How long can we carry on like this for?

[Pseudosudocrem]

Anyone else starting to wonder just how long we can carry on like this before everything irrevocably falls apart?

How will we ever recover as a country?

That's unlikely. The markets and share indexes give every indication of confidence that economies will pick up when the immediate restrictions are lifted. There's plenty of money floating around out there; it's just experiencing a temporary stasis. That's no comfort to those of us who are struggling in the short-term, but the indications are that a crash on the scale of 1929 and its longstanding repercussions are not looking likely.

These things feel like 'forever' whilst they're happening; just like the sleepless nights phase when you have young kids. And this too shall pass. It's highly likely that in two years' time, when people look back on this, they'll see it as just a blip.

Yes of course it's a serious illness and proportionaly serious prevantative measures have been taken to avoid overwhelming our healthcare services. These are not designed to prevent people catching the virus; it's accepted as a certainty that many of us will, given time. But I get the distinct impression that some people are thriving on the drama.

And this too shall pass.

It's lives now v.s. lives later. Recessions kill - unemployment is linked to higher death rates. And the argument of "we can't overwhelm the NHS because then people won't be able to get cancer treatment/hip surgery" is moot, because they already can't get cancer treatment or hip surgery.

alloutoffucks I don’t really understand what you want the solution to be then 🤔

@NikeDeLaSwoosh can you explain to me why my loved ones will be dead anyway in 5 years?

Sure.

This is because, on average, your chances of dying of Covid 19, should you become infected, is roughly equal to your chance of dying in the next 12 months.

Very few people who are ‘saved’ from Covid 19 will be alive after a year. Even fewer will still be alive after 5 years.

Whatever the media might say to the contrary, the number of young and healthy people who die after contracting Covid 19 is incredibly small.

I think there will be some relaxing after the next 3 weeks, nothing major, I doubt schools will be back until September, but the cost of lockdown (not just monetary) is extremely high. I think there will be a tightening again in preparation for flu season so there will be a few months in the middle where some businesses are permitted to reopen. I really feel for those who are at the end of life and have no chance to say bye to loved ones, go to a restaurant etc for the final time, and are spending their final months confined to their homes.

"If you think having an elderly relative die is distressful you clearly haven't had to suffer the pain of a family member committing suicide."

@Stellamboscha what?! I've had both. I didn't suddenly become desensitised to the pain of losing an older relative though 

And I'm still waiting for @NikeDeLaSwoosh to tell me why my loved ones are going to be dead in 5 years. Seriously disturbed by that thinking....

"If you're vulnerable get paid to stay home. Everyone else goes out and back to normal."

The vulnerable group is almost 1 in 3 of the population (Europe figures, but ONS showed similar % for the UK). (Not sure what the percentage is for the workforce population though?)

I am very worried about the economic implications of this. I cried about it yesterday, and I'm someone who still has a job at the moment. I think it's going to be much worse than many are assuming. We need to maintain a lockdown until we can get some alternative preparations in place, like large scale testing and contact tracing, mask availability, more critical care bed capacity and other factors...at which point we must restimulate economic activity. But the task is so gargantuan and I'm not sure we're up to the task on a UK level or at a global level, though obviously some countries are managing because they have strong governance and healthcare systems. I expect that we are going to have to go back to work under less than perfect conditions with continued peaks though hopefully smaller than this one. An event like this could have wider destabilising effects that are hard to imagine and predict. For example, political events in the US are concerning. International relations are under strain. At this point, I feel that dominoes are falling and that we are somewhat deluding ourselves about the level of control we have over what might unfold. I'm finding lockdown brutal on a personal level which probably doesn't help make my outlook less gloomy. However, I don't think lockdown will continue past June under any circumstances because the balance of harm will clearly shift.

Agreed @BeijingBikini

I’d also argue that the virus kills based on the health characteristics of the patient. It disproportionately kills people who are elderly or already in poor health.

Recession, on the other hand disproportionately kills people who are poor, vulnerable and generally socially disadvantaged.

Obviously, it would be better for nobody to die prematurely, but I do at least think the virus kills in a fairer way.

So awful that this is what it’s come to though.

Ah, cross post.

That doesn't make any sense whatsoever.

"Very few people who are ‘saved’ from Covid 19 will be alive after a year. Even fewer will still be alive after 5 years"

Where are you reading that?! So Boris will be dead this time next year? And Idris Elba? Just to name two.

And you haven't explained why my loved ones who are currently shielding or observing social distancing (including myself) will be dead in 5 years if we were to carry on for a while longer

Without lockdown you reach capacity (about now) and everyone after that dies even if they only needed o2 so would have had a very good chance to survive. So imagine every one of the cases from now on not making it.
The only reason we are not over capacity is all those people died. Plus all those in care homes.

