How the UK Sleepwalked into Another Covid Disaster article

[middleager]

'By failing to prevent the rapid spread of coronavirus in schools, Boris Johnson has thrown children and adults to the wolves.'

As a late 40 something who caught Covid off my son in September (who caught it at secondary school) and was ill for weeks, there's a lot in this article that resonates. My other son caught Covid at his secondary school and while it was inevitable, schools have just been left to get on with it.

Wanted to share:

www.newstatesman.com/comment/2021/11/how-the-uk-sleepwalked-into-another-covid-disaster

@herecomesthsun I said ELIGIBLE (not a fan of caps but you seem to think they’re necessary). And if your son, who is vulnerable, has only just received his second jab and won’t actually be protected until December then why do you think rolling out the jab to other teens earlier would have been any different when the single dose, that was approved for healthy teens, has even lower impact on protection against infection/transmission.

“Estimated BNT162b2 effectiveness against any SARS-CoV-2 infection was negligible in the first 2 weeks after the first dose. It increased to 36.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 33.2 to 40.2) in the third week after the first dose and reached its peak at 77.5% (95% CI, 76.4 to 78.6) in the first month after the second dose. Effectiveness declined gradually thereafter, with the decline accelerating after the fourth month to reach approximately 20% in months 5 through 7 after the second dose.”

Another ‘load of crap’ for you from the NEJM

www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2114114

I can see why it chimes on here for various reasons but he’s got the same information as posters do

Not sure why he feels that is enough to have an uninformed opinion re JCVI but he’s a TV writer campaigning after being in hospital for Covid so I guess that’s his motivation

I couldn’t stand the writing, the other one linked by pp was better

@CakesOfVersailles

The part I really don't understand is why UK teenagers are only being offered one jab.

Presumably because they shipped 4 million doses off to Oz over the Summer to get that Trade deal signed.

They are now in the perfect storm of having several million kids still waiting for the school vaccine service to turn up as well as millions of middle aged people being told to get their boosters ASAP. I am guessing at least 1/4 of pupils won't be eligible because they've been ill with Covid in the past month.

Thankfully I'm not in a massive hurry to get my booster (I do antibody tests every month and still have N and S antibodies), but there are no appointments free at our nearest mass vaccine centre and the next closest place is about an hour's drive away on a good day.

That's shit whyarewe
I'm really sorry to hear that.

I was off work for a few weeks after too. I wasn't the only staff member down either (education).

Mine have mocks and I know year 11 has a number of cases. Just hoping they can complete these exams (in their face masks) and don't get it for a second time.
They've already had so many disruptions - 7 and 5 self isolations last year, and Covid. 10 weeks for one at home, not even allowed out.

Actually, not 10 weeks. 7 isolations @10 days each is 70 days of isolation between September and December last year for one 15 year old. 50 days for the other.

[quote bumbleymummy]@herecomesthsun I said ELIGIBLE (not a fan of caps but you seem to think they’re necessary). And if your son, who is vulnerable, has only just received his second jab and won’t actually be protected until December then why do you think rolling out the jab to other teens earlier would have been any different when the single dose, that was approved for healthy teens, has even lower impact on protection against infection/transmission.

“Estimated BNT162b2 effectiveness against any SARS-CoV-2 infection was negligible in the first 2 weeks after the first dose. It increased to 36.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 33.2 to 40.2) in the third week after the first dose and reached its peak at 77.5% (95% CI, 76.4 to 78.6) in the first month after the second dose. Effectiveness declined gradually thereafter, with the decline accelerating after the fourth month to reach approximately 20% in months 5 through 7 after the second dose.”

Another ‘load of crap’ for you from the NEJM

www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2114114[/quote]
Okay I'll avoid caps .

The vaccine was approved for 12-15s on June 4th

If my son had been able to have his first done in June and his second dose 8 weeks later in August, then he would have had a decent level of protection by September, do you follow?

This would have been before term started, which would have been an inteliigent process.

We have lots of good evidence that vaccines are pretty effective and that boosters are pretty effective if they wane, thanks.

