How long will social distancing last?

[Myfriendanxiety]

How long do we think it will be before children can see relatives again? My 3 year old is desperately missing his grandparents and cousin. I was hoping only around 6 weeks but I’ve seen news articles saying October!

Meanwhile, the government's chief epidemiologist Professor Neil Ferguson said the lockdown is likely to last until June, with social distancing measures in place for many months after that.

Coppied and pasted from the news this morning, so social distancing longer than six weeks unfortunately.

I reckon 6 Months. We won't hit peak for another 2 weeks or so, then we need to wait until we are absolutely certain that it's stopped spreading.

Otherwise it will all start up again......

Yes that’s what I’ve read. I was hoping it would relax to people being able to see close family members at some point sooner than a whole lift of measures.

I have no idea, but I am hoping the schools go back before September, or at least we are able to re-establish some sort of a social life for DS(6) before then. As an only child who is incredibly sociable (unlike me) he is already struggling with the isolation of it all.

@BasinHaircut yes me too. But if social distancing has to continue longer than September then schools surely can’t go back can they?

Seems silly me going to work (I teach) and DS going to nursery to then be unable to see our close family members who will also be working and using nurseries.

Do you think anyone will be going on summer holidays this year?

The idea is people do get it in small waves so as not to overwhelm the system (this is flattening the curve). So if things run as they hope then I think schools will go back after May half term and some relaxation on the social distancing.
But this only works if people stick by the rules now.

The daily mail (yes I know, not reputable source) is reporting this morning that BoJo has said lock down to continue until end of May, early June then social distancing to continue for many months more sadly

Yes I agree pip. I don’t think the plan is to keep us all in our houses for months on end until it’s all over, I think there will be some relaxation (to some extent) and then tighten it all up again when the next wave hits.

No myfriend I don’t think anyone is going on holiday this year. I don’t understand why anyone would want to risk it to be honest. The travel industry will not recover from this for a long time. I’m very glad I had 2 amazing holidays last year. Not something that we have ever done before and not likely to do again.

I’m also glad I bought a shit load of paint before we were locked down. I’m going to get some decorating done.

Until there is a vaccine we cannot stop this virus, only try and make the impact more manageable (I.e. less people, and specifically less high risk people, getting it at the same time) and there is no way we can all stay on lockdown until a vaccine is available as that’s probably a year away.

Gin, I don’t think the mail has reported Boris said that did they? They said Ferguson thought we would have to, but that if the restrictions were lifted we would need to continue social distancing.

I think you’ve misunderstood the article. And the mail has somewhat twisted it into scare mongering.

I'm happily delusional and looking forward to getting back to normal after Easter!!!!!

It's difficult but even if they relax, will you feel comfortable visiting? People are still going to die. :(

I'm happily delusional

Can't help but respect the honesty, hey whatever works. 😂

Just to throw a spanner in the works - a lot of this rests on a vaccine being created. What happens if a vaccine isn’t possible (eg. SARS and MERS don’t yet have vaccines and are both types of corona) that’s what concerns me 😳 though I’m sure with so many on the case it will be fine... but I can’t help wondering what if

@kljnmw3459, is that you, Donald??😷

If a vaccine cant be created presumably people will have to simply take their chances on the virus, as lockdown and social distancing cannot continue indefinitely.

Personally I expect it will relax after a month or two and we'll be able to see small groups of family and friends, but large gatherings will still be banned and schools will still be closed

Also tbf they stopped trying to find a vaccine for SARs and MERs as neither were particularly contagious

Didn't they stop creating the SARS vaccine, rather than them not being able to make one? That what I always thought

"If a vaccine cant be created presumably people will have to simply take their chances on the virus, as lockdown and social distancing cannot continue indefinitely."

Yes this is what I was thinking about.

I have asthma, although not on the list to isolate for 3 months, but am still terrified of getting it.

But surely the "at risk" can't isolate until say 3months after the last recorded case.

It’s possible - and I mean potentially some of the research might still be of use even if they didn’t manage to make one, but even so does make you wonder (and I’m really not saying that I don’t think there will be a vaccine, just a “what if?”)

What happens if a vaccine isn’t possible

Then we get back to our normal lives & people will carry on catching it & most will be okay & some will die. Just like all the of other things that can kill people.

Even if they do develop a vaccine it'll be two years plus until it is in widespread use - it is unacceptable to suggest that restrictions will continue for that long. Either the NHS uses this time to build capacity or it doesn't - either way people will continue to catch CV.

Oh & the government better produce some evidence to show that 1) they have used this time wisely and 2) that restrictions have an overall positive effect ... not just #savetheNHS (how about all the people who aren't getting the treatment they need because only CV matters atm) ... because a lot of people are getting utterly fucked by this - it is not a long or even medium term solution.

I don't think you can carry on social distancing once lockdown is over. When people back to work the trains and tubes will be heaving again.

I expect the general advice will still be for people to work from home if they can.

Well, I am still holding out hope a vaccine will be produced as the losses that could occur without one could be catastrophic - I know they are not comparible at all as a virus, but think of what the flu would be like without jabs for the vulnerable. But I think the chances of no vaccine are incredibly slim, let’s be honest, there are many, many brilliant minds working on it as I type!

Either way, I don’t think the world will ever be quite the same after all this.