One article today was about nhs expecting family to deliver end of life care (as they dont want to risk sending in gps etc)!!!
So we can see where gov are heading with how high they will allow the next peak to get.

We are only in a similar situation to italy/spain/france not germany so we cant copy what others are doing.

I hope all those moaning about thr economy feel some guilt when reading about all the orphans this will create (which will of coirse cost more money). Plus all the working age people either dead or so damaged they cant work. Disability will skyrocket. There was someone who was healthy contracted it but left with damage and has to shield now.

Due to our high numbers of cases it isnt going to take a lot to start off again. It was only 4w originally and if only a small % are immune it wont be much helped by that.

I definitely dont think schools should generally reopen.
It is not the same as nhs
Lifesaving
In fact most likely to increase deaths (parebts/teachers/children).
Uses public transport so affecting bus drivers.
You are unlikely to get all kids wearing masks.

I fear that they and their beloved public services are in for a terrible shock

I fear those who detest paying tax are in for a worse one. No way will there be another period of austerity after this.

The plan is for most people to become infected. Lockdown is to slow the process down to manageable levels for the health hubs, that’s all.

Lockdown isn’t to prevent majority people becoming infected.

When lockdown is lifted, much more of us will become infected, and some will keep dying, the most vulnerable groups.

Then a vaccine will be provided firstly to the vulnerable groups, and by then the rest of us who won’t get the vaccine, will have herd immunity.

This is the basis of the scientific document the government is working on from John Hopkins university.

Lockdown will end
We will return to work and school
Social distance measures will not apply where it isn’t feasible
Most people will become infected and people will continue to die
A vaccine will be available to vulnerable groups later
Herd immunity will work as it has for previous pandemics
And the economy will recover, eventually. We recovered after the world wars eventually.

Stop watching the news too much , use common sense to deal with restrictions at present in your own life, and remember that past pandemics occurred, devastated things for a while, then everything went back to normal.

@Inkpaperstars No one who is in shielded group can make a choice not to go back to work unless the government supports that. And if their partners and kids have to go back to work and school, they will catch the virus anyway and many will die.

Yes, I was thinking about those who wanted to go back but I hadn't thought through the fuller picture. It's very worrying, I hope they will be protected.

Nike “Lilac - it’s as if all critical thinking has been suspended for the duration.”

I think it was suspended a while ago!

*"Very few people who are ‘saved’ from Covid 19 will be alive after a year. Even fewer will still be alive after 5 years"

Where are you reading that?! So Boris will be dead this time next year? And Idris Elba? Just to name two.*

That's not what they said at all - re-read. The ones who WOULD have died from Covid-19, who we are shielding (so not Boris or Idris!) on average have the same chance of dying in the next 12 months as dying of Covid. I believe David Spiegelhalter calculated this.

The plan is for most people to become infected. Lockdown is to slow the process down to manageable levels for the health hubs, that’s all.

It's not a plan, it's an acknowledgement based on the fact that there is no vaccine and we won't be able to completely get rid of this.

I do think people need to understand the current strategy is to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed. Not for everyone to avoid catching it.

The next part of the strategy will be the young and healthy and non shielding people will get back to normal life and yes maybe be exposed to the virus....

Agreed, I phrased that badly.

What I meant to say is that, of the people who die from Covid 19, very few would have lived more than a year anyway.

The figures were given a good unpicking by Tim Hartford on More or Less. It’s still available on bbc podcast if you’d like to have a listen?

If the taxpayer is paying for all the vulnerable to stay at home 😱😱

The re-opening of shops has already started, its like lemmings, one moves they all start to follow. First KFC, now Pret and Burger King, today Ive seen selected B&Q's open so that means Wickes and Homebase will follow.

But those places never had to close in the first place. Restaurants and cafes have always been allowed to remain open so long as they can provide takeaway or delivery services, which all of the above can.

The same with DIY stores. Our local independent shops never closed in the first place and have remained open the entire time.

They chose to close, but they were never required to.

X post @BeijingBikini but yes that was exactly what I meant to say.

The plan cannot be ...let people get the virus just at a rate low enough to avoid overwhelming the NHS because you are talking about taking over 10 years to see the back of it. There is no quick hit

So the plan must surely be keep it at a low enough rate until we get a reliable treatment or vaccine

Arrggh would have died

I’ll get there eventually

Then a vaccine will be provided firstly to the vulnerable groups, and by then the rest of us who won’t get the vaccine, will have herd immunity.

People don't get herd immunity. Populations do.
The aim of vaccines is that enough people become immune so that those who aren't are protected by the herd immunity in the population.
It means that the whole population is immune to the spread, although occasional cases may show up.
Individual people who weren't vaccinated or didn't develop antibodies to the disease are still at risk.

It's still not known if we can become immune to coronavirus, although sera from recovered people seems to have helped some patients.