@MarshaBradyo

I can see why it chimes on here for various reasons but he’s got the same information as posters do

Not sure why he feels that is enough to have an uninformed opinion re JCVI but he’s a TV writer campaigning after being in hospital for Covid so I guess that’s his motivation

I couldn’t stand the writing, the other one linked by pp was better

Well, we have plenty of information about what is happening in schools.

Enough for anyone to criticise the JCVI if they want to.

Hard not to be critical, really, of all the unnecessary dithering.

Quite liked the style of writing myself.

What data do you think they were waiting on Here?

Was it important and would you have proceeded without it?

Yes, they had enough data to proceed (just as Europe and America did)

Anyone that tries to sound informed on a few facts like that

Mixed with a heavy dose of emotion is pretty much recoil territory for me

That people didn’t click he was a TV writer but thought it based on anything reasoned and scientific adds to that.

@herecomesthsun

Yes, they had enough data to proceed (just as Europe and America did)

What did they wait on specifically?

@herecomesthsun oh I completely agree that they should have rolled it out to vulnerable children much quicker so that they were protected for school starting. I was replying to your point that the current situation irt slow rollout for other healthy teens was putting vulnerable children at risk. If they’d done a better job of vaccinating vulnerable children over the summer, the slow rollout for healthy teens now wouldn’t be an issue for them. (And I dislike having to use ‘healthy’ as the opposite of vulnerable but you know what I mean)

@MarshaBradyo oh nothing important enough to delay other nations and yes yes yes I would have proceeded without it.

They could have acknowledged the state of the international response and given parents the choice

Ireland approved vaccines for over 12s during the summer. Waterford is the county with the highest vaccination rate - 96% of over 12 population are fully vaxxed. It is also the county with the highest covid rates. Ireland as a whole has higher rates than the U.K. for the last few weeks. I don’t think there are easy answers here.

[quote herecomesthsun]@MarshaBradyo oh nothing important enough to delay other nations and yes yes yes I would have proceeded without it.[/quote]
You don’t know.

Unless you can identify the data it’s just speculation from afar

Perhaps you should get into a position on an expert body to be part of decision making?

Hopefully despite all this we won’t end up with experts removing themselves from positions like this for the uninformed opinionated.

@MarshaBradyo

Anyone that tries to sound informed on a few facts like that

Mixed with a heavy dose of emotion is pretty much recoil territory for me

That people didn’t click he was a TV writer but thought it based on anything reasoned and scientific adds to that.

It doesn't matter that he is a TV writer - if he is actually right.

No you think he is right because it could have been written by you.

You need to do better than that if you want accuracy.

Too muddled

I was struck by its clarity.

I’m not sure ‘Spiked’ has the same credibility as the ‘New Statesman’

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spiked_(magazine)

credibility

What credibility do you afford to the author?

the uninformed opinionated. Speak for yourself.

I'm delighted that Dingwall was removed - or left - for one. Unimformed and opinionated seems to describe him very well.

I think that there is enough public interest in these decisions for bodies to need to take into account that there will be a high degree of public scrutiny.

It is also healthy for there to be public discussion about public decisions and policy. This dithering and lack of organisation has put vulnerable children at risk. It is right and proper to have discussion about it.

@MarshaBradyo

No you think he is right because it could have been written by you.

You need to do better than that if you want accuracy.

and you don't like it because it doesn't fit with your existing prejudices.

accuracy doesn't come into it

Speak for yourself

I’m fine with listening to experts, whether Oxford team. CMO, MRHA, CSA or JCVI

Not an insult to me. I also hope that as a society we don’t drive experts away from transparency and being in public domain - I remember the vaccine team feeling deflated from backlash from public

I’m interested in the science and what has happened but will take reason and science first.

Anyway worth checking motivation and source for any article even if it is exactly what you want to hear. Especially maybe, if it is.

Also happy with reason and science, which is why I was surprised we weren't in accord with the CDC and other world experts

This dithering and lack of organisation has put vulnerable children at risk.

Dithering over vaccinating the vulnerable children themselves when they were approved early on, yes. ‘Dithering’ over waiting to determine whether the risks outweigh the benefits for a second dose for healthy teens, no.