I don't believe that COVID only arrived in the Uk in February

[GlitterToast]

I remember in February (I think) when the apparent first case of corona came to the UK, and there was much talk of a "superspreader".

However, I am convinced that if the virus has been evident in China since November, then it would have arrived here much sooner.

Personally, I was horrendously ill in late January. Everyone told me that I had a bad cold, but it was honestly the worst cold I have ever had in my entire life. I kept having hot and cold flushes and I had an awful cough. I couldn't get out of bed for a week. I'm not saying that I had corona, but I had something awful.

We have our doubts too. Someone we know died very unexpectedly in January with breathing difficulties, we had never known them to be ill, early sixties.

There was definitely another horrible coughing virus circulating at Christmas as DD had it and was ill for about ten days. However, I have suspected covid 19 now for three weeks and DD also ill with that too, with much the same chest pain and fever as well as a cough. Before she came down with suspected covid 19 now, I was asking myself whether she indeed had it in December and it was circulating earlier than we knew - but I think the answer is no.

I guess it would take on average three weeks from being infected to death. Then you’d need the amount of deaths to suddenly increase more than a normal flu season for people to notice. So it’s quite possible a hundred or so extra deaths in mid-late Jan wouldn’t have stood out? Just as community spread was getting going. I remember the first few official deaths were quite random, in hospital with no travel links. All spread out over the country. What does that tell us?

Then we get exponential growth and people being tested later on.

If you turn up to a gp with these symptoms ordinarily, they don’t do a check for odd diseases, or even refer for more investigations than an x ray.

Because 80% of cases either resolve themselves, or respond to the "keep fluids up etc etc" regime that is usual advice for 'flu type infections.

I guess it would take on average three weeks from being infected to death. Then you’d need the amount of deaths to suddenly increase more than a normal flu season for people to notice. So it’s quite possible a hundred or so extra deaths in mid-late Jan wouldn’t have stood out

Does the UK have a mechanism in place to spot a sudden spike in certain diseases rapidly ? Wasn't there some debate about whether C-19 should become a notifiable disease ?

There are reports of the possibility of different strains

But there are still a significant numbers of deaths and still highly contagious

It simply doesn’t make any sense that it was here in January as it is a highly contagious virus. This has been proved to us by how we have had the huge increase in hospital admissions

There would have been hotspots in the areas where people claim to have had it unless they totally isolated themselves and if travelling that is impossible

Deletron it was an interesting article wasn't it in hindsight if knowing what we know now. And also the fact we know it spread east and west along the south coast by further confirmed cases. Hampshire (about 60 miles from this mans residence and the village) 'topped the league tables' for the number of cases for a long period of time. The south east then had highest number of reported cases for a long time. Number of cases has now dropped below other areas but we saw it spread up through London and to the midlands. The data showed this. SE has high mortality rates compared to higher affected regions but using the information we have we would expect this as the first expected area and those areas who are now reporting more cases will start to see the same figures. Based on average of 20-30 days from contact to death.

There is no question though that a nasty respiratory virus with a cough was around from November. It's just whether that is the current strain of CV (I don't think it is), a variant strain of flu or another variant virus.

And I thought it was here in January anyway? Wasn't there some Chinese students who'd returned to York end of January? They weren't the first cases reported?

It simply doesn’t make any sense that it was here in January as it is a highly contagious virus. This has been proved to us by how we have had the huge increase in hospital admissions

Is it possible that it's contagiousness (for want of a better word) and/or virulence change in response to some environmental factor ? Since we're still learning about it. Could it be it infects people with little or no symptoms initially, and the goes loco when sufficient are infected to ensure transmission ?

I ask as a non-immunologist, so if those are stupid questions or ideas, it's all down to me

I have to be honest, logic tells me that no, there are plenty of other forms of corona virus that have been around for a long time and they were responsible for so many people being ill over Christmas etc.
However, I too had a 40 degree fever, breathlessness and terrible cough for about 4 weeks and had the paramedics out on New Years Day because my temp was rocketing, pulse sky high and couldn’t catch my breath.
My mum had pneumonia at the same time and both my son and husband suffered a milder version.
I have never felt so poorly as I did then.
Who knows. Perhaps it was here
and people were dying but it was considered flu instead? I don’t know.
I’d love to hear from someone who is qualified to know because it’s obviously crossing a lot of people’s minds.

It didn't arrive in February, the pandemic did.

