20,000 deaths

[unhappyclap]

I have heard on the news that if 20,000 people die from Coronavirus then they would have essentially done a "good job"...What I am confused about is, who do they expect these 20,000 to be? Will these people be those who are not currently social distancing? Those who are key workers and are still working?

20,000 deaths to me sounds horrific, we are already at over a 1000 which is far too many.

If everyone is at home, following the rules then who are the people getting the virus?

If you don't think that by the end of this we will have this sort of number then you really are not looking at the facts of how virulent this is and how long it will last

@MissCherryCakeyBun I havent really said anything about what I think, I'm just asking about whether the 20,000 people will be people who are not following the rules of social distancing or will they be key workers who need to be out.

The number is going up by around 35% a day.... the worst increase here was 46% but it's been pulled back from that a bit.
This will be around many many months and the more people that don't isolate correctly the longer it will go on the more people will get infected and yes large numbers will die.
I'm sorry if this is not what you want to hear but if we don't start really looking into what's happening and actually doing the right throng the worse it will get

A huge number of people have already contracted the virus. They’re currently incubating and asymptomatic, or in the very early stages and not ill enough to have called an ambulance and been tested, or already in hospital on oxygen or a ventilator. Even if we vaccinated everybody else tomorrow, a large number of deaths are inevitable.

That said, twenty thousand is not an enormous number in a population of seventy-odd million. It’s slightly more than an average year’s flu deaths. Because this winter’s flu season was unusually light it’s not impossible, in the best case scenario, that we could end the year with no noticeable change to the death rate.

Many of them will be people who picked up the virus before social distancing started. And people who are still interacting with symptom free people who contracted it before social distancing.

I didn't mean you OP I meant people in general who really don't seem to realise how deadly this is let alone how contagious

This is making me really anxious. I’m a single parent and terrified of dying and leaving my children alone.

It’s going to be much worse. Italy will have 20,000 deaths in 2 weeks. If they say 20,000 they mean 100,000. That would probable still be a deemed a good result. This will be nothing to how many die in India, Africa and other poverty stricken countries when it takes off there.

The simple fact is that of the 1000 or more to die so far, all of them had access to a ventilator and it didn’t work. Some people won’t be lucky enough to even get the chance.

If I could stay in for 6m I would but I need food and my mum needs help

I would implore all those worried to make a will or at least set your wishes for your children out in writing just in case. I have done that.

Most people won’t die though. Always worth remembering that. Of 100,000 people die, 62.9m live so it’s still a very small chance and the biggest percentage will be older more vulnerable people

I've been working from home for over 2 weeks I have been out 3 times during that time twice to Tesco for a weekly shop and once to take OH to a DRs appointment as he's not allowed to drive currently due to sleep apnoea caused by a nasal tumour. I was very careful and used antibacterial gel and gloves at Tesco and I'm very aware of social distancing I didn't go into the DRs...... I now have a cough, chest pain and tightening on breathing, a breathlessness and upset stomach.....we are self isolating together as I have to help my OH with medication and as it's only us the medical suggestion was that we do it this way so I can support him. So yes despite social isolation and taking precautions it's still possible to catch this bloody virus.

Just to put the numbers context as 20,000 sounds a huge number but 500,000 people die in the UK every year before the coronavirus. There are nearly 70 million people in the UK, 8 million in London alone, I thought death toll numbers would be a lot more to be honest.

Of the twenty thousand op they think over 14000 will be at end of life and chronically ill. So they think the extra deaths will be under 6000.

A horrific number, but in comparison to the 8000 extra deaths from flu each year it’s comparable.

@IHadADreamWhichWasNotAllADream this makes sense.

@MissCherryCakeyBun I'm assuming you are unable to get tested

You realise that end of life and chronically ill are two completely different states of health. I'm chronically ill - I'm a pretty long way from my death bed that. If I die, it fucking counts.

I thought death toll numbers would be a lot more to be honest.

There is a very good chance that, even with the lockdown, they will be much higher.

Of the twenty thousand op they think over 14000 will be at end of life and chronically ill. So they think the extra deaths will be under 6000.

My reading of the data is that 2/3 have significant co-morbidities. That doesn't mean they were necessarily going to die imminently. There seems to be a very large element of chance in the way the virus affects individuals.

This needs to be put in context. Most of those who will sadly pass away will be at or near end of their life due to other health conditions. As a pp said the rest will be a much lower number and put in the context of the total expected deaths in a year is not as significant as it first sounds. It's still not good and we all still need to follow the rules. It won't be the ones who don't follow the rules who will die but those whom they spread it to. Unfortunately if we follow in the path of Italy this will include some front line key workers.

Just to put the numbers context as 20,000 sounds a huge number but 500,000 people die in the UK every year before the coronavirus

I was wondering how many people die a yr so that I compare. How come that 500k doesn't overwhelm the NHS? Because most don't get treatment?

I live in Somerset and nowhere to go and get tested without risking other people if I am positive....or running the risk of catching it if I'm not.
Wether I am positive or not makes not a jot a difference to how I can be treated however as there is no treatment or medication to treat this virus, if i were to get very unwell and need to go into hospital then if I got worse I would need a ventilator. For now I'm fine at home and would rather the tests and reagent chemicals needed to run the tests were saved to use on the NHS frontline and the Army who will be supporting them. I do t need to k ow one way or the other I will just isolate and try and keep healthy

if everyone is at home, following the rules then who are the people getting the virus?

Easy - the people on MN who think the rules don't apply to them and can gallivant around the country doing as they please

The Office of National Statistics provide all the details on how many die and if what and where www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths

You realise that end of life and chronically ill are two completely different states of health

Cmon now. I said end of life and chronically ill. The two are not mutually exclusive. You can be chronically ill and at the end of your life. Why be pedantic and picky. We all know that you can be chronically ill and not at end of life, we aren’t idiots.

@Teaandbiscuitsallday. Please avoid using the “r” word as an insult. I’m sure you didn’t mean to offend, but it really is hurtful to people with learning disabilities and those that love them.

Why do you think? Do you think it could be because you would dump my death into some disregard box, as though I were hanging on by a thread?

How come that 500k doesn't overwhelm the NHS?

Various reasons. Some die at home, some die in hospital, some die of accidents outside -- but the point is they happen gradually over the year, not all at once.

The 20,000 figure is not what they are expecting to happen, I don't think. It is their absolute best case scenario where all the measures that have been put in place work perfectly and have exactly the predicted effects. It is possible, but not likely. But if we "only" have 20,000 then the government would be justified in saying "we did all we could and we got it right".

However, hopefully it will be well below to "not doing anything" figure of 500,000 or whatever it was - or the "wash your hands and stay at home if you have symptoms" figure of 250,000.