IF it's true... how will pubs survive this?

[NotKeenOnSwede]

If they remain closed for the entire year how on earth will they not fold altogether? Granted when they do eventually open they'll be rammed with punters (if allowed to be) but I really feel for people who are in this business. If cafes start to open surely they should open pubs too, with restrictions? No more than two people standing at the bar or groups of 3 only etc...

[LilacTree1]

Flax “ Why does a tribute night or sports event have to necessarily be "packed" anyway?”

To make money?

As I say, the alternative is charge more but the pubs in my part of London won’t survive that.

I’m a bit confused that you don’t seem to be linking business to profit.

[Rashboy]

To say that this spells the end of pubs is a huge blow for so many people and I think that many commenting here are not regular pub goers and so don’t understand. A pub can be the heart of a small village and can be an outlet for lots of people. Sitting at a bar chatting or playing a game of pool may be the only social interaction people get. In a certain type of pub anyone can strike up a conversation and join in the banter.
You might see a pub as a place you go on a sunny day with your friends to hang out in a beer garden or a place you go for a family meal. So you can replace your outing with a bbq at home or a meal in a cafe. But for many pubs you are not their target market and you don’t keep them afloat. It’s the over 50 male who goes in on a Tuesday night in November is the guy who keeps their bills paid. And the future of this pandemic sees so many of these pubs closing.

[Flaxmeadow]

To make money?

So find another way pub way to make money

As I say, the alternative is charge more but the pubs in my part of London won’t survive that.

Sorry about that but if they cannot provide a service people want then they go under

I’m a bit confused that you don’t seem to be linking business to profit.

People will want an environment they feel safe and comfortable with, in a post pandemic world. A business that can provide that service will survive.

It's a deal between the client and the provider. Some places will adapt and provide it, some won't because they are behind the trend

Pubs have survived for a thousand years or more. Pubs or inns of old were actually more like the pubs now that provide meals and a sit down service. Something I think we will see more of in the future. A "small beer" and a slice of bread and cheese at a reasonable price. Maybe we will go back to that. Those businesses survived before and theres no reason why they couldn't in the future

[Inkpaperstars]

There was a representative of landlords and pub industry on tv and to my surprise he was asking, it seemed, that it be mandated pubs remain closed all year even if other businesses remain open. I think the reasoning was that because social distancing is so hard in pubs people would not return in sufficient numbers to keep them going, so it would be better to be forced to close with some govt support.

[Bowerbird5]

The tenants of our village pub came to pack up and remove what is theirs today. They have made a great place to dine, quiz nights, singers etc turned what was a mediocre pub that had been closed at various times into a thriving place that people drove miles to celebrate in. Such a shame.
My sons work in hospitality.

[LucaFritz]

That is the same for every other business. A friend’s brother is a dentist and had to close - he still has to pay rent. As do shops that have closed. And garden centres (along with staff to try and keep their stock from perishing). And hairdressers. And staff who have been made redundant.
Not really as Pub rents are based entirely on what the pubs outgoings are then on top of that theres standard rent for the accommodation above if they are live in's least that's what it was like at the pubs i worked for and I've worked for both family run little one's and the big corps like wetherspoon etc. Surely its also in the breweries interest to suspend running rent's and cut the accommodation rents to ensure the pubs can reopen and make profit when the time comes im not sure the landlord's can Furlough themselves or claim benefits either

[BatShite]

The main pubs here make money from tribute nights, sports etc when they’re packed.

How it worked in FILs pub say..10 years or so back was..the old men who were in all day nursing a few pints were the ones who basically paid the rent and for stock. Weekend karaokes/sport or whatever were the profit. If weekends were shite, FIL made nothing really.

Used to be about 15 or so older men in all day everyday. Smoking ban knocked that down to about 4/5 a day. Year or so later, FIL gave bar up as smoking ban had utterly killed his business and he was running at a loss. I know it didn't go like that for all though, I expect some might have even picked up. We possibly live in an area with more than usual smokers or something..

But I expect a fair few traditional pubs run pretty much like that..regulars pay bills, wekeenders pay profits..or something similar to that. Many will struggle and yes, I can see loads closing alltogether. Pubs that do food will probably be ok though, as theres a lot more profit in food

[Kljnmw3459]

I just don't see any way that the lockdown in its current state will continue much longer. Pubs will be open by summer, maybe with some attempt at limiting numbers and social distancing.