Well super spreader Brighton man brought it back at the end of Jan so it was definitely here then!

There was an awful virus around in November though. I was ill for about 6 weeks no cough though.

I think the question here is whether the man from the Austrian ski place was actual patient zero.

DGR I don't think that's a stupid question. It already crossed my mind that Dec/Jan we had awful weather and storms and floods. Also people socialise less during the winter and over Xmas and NY tend to stay in family groups. There was already talk that the virus spreads most when temps are 5-11°c. So pre Xmas and post lockdown it should be lower if that science is correct.

A Chinese man who accidentally told the media that China found the first cases back in September has mysteriously disappeared. It's definitely possible that a few people had it earlier than feb in the U.K.

In September I was on holiday with DF we went to a zoo and chatted with lots more f Chinese people. DF later had a raging temperature and cough. He was taken to hospital and remained there for 8 days on oxygen. They did many tests but could not confirm which bug so gave broad spectrum antibiotics. Every detail fits Coronavirus.

I read thet most likely UK patient zero has been in UK in January, so it's true it has been here way before we were told, but no one knew up until then it was Coronavirus.

PHE should have been monitoring signals, maybe they were aware of it/what is was but thought that it could be controlled/herd immunity would build very gradually in the UK, and underestimated its severity. Also they may not have wanted to panic people. Was that why the government were so confident that their herd immunity strategy would work, and they carried on attending meetings, but then it started spreading too quickly and too many people started to die in the UK and across Europe, so they changed tactic? This is just my theory though and I appreciate that I could be completely wrong!

I had a bad flu-like illness before Covid arrived. It occurs to me that if I had contracted it later I would have confused it with Covid - the tiredness, the dry cough - and self-isolated. We need testing!

. It's definitely possible that a few people had it earlier than feb in the U.K

What would be the explanation for those few people not spreading it to their friends and family earlier than Feb? Why did it only start to spread when people brought it into the country from China and Italy. As a non virus expert it just doesn't make sense to me. Maybe it was something similar but less easy to catch and less deadly like a new strain of seasonal flu.

If the numbers of posters who think their children had it months ago were right the whole school population would have been decimated by now

@ Therollockingrogue
I had an awful virus last March .
It was a constant cough , fever , bad wheezing , very poor measure on peak flow and fatigue .
A year later and I have still have respiratory problems too. I still wheeze yet before this I have never wheezed in my life and I am 44.

My dr was very dismissive and just gave me a blue inhaler .

@ADarkandStormyKnight Yes, indeed we need testing!

I'm not convinced we know exactly who patient zero is in the UK. The possibility of someone with no symptoms entering the UK and spreading COVID 19, with no one being aware is highly likely. However, the likelyhood of everyone who suspects they had COVID 19 at the end of last year, actually having, it are slim.

@Notonthestairs I'm really interested in this:
My friend went skiing in Italy in January- came home suffering with flu. Originally advised it was a horrible virus and only much later diagnosed with Covid-19.
How were they diagnosed later? Once they were better?

Well it was circulating in Italy for quite a while before they discovered it?

@DGRossetti viruses don’t have brains they cannot strategise and decide to initially only give mild symptoms then end up giving sever ones later. That can only happen if it randomly mutates to become more fatal but so far I haven’t seen evidence to suggest that. It seems much more likely the reason there wasn’t many cases confirmed in the UK is because it only stared spreading in the UK in Late January.

@DustyMaiden seriously

We are convinced that our family have had in December/January

We can hazzard a guess on where we picked it up.

Dd for one of her jobs manages large events.

She managed an event where there were a lot of Chinese people who had flown over for the event and were on the plane on the way back at the end of the day

Dd got ill first and did cancel work for about a week. Most of the time she spent in bed.

Ds got it next. He too couldn’t get out of bed and was very ill

I then got it. Both Dd and I ended up at the emergency doctors because we couldn’t breathe

I developed a cough.

This wasn’t like any cough I have experienced before.

I honestly thought I would either have a heart attack or my lungs would explode

What makes me think it could have been Corona is the fact that Corona can follow a certain path where you get ill, then you recover then you go down with it and it is really bad.

I remember getting ill and after a couple of days getting better.

I was really surprised as that has never happened ever.
Once I get even a cold it takes me ages to shake it off.

Then I got ill again.

I read an article about the 8 symptoms that were the difference between flu and Covid 19 and I ticked all 8 of them.

Conjunctivitis, losing sense of smell and taste, etc