I don't believe that COVID only arrived in the Uk in February

[GlitterToast]

I remember in February (I think) when the apparent first case of corona came to the UK, and there was much talk of a "superspreader".

However, I am convinced that if the virus has been evident in China since November, then it would have arrived here much sooner.

Personally, I was horrendously ill in late January. Everyone told me that I had a bad cold, but it was honestly the worst cold I have ever had in my entire life. I kept having hot and cold flushes and I had an awful cough. I couldn't get out of bed for a week. I'm not saying that I had corona, but I had something awful.

[GlitterToast]

I'm not saying that I'm 100% certain that I had it. As many have pionted out, I probably didn't.

However, if the virus is as infectious as many are claiming, then how did it take so long to get here in the first place? China first discovered it in November, so I presume it had been around for a few weeks before then? October at the earliest? When you consider how much travel has come and gone from Wuhan since then, the stats would suggest that it came to the Uk much earlier?

[itsgettingweird]

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-patient-zero-symptoms-austria-ski-resort-daren-bland-ischgl-a9427811.html

It is thought possible it did come earlier. That's if this was covid 19 which they don't know.
I couldn't find the other media report I saw a few weeks ago that said locally many more caught this and there was a higher than usual absense from schools after this period.

[DGRossetti]

However, if the virus is as infectious as many are claiming, then how did it take so long to get here in the first place?

I think it's fair to say we know less about viruses than we'd like to. There are many many questions as yet unanswered in the whole subject, and contagiousness and effects of infection are probably at the top of the list. And that's before you remember this virus was originally christened novel coronavirus as it was previously unknown anyway.

[browzingss]

the stats would suggest that it came to the Uk much earlier?

What stats?

We have seen the course of the virus replicated in many countries at this point, eg Spain and Italy. It is very contagious. The virus doesn’t discriminate, more people would have died had the virus been present earlier. We would have already hit peak surely, particularly as no quarantine control measures were in place?

More medical staff would have contracted it and died due to the high viral load, they wouldn’t necessarily have been in full ppe back in October/November if they were unknowingly treating covid patients. Surely more vulnerable hospitalised patients would have contracted it too? Because potential covid patients wouldn’t have been separated from other patients in 2019.

China didn’t immediately undertake measures to control the outbreak in their country, it started off as a small cluster which then spiralled into more of their population, Domino effect. Hence why it wasn’t instantly present in other countries.

[FirewomanSamantha]

It has been reported that there are different strains circulating, so I wonder if some strains are less infectious and people who think they’ve had it have but not the B strain that is currently predominant in the UK and Europe. Although whether that would provide immunity to them now would be questionable, so they would be unwise to abandon protective measures.

I had something last November/December with symptoms that sound identical, just walking upstairs left me breathless with a pain in my chest. for a number of weeks. I am asthmatic, and oral steroids and antibiotics did nothing for it - even now I still have a wheezy patch in my chest that I can’t seem to get rid of. I had had the flu jab, although I know that there can be different strains of flu circulating, so it’s not always effective. Whatever I had also went around our school, with over 100 children off with similar symptoms on a single day. I would therefore be curious to have an antibody test if they become widely available but am still adhering closely to government guidance, given my asthma and that whatever I had seems to have had a lasting effect.

Out of interest, I have been googling viruses from last December and came across the following, where I thought that the comment regarding PHE and the name of a similar sounding virus is a bit odd: www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/vomiting-bug-outbreak-closes-primary-21016140.amp

[Ariela]

We will only find out once the antibody test is working and freely available.

[FirewomanSamantha]

NB - I know that link refers to sickness and diarrhoea, as well as flu-like symptoms, but they are also being discussed as Covid-19 symptoms.

[mackers1]

I know someone who went to Thailand in mid December and was knocked out for the duration of the holiday with a virus with breathing difficulties, the whole shebang. I am certain it's been in the Country since before January and a lot more of us have had it without knowing, But, without testing, we won't know.

[Mascarponeandwine]

I agree with @FOJN and @Glittertoast. If it started in Wuhan in November, and there is one flight a day Wuhan-Heathrow, then how was such an infectious virus NOT here?

There were probably cases of pneumonia in December and early January, not identified as anything too unusual. Why? Because no one was looking for Covid. No one joined the dots as no one knew they were looking for a new novel virus until at least mid January. Cases would’ve been put down to pneumonia from seasonal flu or other winter viruses.

[Delatron]

@itsgettingweird Yes I remember the article. Lots of local people affected with a similar virus and kids off school. It just might be that is where it started in the U.K.Mid Jan wouldn’t be too unlikely I don’t think.

I always found it strange that if Brighton guy was the first then why wasn’t Brighton a hotspot?

I think it was spreading a bit through the community from mid Jan. Then after the Feb half term it exploded following ski trips back from Italy (with no quarantine!).

