NHS Nightingale Harrogate closes

[pocketem]

Nightingale Harrogate, which was opened by Captain Tom Moore just last week, has now been closed due to a lack of patients. Staff that had been seconded to work there have been sent back to their usual workplaces and told that they will not be needed for at least a fortnight, and thereafter will be given at least 4 days notice if the hospital is to re-open. Capacity in the major ICUs in the region is still well over demand with around 20-25% of critical care beds empty, following the expansion of beds last month.

[ReceptacleForTheRespectable]

I'm glad we don't need it, and I'm also glad that preparations were made in case we did.

I'm no fan of our current government, but I do know that it's easy to say what capacity was needed with hindsight - far harder when you are walking into the unknown.

[rwalker]

These were always a contingancy on one has a crystal ball for how many beds would be needed just an educated guess.
Can't believe how stupid people are to complain they were set up no doubt they are the same people who would complain if the hadn't on hospitals swamped and unable to cope.

[Ginfordinner]

Well said Whycan't

[Mumlove5]

@Lily193 @pocketem

Maybe they should have made it more clear.

There has been such hysteria. I honestly think people A) didn’t hear correctly B) maybe heard it but fear took over because the media has done such a terrible job

[rosiethehen]

So, the health service is no longer treating regular patients and not taking people from care homes and leaving covid patients at home until they're gasping their last? Declining to treat and fobbing people off isn't exactly unknown.

[Humphriescushion]

I think they are needed though at least the hospitals should have more patients. When people say it is good they are not needed i cant see it like that. I believe they are needed and not enough are getting in, or are too late. There is also a problem with non covid patients probably as well.

[SchadenfreudePersonified]

I would like to see more people being admitted to hospital earlier so they can get medical care. Germany admitted patients earlier and along with a rigorous test and tracing system have had far fewer deaths

Agree - intervening at an earlier stage in the disease has much better results - hardly surprising.

[Abreadsandwich]

I think its been mentioned but surely "capacity" should include physical beds/equipment AND sufficient trained staff to attend or treat the patients there. I've always been a little bit confused by the creation of entire new hospitals with xxx number of beds without explaining how they will staff an entire new hospital without depleting staff levels at other hospitals.

[SlothMama]

I'd rather the nightingales never reach their capacity or even get used. I don't care if some people think it's a waste of money, it's better to be over prepared.

[ShootsFruitAndLeaves]

I don't think people fully understand what has happened with covid-19.

Italy was not badly affected. What was badly affected was the north-west and some neighbouring regions. Rome, or the South, for example had very little.

So 'Italy' was never overwhelmed.

The deaths in Lombardy or New York are essentially the worst-case scenario. We got close in London, but London has massive capacity, better infrastructure, more overflow possibilities than Lombardy.

In England & Wales there are three main hotspots, which are London, Manchester/Liverpool, and Birmingham Urban area. There are also warm spots in the Lake District, Middlesbrough, Cardiff, Gosport and others.

The Nightingale hospitals were built to deliver services to densely populated urban areas. Nightingale Harrogate is in N Yorks but is catering to Leeds.

The others are Manchester, Glasgow, Birmingham and London.

Each the largest urban areas in Britain.

The attached map shows excess deaths in hospital in the week to April 10 for the north of England. It's both colour-coded and has numbers. Red means the local hospitals may be overwhelmed.

The numbers are the actual death figures. Second map shows London. Here there is widespread red implying a serious regional pandemic.

The Nightingale hospitals are indicated where there is widespread red indicating hospitals being overwhelmed with deaths over a larger region, hence implying some value in a regional super-centre.

In the Leeds-Harrogate area Harrogate is yellow showing deaths double usual levels (for Harrogate residents, not Harrogate hospitals), but this is only 14 extra deaths in the week, while Leeds has 19 extra deaths which is only 32% above usual levels.

So the pandemic never reaches severe levels in Yorkshire.

Essentially what you have in London is close to the worst case scenario, but probably London was helped by its younger population. The government fucked up by shutting down a week or two late, so what you see is hundreds of extra hospital deaths in London, which would have been avoided by an earlier shutdown.

