I don't believe that COVID only arrived in the Uk in February

[GlitterToast]

I remember in February (I think) when the apparent first case of corona came to the UK, and there was much talk of a "superspreader".

However, I am convinced that if the virus has been evident in China since November, then it would have arrived here much sooner.

Personally, I was horrendously ill in late January. Everyone told me that I had a bad cold, but it was honestly the worst cold I have ever had in my entire life. I kept having hot and cold flushes and I had an awful cough. I couldn't get out of bed for a week. I'm not saying that I had corona, but I had something awful.

[noblegiraffe]

If it was as widespread in Jan as people seem to think, why is it only now that they’re building massive new hospitals and frantically making ventilators?

[DustyMaiden]

@cinammonbuns. Can you read?
My DF did not have a cold, he was at deaths door, on a ventilator with an unidentified virus. The symptoms of this virus are the same as Coronavirus.
When considering the possibility I remembered that we had spent a considerable time talking and taking photos with a Chinese family.

Thank you for your kind words.

[Oliversmumsarmy]

Probably because at the time it was a new respiratory illness and as China kept everything quiet no one knew exactly what they were dealing with.

Even if it started in mid November in Wuhan then I would be very surprised it took as long as it did to reach the UK or anywhere else.

There was a map of the globe last night showing, just by tracking people’s phones how far people go across the world from New York and those that were in Italy in just 1 week.

I can’t see China being any different

[HerewardTheWoke]

I think someone said at one of the press conferences that the early testing and contact tracing probably only picked up a third of imported cases. So given the infectiousness it seems extremely likely that community transmission was well established by February, possibly January too.

[itsgettingweird]

If we look at the things we've been told about R0 etc we can see just because it was here (or not) doesn't mean there would have been a mass outbreak.

For a start people Being in hospital with respiratory virus in Jan/Feb is pretty standard.
Numbers fluctuate massively year on year so an increase is t always noted as a health concern.

The spread would have been less because people are less active within a community over jan and early Feb.
The bigger outdoor events start into spring.

There is also less mixing in bags and restaurants in January because of less money.

We know the time from infection to death is approx 25-30 days.

First official deaths were recorded beginning of March and so were from infections contracted beginning of Feb.

We know about 1% of infections cause death. So there were at least 100 cases beginning of February and I would suspect more due to the numbers of deaths recorded with respiratory symptoms not having been tested.

But going back to the R0.

If there were 100's of widespread cases in January then it would take time for it to spread outwards into the community.
We know people were only given the information about coming from Wuhan.
So many cases were isolated whilst others spread through the community quietly.

There is no way this suddenly appeared in March when the pandemic was announced and thousands of Brits caught it overnight.

[GaaaaarlicBread]

I had it in January , so it definitely was here way before feb

[noblegiraffe]

You tested positive in January?

[EnthusiasmIsDisturbed]

We have found the UK Superspreader

Of course they would be a MN poster

Adds the the list of all the scientific experts on here too

[AgentCooper]

I don’t know. Generally I’d say nah, listen to the science.

But. I was very unwell in December and it truly wasn’t like anything I’d had before. My body was in terrible pain and I had a horrible dry cough. No runny nose at all. If I get throat problems it’s usually my tonsils but since I quit smoking a few years ago I’ve had no issues in that area. I felt like I genuinely could not get off the couch and looking after my 2 year old felt impossible at times. It passed after about a fortnight but DH had it too.

The only reason it gives me pause is that I work at a university with a vast international student population and I use the gym there. Most likely just a virus I hadn’t had before but it made me think.

[Leostar]

Who knows? I was also ill just after xmas.

Could it be an initial strain of Covid that wasn't as virulent/dangerous which mutated to this hell from Jan onwards?

[GaaaaarlicBread]

@noblegiraffe I was admitted to hospital in jan very very poorly , and at the time they weren’t testing but they’ve looked back at my bloods and have said they’re almost certain I had it . I’m awaiting a test to see if I’ve had it .

[lucymaudmonty]

I'm convinced I had it in Feb too.

I had a sore throat, high temp, dry cough, tight chest, pain in breastbone, totally wiped out for 2-3 weeks. I'm never off work and I had 6 days off in total and two weekends totally written off.

For me the sore throat was the worst part. I saw a nurse practitioner and she said because of the fever she thought I had a bacterial throat infection and I was given antibiotics, ended up having 2 lots of them for 15 days.....Cos they didn't really work...