[HolyBumoley]

Completely agree, OP.

I had a sudden-onset horrible dry cough in January. It went on for about a week (no sleep because I was coughing my lungs out, only I wasn't, because it was completely unproductive). No other symptoms at all. It resolved itself within a week (unusual for me, as coughs normally go on for months in my case). DD (the only one of my DC still at home) had most four days off school at more or less the same time with a cough and high temperature. I only ever let them off school if they have a temperature or D&V, so she was pretty unwell.

[user1471439240]

Porton Down are running extremely accurate blood testing to detect if a person has had the virus and recovered, the antigen test. These are the best labs in the country.
It is randomised across the country, but limited to the testing throughput. I recall a few thousand tests per day. This was announced by Whitty or Valance in recent days.
I hope the capacity can be ramped up as this is the real indicator of the spread. Testing for C19 with the intra nasal swab test is of use to determine positive at the time of test, this is the antigen test. It is of no use whatsoever to determine if a person has had the virus and has recovered.
The antibody test is the game changer here, unfortunately the current rapid tests are not at all accurate. Fortunately Britain has some of the world’s best scientists and research establishments, we will get this developed pretty soon.

[PomBearsyummy]

"If it was here earlier wouldn’t we have had lots of deaths much earlier"

Possibly not, it would have been the very start of the transmission and exponential growth would have been in the earliest stages.

[FirewomanSamantha]

I feel like we’re not really being told the whole story at all. It makes me feel like a conspiracy theorist when in reality, I am usually the complete opposite!

[leckford]

My friends and I are convinced we had it in December, it was not a ‘bad cold’ I had it for 2 months. We got it from an Italian who worked for my friends and went home to North Italy at Christmas. The virus was brought in by Chinese returning from the festival. Google ‘Chinese sweatshops in Italy’ you will be surprised. I was

[LynetteScavo]

Well, there is another virus with exactly the same symptoms, from the coughing to the temp and the 10 day relapse and the right chest. I know this because DS1 had it over Christmas/New Year.

Obviously he's presuming he hasn't had it. I would happily pay for a test to find out if he has.

[Porcupineinwaiting]

Yeah it's been here since Nov. It's just people didnt start dying in large numbers til now.

[cinammonbuns]

J@LynetteScavo yes it is called the common flu. It’s been around for centuries.

[cinammonbuns]

@LynetteScavo

[Porcupineinwaiting]

@LynetteScavo exactly the same symptoms? And what are those exactly?

[PigletJohn]

I had a really bad cough over Christmas and thereafter

But

None of the people I closely mixed with got it, and there was not an outbreak of pneumonia deaths. I was with a person in very poor health who would probably have pegged out if infected.

So it was a flu-like bug, but not CV.

If you had it for two months and kept coughing on people, how many of them ended up in hospital, and how many died? If none, unlikely to be CV.

[DGRossetti]

If you had it for two months

What did the Dr. say ?

[cinammonbuns]

@Mascarponeandwine one flight a day is nothing. The average capacity of one of those flights is about 300 seats whereas the population of Wuhan is 11 million.

So even in a month there will be 0.009% of the population on a flight from Wuhan to Heathrow (that doesn’t even take into account the people not from Wuhan on the plane who are just on it as a connective flight). So actually no, 1 flight a day from Heathrow to Wuhan does not mean it spread quickly to the UK.

[Therollockingrogue]

I had respiratory issues for a year after the aforementioned virus I picked up after a flight/trip in Jan 2018. My doctor first said it was a bad strain of cough which everyone locally had this year”. Three months later, very breathless, referred for x ray. 2 weeks later , another x ray.
The first doctor I saw (male) laughed at me when I told him I was having heart palpitations from being unable to breathe. He said ... “well I’m sure there’s nothing wrong with YOUR heart”. (Am fairly athletic under normal circs).
Just about recovered than came down with the EXACT same thing in December. Just like a reactivation. But the second time , milder , more manageable.
The fatigue meant I had to restructure my life to work around the three hour (yes!) naps I had to take daily. But the point is just to illustrate...
If you turn up to a gp with these symptoms ordinarily, they don’t do a check for odd diseases, or even refer for more investigations than an x ray.
I’d travelled all over and despite me raising the issue numerous times, no doctor wanted to do any more bloods than a full blood count.

[LynetteScavo]

@Porcupineinwaiting

Shall I tell you what COVID 19 symptoms are exactly?

You want to know the exact symptoms do you? Nah, I let you just Google in between being nasty.

What makes me think DS couldn't have had COVID 19 was that he travelled on three trains across the country while coughing his lungs up, and would have spread it far and wide, and also to us in the family home.

Which is why I say there is a virus like Coronavirus, but it isn't influenza. I'm pretty sure DS had a virus which was neither influenza nor Coronavirus.