The Nightingale hospitals are not fuck-ups. They are an attempt at emergency capacity planning in case for example West Yorkshire had become as bad as London, in which case there was likely to be limited excess capacity. This scenario was possible since we didn't know the extent of spread at the point they were commissioned.

Now that there is no possible mathematical way for the virus to overwhelm health capacity in the Leeds urban area providing we either keep in lockdown or keep testing lots of people at random across the country, it makes sense to close it.

The only fuck-up here was the late lockdown, which cost thousands of lives. Not building fucking hospitals in a pandemic! That's just sensible.

[Humphriescushion]

I dont think it is a waste of money, i think it is a waste not to use them. I dont believe they are not needed - at least the capacity in hospitals. And nightingales possibly for those going back to care homes.

[ChasingRainbows19]

Surely it's a good thing they aren't needed. It doesnt mean they'll never be used. This is a longer term strategy surely?
The nightingales may be needed as the nhs opens hospitals back up to appointments, surgery and the usual. Also if we have a surge in autumn/winter along with flu and other respiratory illness the NHS could be overwhelmed. The NHS will absolutely need those nightingale beds.

[Humphriescushion]

Below is a quote from the Times (probably behind a paywall so i have pasted)

"Take more coronavirus patients to hospital, paramedics told
A change in London’s NHS guidance has added to fears patients have been taken to hospital too late to save their lives"

I think there is an article in the daily mail regarding this as well, but i am too scared to link it.

This seems to back up my fear, that more should have been in hosptial at an earlier stage.I am in noway blaming paramedics for this.

[iseeu]

There is still the possibility of a second wave. Having potential capacity is a good thing. The possibility of a second wave becomes more likely if more people refusing to social distance because they believe we all need to get it at some point, and that thinking has dominated some threads on MN.

[Xenia]

yes, Humphries I saw that yesterday and posted a link too. Ambulances have been the real stumbling block to people having NHS care. I told my sons in week 1 of lockdown if I got this thing badly drive me to A&E within 15 minutes, don't wait 9 hours to call an ambulance which probably would not come or if it came would turn me away.

Shooots, I agree. My area of London is just about hardest hit and our local hospital was full etc as we are older out here than inner London and inner London has lots of different hospitals. I probably live in the worst place in the country to get covid 19 other than I suppose somewhere with no hospitals at all that is very rural.

[JellyfishandShells]

Well, it’s good news that a contingency has not had to be used, surely ? Everyone, all around the world, is learning on the hoof about the behaviour of this virus. The opprobrium if we had not prepared, extraordinarily quickly, facilities which then did turn out to be needed. There are plenty of pictures of the field hospitals that Italy had to resort to and New York.

[Kazzyhoward]

There is still the possibility of a second wave.

More of a certainty than possibility. Covid hasn't gone away. When restrictions are lifted, it will spread again, especially when people go back to their dirty ways of not washing hands, spitting, not respecting personal space, hugging & hand shaking. Until there's a vaccine, it'll be wave after wave, causing lockdown after lockdown.

[Humphriescushion]

No to me it is not good news that a contingency or capacity was not used when the death rate is so high compared to admissions.

[MarshaBradyo]

Not bad news at all. They may well be needed in time anyway.

[MarshaBradyo]

Actually Humphries yes agree if it’s due too severe triage, possibly in London. Not sure if the same for Harrogate.

[stuckindoors77]

More of a certainty than possibility. Covid hasn't gone away. When restrictions are lifted, it will spread again, especially when people go back to their dirty ways of not washing hands, spitting, not respecting personal space, hugging & hand shaking. Until there's a vaccine, it'll be wave after wave, causing lockdown after lockdown

This is why I'm on Mumsnet, I just love the sunny optimism

[Humphriescushion]

Yes probably marsha regional variations. It is the total no.s in hospital and fhe graphs showing the declining admissions that astound me.

[NoMorePoliticsPlease]

It is closed, for now,
We still may have a second wave

[SouthWestmom]

They are talking about it now - the 8th of 10 opened today. So what are they for? Why open one now if one just closed? Are they to be covid only and they just haven't spelt that out?

[BikeRunSki]

@pocketem, that graph is excellent. I work in flood risk management. I’m keeping it for future briefings when I need to justify mitigation works.