[Jux]

DH is musician and the bulk of his income is from pub and club gigs. Usually, by April, he would have gigs booked - maybe 3 -4 week - up until October, sometimes beyond.

All his gigs were cancelled in February/March. He has no income and no prospect of any until pubs and clubs are re-opened.

We don't qualify for the self-employed money as we don't fit into the parameters set; we can't get UC because we rent out our basement so they think we own another property. We therefore shall have to live on 600 quid a month for the foreseeable.

It's going to be hard until the pubs open again.

[Buyitinbamboo]

I don't see how it's going to work. In the pubs I know, cutting numbers enough to maintain social distancing would mean no profit. Not social distancing (say for arguments sake) would mean a high percentage being too scared to go in so no profit.

I have family members that own a pub . 2 households,5 children in total relying on that income. Its quite a scary thought.

Perhaps enough pubs will go under that the brewery dramatically lowers their costs so people can stay afloat. I'm not sure how likely that it.

[Letsdrinkgin]

Just ban the high risk groups (over 50s men, no great loss) and the rest of us can crack on

Why aren’t you including women in that?

[DeathByBoredom]

Men are way higher risk of death from covid

Also, they are annoyingly loud in pubs

[DeathByBoredom]

Death rate double overall, the gap narrows with the very elderly though

No stats on levels of annoyingness, that's personal preference

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52197594

[Pelleas]

I predict they will reopen in about six weeks' time, but with social distancing measures at lease nominally enforced.

The lockdown cannot be prolonged at this level indefinitely.

For one thing, people will rebel and it's better that it should be lifted in a controlled way than that people should just start drifting out and about of their own accord.

Secondly, another wave of cases is inevitable and it's better that this should happen over summer when they won't be competing for hospital beds with seasonal respiratory infections.

Thirdly, the government will be looking to take damage limitation measures as soon as it can to help our devastated economy.

So my estimate is six weeks or at the outside, two months for the reopening of pubs and restaurants.

[Letsdrinkgin]

Also, they are annoyingly loud in pubs

Bloody Hell. Have you never heard a group of women in a pub? Way louder

[BuddleiaTime]

So my estimate is six weeks or at the outside, two months for the reopening of pubs and restaurants.

So wrong. Just won't happen.

[Unworthie]

@Flaxmeadow

Yes they'll have to adapt and come up with ways to make money, but with social distancing in place, that's going to present a couple of issues that aren't easily solved.

Staffing - as I've said before it's going to be nigh on impossible to social distance behind a bar, or in a kitchen, in pot wash area etc. So there's going to have to be less staff. People are going to have to adjust their expectations of service time. Not only is it going to take longer to get a drink and a meal because it'll be table service, there won't be two people behind the bar. Maybe one making the drinks and one taking them to the tables. People aren't very good at adjusting expectations, and they're going to expect the same service they got before, without exception. Look at how people are behaving over queuing for supermarkets, when things have run out etc, add alcohol to that and it's going to magnify.

Trying to ensure people under the influence social distance is just....... Not going to work. Like I said before people have enough trouble with licensing laws being enforced by bar staff. Some are not going to listen, others are going to get upset at that and the staff are going to expected to referee and sort it out, which isn't going to happen because no one listens anyway.

And that's assuming that places can get enough people through the doors under social distancing, and they spend enough money to at least break even.

It's going to take a massive change in customers behavior for it to work, that's going to be the biggest challenge.

[B1rdbra1n]

Pubs and restaurants will be incompatible with the post covid world, people will feel nervous in enclosed crowded spaces unless they have a face mask on
face masks are incompatible with eating and drinking

[Flaxmeadow]

Staffing - as I've said before it's going to be nigh on impossible to social distance behind a bar, or in a kitchen, in pot wash area etc. So there's going to have to be less staff. People are going to have to adjust their expectations of service time. Not only is it going to take longer to get a drink and a meal because it'll be table service, there won't be two people behind the bar. Maybe one making the drinks and one taking them to the tables. People aren't very good at adjusting expectations, and they're going to expect the same service they got before, without exception. Look at how people are behaving over queuing for supermarkets, when things have run out etc, add alcohol to that and it's going to magnify.