The funny thing was she said she couldn't see any white spots on my throat which is the obvious sign of a bacterial infection. Also I had my tonsils removed when I was 8- never had any thing like that in the 28 yrs since! But I have heard some people who have died of it who thought they had severe tonsillitis.

My throat still isn't quite the same since.....weird sensation when I swallow, which drs have said could have been oral thrush but swabbed negative, or anxiety. gP has said in hindsight they think it was viral.

I was in Edinburgh for Chinese New Year which would have been a risk factor.

[noblegiraffe]

GaaaaarlicBread That’s really interesting. When are you expecting to be tested (are you on some sort of list?). You’ll have to come back and update this thread either way!

[GaaaaarlicBread]

@noblegiraffe no idea sadly ! But because I’m staff at the hospital they are testing us one by one , but I’m currently off as high risk pregnancy anyway! I am intrigued as to whether I did have it or not because I tell you what, I’ve never felt so poorly in my whole life !

[rosy71]

I suppose its entirely possible it was here a little bit earlier than we know of but surely if it was widespread, people would have being going to hospital with it in large numbers. I thought it was spotted in Wuhan because of the number of cases and the pneumonia it causes is somehow different to normal pneumonia so this made it stand out as something new and different.

There was definitely something around in December because ds1 was ill with a temp and cough which then caused an inner ear infection. We then all had bad colds in January. Just normal for winter though really.

Illnesses are often not given a name. I had a dreadful flu type virus about 6 years ago. The doctors said it was exactly that, a flu type virus, nothing specific.

[QueenofSwearing]

I never said a sudden surge of people @EnthusiasmIsDisturbed I said that it would have been the beginnings of the virus potentially so therefore less people. I'm done arguing with you. Have a good evening.

[DrMadelineMaxwell]

People who think they had it in the winter this year, most likely had a normal seasonal flu.

If you picked up early reports of this, when it first hit the news, it was easy to track it's progress as it spread from Wuhan. It made very interesting reading, if a scary prospect.

I had the worst chest infection I've had in a long tie this year, with a temperature and difficulty breathing. I still don't think it could possibly have been CV.

[Oliversmumsarmy]

I have had flu and it never involved conjunctivitis, losing my sense of taste and smell and left me unable to walk more than a few metres without getting out of breath and exhausted for weeks after

[AmIAStone]

We’ve a family member who travels to Asia once a month, end of January they came back and had symptoms and were told not allowed a test as they couldn’t possibly have it.

[Russellbrandshair]

I think there has been published evidence that covid has been in uk for much longer- there were much higher numbers of unexplained pneumonia etc

[FirewomanSamantha]

Late November 2019 - a limited number of people report that they suffered from a virus with symptoms similar to those described for COVID-19.

December 2019 - in the first half of the month there was a spike in cases of an unknown virus in a number of primary schools, acknowledged by PHE; this appeared to recede later in the month after schools broke up and there was less mixing between people over the Christmas period.

January 2020 - reported cases of a virus with similar symptoms rose slightly but not significantly due to people socialising in limited amounts, as is usually the case in January.

February 2020 - high winds/storms for most of the month, people advised not to travel unless absolutely necessary for much of the month; mass closures of train lines for at least the first few weekends of the month. Limited rise in cases, some possibly still asymptomatic.

March 2020 - the weather improves, people start to socIalise and mix more, the number of cases rises rapidly.

I know that this makes me sound like a conspiracy theorist but normally I really am not. I have a scientific background and believe in nothing until it is proven, so will continue to be as cautious as I can but the more that I read around it, the more that it makes me think.

[Ohdeariedear]

I am convinced I had it in Feb. I was starting to think I had glandular fever again, as that’s the only other time I’ve felt so ill. I was counting the minutes between painkillers, had the strangest cough, felt a bit better after a week, then it came back with a vengeance, high temp, more strange dry cough. Went on for about 3 weeks. Everyone in the house had a version of it - kids bounced through it in a few days but DH and I had lingering symptoms for weeks.

[Ohdeariedear]

Oh, and one of the out of hours doc that I saw said he’d seen quite a lot of people the same and it was taking 2-3 weeks to run it’s course.

[TheSheepofWallSt]

It’s funny isn’t it... my DS’s key worker at nursery is a young, very fit guy in his 30s. He got some kind of pneumonia at Christmas. I thought it was strange at the time- he was able to work etc. by the time the kids went back but the symptoms lingered for weeks.

[Oliversmumsarmy]

I don’t think it is a conspiracy theory to think that Covid was here earlier.

If they are saying that it originated in November in China then I would wonder why it wasn’t here earlier.