Why a rates in some areas so high?

[Musicforsmorks]

But yet there doesn’t seem to much dialogue going on about it.

Take Cumbria for instance, it looks shocking. I come from there so have watched from start and it’s rates were comparatively high from the get-go.
I’m in a town right now with my partner which has the same population density of the entirety of Cumbria but only has 11 known cases .

But I can’t find anything in local press or anywhere, it’s as if nobody wants to discuss why.....

Tourism perhaps, but in the entire county, only so much of it would be populated, that won’t include Carlisle, barrow, Workington, etc.

So I’m confused. Hampshire looks bad too, and Sheffield.

Here’s a map, the darker colours are worst affected.
Thoughts?

So I don’t live the UK so can’t comment on Cumbria, but where I am we have a big cluster of cases in a fairly rural area. It was basically a couple from the US who arrived to run some kind of church service before they realised they were sick, it was attended by several hundred people so they spread it all over.

Well the more cases, the faster the growth so it makes sense that some places will have raced ahead whilst others are still in earlier stages. A bit like the rates in different countries compared to each other.

In Hampshire most families have at one person who commutes into London or work/have meetings with someone who commutes out of London. This means they go probably go through Waterloo or Clapham Junction train stations, some of the busy train stations in the country. They then may change to another train/tube line at these stations.

I guess it might be because that is where earlier cases were so it's been around longer or those areas have an older population.

Also, if Cumbria is a holiday destination it might have suffered from lots of visitors before we went into social distancing and lockdown.

What I want to know is how Rutland has escaped with no cases whatsoever!

Cumbria will be seriously struggling with hospitals ☹️

Hssnt Cumbria got a lot of cases because of people going there for weekends, holidays breaks away and for day trips?

Which is the exact reason people should be staying in their main residence. Not travelling to a holiday home?

In my small town we havent had a case, we have in the wider city area, that we are part of. Mainly, I think, because it's a poor town, no one visits here for a trips out and the demographic of people, are those that holiday in (mainly) england and will do one trip in spring/summer. I know no one who went skiing, even schools, or takes winter breaks.

If we get some cases, we are fucked. We have had 2 pubs been done for having lock ins. They have been warned they will be losing their license completely. Theres definitely a good proportion of people that 'will not be told by a tory what they can and cant do' (ex mining town) and those sorts of attitudes about. Not everyone, but a good proportion.

My employer is on the outskirts of town and we are all WFH. Mainly because they were horrified so many people here were not practising social distancing still crowding pubs etc. My employer knows that it's going to be shit, if/when it gets here

On the other hand, because it's a fairly poor town, lots of the decent people are helping the elderly and those that cant get out. Theres plenty being decent.

I am worried about those posturing though and how quickly it will escalate.

Agree about tourism, although when it kicked off Cumbria was in low season, but I doubt that mattered. I can’t recall the exact details but sure the first were around Carlisle (not tourist element) and had returned from Italy......

I’m staying with partner in really depressed area at moment. Really depressed. I think it scored very badly in the deprivation charts - yet everyone is inside, the streets are deserted and people have really stuck by the rules very well.

At home in south lakes people were totally ignoring the advice. It was worrying.
I ended up staying with partner for work reasons, but did not expect to be scared of going home. I’ve been advised to stay put for now.

In fact, in Wigan (greater manchester) the streets are almost deserted. Nobody in Shops, supermarkets well stocked, no queues, no children out playing, nothing. It’s spooky, but I’m glad they’re staying safe.

Hampshire - cruise ships and ferries dock at Southampton and Portsmouth. People who work on ships probably live in the area as well.

What I want to know is how Rutland has escaped with no cases whatsoever

England's smallest county and fairly sparsely populated. It's about the same as the town that I live on the edge of, and we don't have it either as far as I know.

And then Sheffield, of all the northern cities......

I suppose there’s no definitive explanation.

I thought about where I am staying at moment and recalled the original willy wonky film......‘nobody ever goes in, nobody ever goes out’
Maybe that explains the low rates here at moment.

I’m honestly frightened of going home to Cumbria ☹️

Lancaster (edge of Cumbria) and Sheffield may have large numbers of international students at the universities. Morecambe Bay cockling disaster - Chinese community?

I'm in the West Mids, largest hotspot and region outside London.

Birmingham Airport
In one week we had 165k people at Crufts (from 50 countries, inc Italy flying into Bham airport)

Then 220k up the rd at Cheltenham some flying in

And 150 infected passengers fly in off the Diamond cruise ship who were simply told to self isolate.

I read an article about the area around Wolverhampton having quite a lot of cases, they wondered something about past mining / lung damage? I think

In Scotland, once area had higher cases due to a cluster in a nursing home bringing the numbers up

The thing is there are meant to be so many more cases than those recorded which are the more severe ones, so it is difficult to compare...

I know, we have no idea of total cases.

Just had a worrying thought about leap in cases in Wales today - after all the tourism over weekend.....timeframe for symptoms beginning is 2-14 days.

Not seen any Chinese people In Cumbria for a good while now, and outside of Cumbria the ones I have seen may be British?

I live in Portsmouth and there is 29 cases confirmed out of 215,133. Obviously there are probably a lot more that haven't been tested but going by confirmed cases for our area out of the population it's relatively low at the moment and hoping it stays that way.
It would be good to see figures in your area how many are hospitalised or isolating and how many have recovered though.

I'm also originally from Cumbria and my elderly parents still live there in South Lakes. There's a large population of elderly people living in the area, which could account for the high numbers. I'm very afraid for my parents, even though they are in good health for their ages. I live abroad and can't even get to them.

OP,

I picked up on the numbers in Cumbria. They are high in comparison to other areas of the UK.

It was bounced back as second homers. I'm not convinced. The numbers in Cumbria are worrying. I raised in another thread. I'll find the link. It was something to do with someone that had been skiing in Northern Italy returning there.

Sheffield is a big university city with a large population of foreign students. We also have 2 large hospitals so not surprised that numbers are high. They rose very quickly too, suggesting that it was spreading rapidly before anyone realised.

I'm in Cumbria (South Lakes). People seem to be largely obeying instructions, and I don't know anyone personally who has the virus. I'm amazed the Cumbria numbers are so high.

Gwent in South Wales has really high numbers as well.

Hampshire numbers don’t include Southampton or Portsmouth as they are separate cities. Nor does it make particular sense about commuters or Surrey would surely be higher (as it’s closer).