But table service is already common on the continent. Whenever I've been in Greece we were always served at the table. I think pubs have changed in the last 10 or 20 years here anyway. The more successful pubs are the ones that offer a reasonably priced family meal.

In the countryside we started to see them being multi functional. Pubs being more like a corner shop during the day. Offering groceries and so on or even post office facilities. Which I think is a great idea

Trying to ensure people under the influence social distance is just....... Not going to work. Like I said before people have enough trouble with licensing laws being enforced by bar staff. Some are not going to listen, others are going to get upset at that and the staff are going to expected to referee and sort it out, which isn't going to happen because no one listens anyway.

This is more a problem with the younger crowd. But my children do not go to the pubs and clubs as much as I did at their age. We did it from Thursday right through to Sunday and I can remember pubs being packed out on a Friday afternoon when everyone recieved their weekly wage packet. Those were the days!

But my own children and their friends, while still pubbing it and clubbing sometimes, seem to do other recreational things as well. Meals out, the cinema or bowling etc . They also don't seem to consume the vast amounts of alcohol we used to either. I can remember many times waking up on a Saturday morning with a hangover and then we all went straight to the pub at 11am. Or having a massive hangover at work on a Monday morning but I dont think young people tend to do this as much now.

And that's assuming that places can get enough people through the doors under social distancing, and they spend enough money to at least break even.

But as above I think the nature of pubs was changing anyway

It's going to take a massive change in customers behavior for it to work, that's going to be the biggest challenge.

I think people will want the change. They will want to social distance because they understand the importance of it. The pubs that will be successful in the future will adapt to the customer, as they have before the crisis. Pubs change, the inns of old were for travelers or passing trade and more like a Wetherspoons than what we think of as a local or town centre pub.

I dont think pubs will go away anytime soon but adapt as they always have throughout history

[Truffleshuff]

Quite a lot here are doing takeaway meals, I can't imagine it's even helping them break even, but probably gives a tiny bit more hope
.

[okiedokieme]

They won't be able to survive, but politicians won't want them to remain closed. I expect that the first stage will be restaurants and pubs serving food, with a maximum number of customers based on number of seats (standing at the bar will be restricted to purchasing drinks or waiter service brought in). Drinking only bars/pubs and clubs etc could be much longer.

[tabulahrasa]

“I dont think pubs will go away anytime soon but adapt as they always have throughout history”

They’re not all going to vanish obviously...

But the changes you’re talking about take money and where’s that coming from?

A lot of pubs and restaurants aren’t high profit businesses, they don’t have loads of spare cash sitting about to refit kitchens or invest in technology.

[Flaxmeadow]

But the changes you’re talking about take money and where’s that coming from?

A lot of pubs and restaurants aren’t high profit businesses, they don’t have loads of spare cash sitting about to refit kitchens or invest in technology.

But some things will become cheaper for the pubs I think. For example if a pub has to become larger because the tables have to be at a certain distance from each other, then they will have to rent or buy larger premises. But I think larger premises will become a lot cheaper anyway, because there will a trend toward a lot more people working from home. There will be more empty buildings that were once used for office space and so rents or prices will go down.

People will always want to socialise. If the market is there then business will prosper again. Business might go bust but it can always start up again and lessons will be learnt from the past. It's always been that way.

Necessity is the mother of invention

[LilacTree1]

Flax, I think we’re talking a bit cross purposes here

I’m saying it’s sad that small local pubs will go under, you’re saying “survival of the fittest”.

Which is true, but my point is, it’s a shame, that’s all. I think other posters might be thinking the same as I am.

Funny where survival of the fittest is and isn’t okay....

[DorsetCamping]

I've been furloughed from my bar job and I can't see pubs etc reopening for a long time.

Even as things became really serious and we were getting closer to lockdown so many people were like "fuck that, no ones gonna stop me from meeting my mates and having a drink". What little social distancing was in place at the start of a session soon went straight out the window after a few pints.

Can see cafes/coffee shops opening sooner but not pubs. Unfortunately booze isn't well known for getting people to stick to rules!