandemic border restrictions (the only country in the world with completely closed borders is North Korea) the whole thing would have been over with in a few short months.

Temporary border restrictions, and isolating the small number of cases already around, and the misery of the last 2 years would be just a bad dream.

SARS-Cov-2 would never have had the chance to spread so widely, wreak so much health and economic damage, and mutate.

South Korea, Singapore, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, NZ, Australia, Vietnam, and yes China too.

All continued genuinely essential travel in and out. Freight, emergency, etc.

Compare our death rates, and separately sheer number of deaths and long term disabilities, with theirs.

And guess which economies suffered worse. Hint, not Asia Pacific.

Our cure? Repeated lockdowns, mass death and disability, ruined businesses, mental health tsunami, huge NHS backlog (and dead and long term sick HCP). Nearly two years of misery and long-term domestic restrictions.

Yeah. Temporary border control was always the better way. For lives, health and the economy.

It's too late now (save for a miraculous worldwide agreement to do a couple of months) but it's vitally important to acknowledge and remember the mistakes of history. Lessons need to be learned.... For the next time.

(the only country in the world with completely closed borders is North Korea)

Which… still got covid.

Anyway: I can see the case for short-term border restrictions while we find out more about omicron, I suppose, but I have very little faith in governments’ ability to keep short-term things short-term.

@Tealightsandd you cannot possibly assert it would have been over though at all. You have no idea if closing the borders would have worked. What point would you have done it. When it first appeared it China? The first case in the UK? How would you manage to have countries who didn't have it shut down

I quite adequately grasp the fact that if it was possible (and I dont think it would ever have happened or indeed would ever be possible every country working together in unison has never happened it wasnt going to for this) that may have been one outcome but you cannot possibly assert that it would have done so. You have no idea. You think it might have done so but the truth is by the time it was highlighted as an issue it was already too late.

Had it been flagged properly at the beginning it may have been a different story but the real lesson that needs to be learnt is a proper approach to flagging up these things - which to be fair seems to have quicken this time with Omicron rather than Alpha and Delta

So yes I grasp the fact that we consider things differently and personally the initial handling in China means it never would have been that way.

That isnt to say we handled it well though because we havent.

You have no idea if closing the borders would have worked. What point would you have done it. When it first appeared it China? The first case in the UK? How would you manage to have countries who didn't have it shut down

It got in to East Asia and NZ too. Difference is they implemented the same basic infection control known about since at least the 14th century times of the plague.

Identify and isolate the cases. Test, track, and trace. Done properly. Which prevents wider spread.

We actually did do that at the start before it was abandoned for the disastrous individually and economically let the bodies pile up policy.

every country working together in unison has never happened it wasnt going to for this)

I agree it's an unlikely occurrence (although we can but hope lessons have been learned for the next pandemic).

However, worldwide policy agreement actually isn't without precedent. There's the global war on drugs.

Worldwide opium (and opium derivatives) ban, for example (despite it being less harmful than alcohol).

An interesting bit of history here. We held off longer than many other countries. Our pre 1960s drugs policy saved lives, health, and jobs (except perhaps law enforcement since there were fewer people to arrest...).

It was a compassionate and sensible approach. Heroin and morphine addicts - the vast majority of whom had become addicted due to WW1 conflict or after a medical issue/operation, registered as an addict with their GP. They received a safe daily medical grade dose...and got on with their lives. Many around them never even knew. Most were productive working members of society.

The war on drugs created hugely lucrative criminal trade. It is responsible for so much misery and suffering around the world - both addicts taking unregulated doses and forced to turn to crime to fund their habit, and the communities affected by drug gang warfare.

Anyway sorry I digress. Back to covid

I think the lack of a worldwide vaccine programme is even more of an issue @Tealightsandd than border control. If we had done that we would have been in a better situation of controlling it than we are now.

TomelettewithGreggs

Closing the borders can work both ways of course With other countries keeping the UK out. Last year the dialogue was more about keeping the variants out of the UK ,but this year we know variants can be anywhere.“

Which is as it should be. There’s nothing special about UK citizens.

@Quartz2208

I think the lack of a worldwide vaccine programme is even more of an issue *@Tealightsandd* than border control. If we had done that we would have been in a better situation of controlling it than we are now.

We wouldn't need to vaccinate anyone had there been a global border restriction.

However that's in the past (to be part of lessons learned for the next pandemic).

I agree that now we need to vaccinate the world.

Donations are great but won't get it done as fast as a temporary patent waiver.

It got in to East Asia and NZ too. Difference is they implemented the same basic infection control known about since at least the 14th century times of the plague.

ah yes, the 14th century, well known for its contact tracing, disposable masks, hand-washing and work-from-home protocols.

@GoldenOmber

It got in to East Asia and NZ too. Difference is they implemented the same basic infection control known about since at least the 14th century times of the plague.

ah yes, the 14th century, well known for its contact tracing, disposable masks, hand-washing and work-from-home protocols.

It isn't as odd as it sounds. Even during the Plague, mask-wearing was common, as was the use of isolation and the tracing of where infected people of been. Rudimentary, yes, but it existed.

Yes plague masks are a frightening sight actually!

Apparently back in the plague times, there was an English village who knew they had plague and voted to isolate themselves to stop the spread.

The next village was happy to put food down on the outskirts for the villagers and retreat so there was no contact and in the knowledge that they would be safe as long as people stayed put on the infected village until it blew over. I think nearly everyone died in the village but their sacrifice halted the spread.

Totally diff situation to nowadays i know. Mentioning only because there are ways of dealing with infection and isolation is nothing new.

Countries that have dealt with CV the best but without closing borders, have used very good public health and contact trace measures, intrusive, using CC and mobile phone data and strict isolation but which is worse?

Personally, i think PCR travel tests should be at cost charge and run by the public sector & anyone forced to isolate should be provided with a decent rate of sick pay.

It should not be a means for companies to use it as a get rich quick scheme, whilst offering a terrible service.

@MrsSkylerWhite

TomelettewithGreggs

Closing the borders can work both ways of course With other countries keeping the UK out. Last year the dialogue was more about keeping the variants out of the UK ,but this year we know variants can be anywhere.“

Which is as it should be. There’s nothing special about UK citizens.

I agree. I am not a UK citizen:) I am an expatriate realising that my way of life won't exist much longer. Probably better for the planet I guess....

Yes, that’s a whole other debate, isn’t it.

Closing the borders was never an option for the UK. We aren’t self sufficient for one & also you may have noticed, migrants come across the channel frequently anyway.