Covid-19 compared to other viruses

[Sapphiresunrise]

I apologise sincerely in advance if my post causes any offense or uproar, that is not my intention at all. I am aware several MN posters fall into the high-risk category or have family members who do. People are understandably feeling on edge right now.

Just been doing a lot of reading (i'm no expert obviously). I know this is not the flu, but I read that flu caused roughly 20,000 UK deaths per flu season.
Many people believe that Covid-19 has been around for longer, as do I. If this had never been discovered, would the deaths have just been recorded as flu/pneumonia ?

I am aware that this has a very small chance of death in young, healthy patients. We are seeing them on the news now which is terrifying and tragic . Are these likely to be very rare/exceptional cases ?
Isn't there also a very small chance that young, healthy people can die of the flu ?

A large majority countries which have a temperature of above 35c appear to have a significantly lower number of cases, and death rates are in single figures/zero.

The patients who die. Are all patients' death recorded with Covid-19 as the sole cause, or did they die WITH Covid-19?
I'm sure other people have asked the same questions.

Hopefully I don't sound completely stupid or ignorant, just trying to gain some insight and maybe put people at ease.

That is true. There may already be immunity present and building, people who have had it and recovered or who have had it with no symptoms, the immunity will hopefully increase.

China did widescale community testing. It improved the death rate from a 10% death rate to a 3%. You can see the date the mass tests started coming in.

Closed cases in Italy and spain are running at a 40-50% death rate.

Think death rate from flu about 0.1%
In Italy the cv death rate 10%.

Is that 0.1% from flu you quote based on confirmed cases only ?

Also flu causes a viral type illness and sometimes pneumonia. That's not too serious.
But cv is also called SARS cov2 because it causes respiratory distress syndrome which is extremely serious.

Iran has a lower death rate 18% of closed cases. If you trust their official figures.

And Germany.

Otherwise south korea and hong kong have hit the 3-4% death rate. They both did major lockdowns early and extensive community contact testing.

Not quite what you were asking OP, but I think this infographic is interesting: www.visualcapitalist.com/history-of-pandemics-deadliest/

Also, this webpage compares coronavirus with other outbreaks: about.futurelearn.com/blog/covid-19-how-does-coronavirus-compare-to-other-outbreaks

"Compared to seasonal flu, coronavirus:
• is less widespread
• has resulted in fewer deaths so far
• has a higher CFR (Case Fatality Rate)
• has no vaccine."

Better link to chart: 2oqz471sa19h3vbwa53m33yj-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/DeadliestPandemics-Infographic-17-26Mar2020.jpg

So, by the chart upthread coronavirus is more contagious than flu, so more people will die than do from flu.
Otherwise it wouldn't be more contagious.
Obviously I don't want anyone to die but we are nowhere near the global death rate of flu, and not likely to be.
Can somebody explain this please? More contagious, more deadly, bodies piling up, health services unable to cope, yet nowhere near the WHO annual figures od death from flu.

i've not read all the pages sorry if this has been pointed out.
seasonal flu is spread throughout the year, although a bit more in the winter.
flu cases dribble into the hospital a few people at a time, people usually die of kidney failure and are able to die in peace with less intensive staff/facility utilization. and i've never seen isolation gear used with people succumbing to the effects of the flu.
this virus is having people rock up to hospitals needing specialty equipment and specialty trained staff, all at once or at least massive big waves of them. the patients also seem to remain in intensive care for a long periods.
the small village i lived in (recently moved) of 10,000 people owned 4 ventilators. nearest bigger center 8hr's drive away. helicopter only in daylight.

@fortunecookie yes I know exactly what you mean. I had flu in January. My DD and I were completely debilitated with it but now I have CV and it is completely different. It scares me even though I'm not flat out in bed. I'm walking around but I know I have some lung changes and the symptoms it is causing are making me far more anxious.

"Is that 0.1% from flu you quote based on confirmed cases only ?"

Flu has a 0.01-0.1% death rate of flu in developed countries
(varies depending on the virulence of the strains that year, demographics, health service etc)
^
That % is based on people who die - usually in hospital - out of all those who have been diagnosed with flu,

As with COVID-19, death rate for flu is only calculated as a % of those who were actually diagnosed with the disease.

All those who were never diagnosed, usually because symptoms were too mild to report, are ignored in such calculations.

As with COVID-19, people who die because of the flu usually

• but not always -

are old and / or have underlying conditions such as T2, high BMI, high BP, asthma etc and / or are old

However, most of them would normally have lived for years, decades in some cases
and they are still put down as dying from the flu

Italy's population is about 60 million,
with normally about 640,000 deaths per year,
so on average about 1750 per day.

Coronavirus there is killing 600-700 per day,
so increasing the normal daily death rate by 35-40%

In the Lombardy region, the daily death rate has risen by over 80%,

• and some local mayors have stated that many Coronavirus deaths are being missed, because some of those who died at home were never tested.

Of course this won't last for ever,
but for the months that it does, the health system has been overwhelmed and normal life shattered

Sky News Long Report: The Red Zone (Italy)

Do NOT read if you are feeling fragile

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-inside-the-red-zone-the-desperate-fight-italy-hasnt-seen-since-the-plague-11963915

I don't have UK data, but recent US figures:

20% of hospitalized patients and 12% of the intensive care patients are age 20-44.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/health/coronavirus-young-people.html

Also, New York State Gov. Cuomo press briefingng*^:

• COVID-19 patients average time on ventilator: 11 - 21 days (vs. 3 - 4 days for non-COVID-19 patients).

"We have patients that have been 20 days 30 days on a ventilator.
The longer you are on a ventilator, the more likely you are not going get off a ventilator"

Just because people have multiple underlying conditions does not mean they were close to dying and this illness pushed them over the edge. Many of these people were to all appearances well and would otherwise have lived for years and in the cases of younger victims decades.

That is without even mentioning the impact on people needing health care for any other reason.

Devlesko

China contained it keeping the deathrate low. As only a slow proportion of the population got it and on the whole their medical services weren't overwhelmed so only the most vulnerable died. That 3% who were doomed pretty much as soon as they got the virus. Concern at the tine was raised about some of the "outliers" who died, like the 30-something female with no additional risk factors. They indicated the potential to kill a larger element of the population

Also theres two strains. It has maybe been suggested that the earlier strain might have been less deadly. Its one of the reasons who is so keen to contain and so anti accepting it will spread, the longer its around the longer you give it to mutate into something worse.few of the cases in china featured diarrhoea, (remember the jokes why are people stocking up on diarrhoea its not a symptom) but the now chinese research is finding a correlation between those who died and the small number who suffered digestive disturbances (either complete loss of appetite or diarrhoea). In spain it is considered a symptom.

We're only in the early days of our European outbreaks and we as a continent have failed to contain it quickly .

remember the jokes why are people stocking up on loo roll? diarrhoea its not a symptom
Sorry typo