Can someone help me understand why this is such a big deal? Because at the moment I really don’t.

[WellErrr]

Why is the world closing down?
Why is this worse than flu (which thousands of people have, and thousands die from each winter)?
Why the massive response?

I just do not get it at all. The only thing bringing the country to a halt seems to be the fact that everything’s shut and/or banned. Not the virus!?

I just cannot get worked up about it and I feel like I’m living in a parallel universe where everybody else knows something I don’t!?

About just isolating the vulnerable.
Firstly the vulnerable is a much bigger group than people anticipate, so its hard to isolate them and their entire house holds.

You sort of have three groups of people a) the vulnerable, b) those in contact with them, c) general population

In theory you'd isolate all of group A which is a large number and would also encompass all that live with them so whole families where this is a vulnerable child at home. Im going to use an example of an older person but its important to note that its not just the old who are at risk.

However its really hard to truely isolate A. Say they have carers who come 3 times a day, delivery drivers etc. Realistically they'd use shops or some sort of service over the next 3 months. This group b would also likely include any family that have caring responsibilities. Massively this would also include health care workers, as you need desperately for those that are "essential" contacts not to be infectious. This would be a huge group

The problem is all of the group b's cant isolate, and live with group c who are the general population with limited concerns. In my household no one is risky, im healthcare though so if my partner who is a group c got it, then i could pass it on. Most carers etc will be going home to live with their families, kids etc so if the rate is really high amongst the c group then you'll have high rates among b which will then reach group b.
The group b carer thats going shopping for group a person, has to interact with lots of people(even if they lived alone) eg the shop assitants, and others in the shop. This means that they might then carry it foward to the population they care for.

Theres simply too many people in group b to isolate them. Realistically we have to play a numbers game with group b. In order to function our society needs a huge group of both paid and unpaid carers, healthcare staff and support staff. We cant afford for a large percentage of them to be unable to work, theres limited capacity to fill those roles, so if theres a high level of sickness in group b (even if for b its just a cough, or they are simply self isolating) then people in group a will likely to be left without vital care which could be fatal

@WellErrr

This virus is evil and it kills. It doesn't discriminate based on age, everyone gets it, but the symptoms are different for all, it doesn't matter how old or healthy you are, 1 in 20 people at least will need to be hospitalised, needing oxygen.

The world is going crazy trying to stop the spread because it spreads so quickly, there is not sufficient resources to cope with the influx in hospitals and with similar treatment required.

In Italy, the hospitals are like war zones with doctors having to choose who lives and dies, families are living with their dead relatives in their homes because there aren't enough services/people to collect bodies, churches are being used as mortuaries because they are not able to bury or cremate quick enough and family's are unable to go to the funerals because of the risk of further spread. The only thing that has started to ease this situation is lockdown of all residents.

The situation in the hospitals was getting the same in Madrid and the rest of Spain started to follow, lockdown was the only thing that slowed it, it still has not stopped.

The rest of Europe started to see the same issues, so they shutdown and the U.K. is doing the same if not slightly slower.

So basically the world is going crazy and grinding to a halt to save lives and allow the basic needs of society to continue to be met without the massive death toll that was coming if it didn't.

Please read some of the news from reliable sources, try reading the lancet website to understand some of the medical findings from China, if you know anyone with friends or family in Italy or Spain talk to them and you might get a better understanding of what's happening and why.

You're a dick

Whereas you sound just lovely.

Thanks twickers

Its worse than the flu because no one is immune to it.

Its a normal winter and Imagine we have 100 people, where 30 of them are vulnerable or children who are known to be spreaders..
We offer vaccines to the 30 vulnerable and 15 children.
25 of the vulnerable and 12 children have the vaccine.

Flu season arrives. some people are already immune. the 25 vulnerable people dont get it or only get a milder version so dont require hospitalisation. The 5 unvaccinated might get it. though chances are reduced because others have had the vaccine and slow down spread. One of the vulnerable people gets really sick and requires prolonged ICU . They may or may not survive. hospitals can cope with this level.

Now take this year.

Corona arrives. No one has immunity. the 70 healthy people/children may get it. In this population is can be mild to moderate though some will require hospitalisation, but their chances of recovery are good.
Of the 30 vulnerable people 25 get it 10 require ICU and the rest require prolonged period of hospitalisation. Thats a 10 times bigger impact on ICU's

We know corona is 4 to 5 times more infectious than normal flu so spreads rapidly. It is infectious prior to people showing symptoms so they are unaware they are spreading it. It kills more people than Flu (flu 0.1 to 0.2% , corona 2 % best case scenario).

So we have a lot of people getting sick all at the same time and requiring hospital care/ICU. We do not have the staff or equipment to deal with the magnitutde of patients requiring treatment and this becomes the point that people who may have survived now will not.

This is why there is drastic measures being taken. If we dont take measures, estimates are that half a million people could die. With measures in place they hope to reduce that to under 20.000

Thats why governments are doing everything they can to reduce the number of people who get sick in a short time period.

OP coronavirus is both quite infectious and also new, so no one has immunity. This means it can spread to lots of people really quickly. Like you say, many people will be fine and experience a short, mild illness. A percentage of people will experience a much worse, life threatening illness. Because it's new and spreading quickly, thousands and thousands of people can get it all once. Even if a small percentage of those people need ventilators or ICU care, it'll add up to a lot of people needing the extra care just due to the sheer numbers involved. We don't have enough ICU beds or ventilators to cope with a sudden massive influx of patients, especially given many of them are already taken up by poorly people who don't have coronavirus. Hence things are shutting down to try and slow it so you don't have thousands of people needing ventilation all at once.

In years to come coronavirus will be like the flu, it'll kill some number of people every year but because much of the population will be immune, it won't make thousands of people sick all at once and hospital systems will be able to cope more easily.

I'd be interested to know your thoughts on that explanation and if it affects your view at all?

Have a look at the stats from public health England:
www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ae5dda8f86814ae99dde905d2a9070ae

Poorly people are struggling to recover (my mum being one, she’s on a local coronavirus ward now). There will be a lot of people in hospital for a long time with more and more people being added to the wards daily. The lock down is about limiting the rate at which people are added to the wards so that the hospital can manage them. It’s basic maths.

Of the serious cases in france, half are under 60 - on the news today. china/one area of china (not sure which) has no new cases - their strategy was strict isolation and everyone taking their temperature daily to inform the authorities about likely virus activity.

There’s an article in the Guardian today, about how undertakers in the worst hit areas of Italy are coping.

One said they’d had 600 burials lately, over a time period were they would normally have 120. So five times the usual number.

Are you bothering to read any of this OP or taking any of it on board? I imagine you could count on one hand the amount of wilfully ignorant, 'I'm too cool to panic' types on one hand

You literally have no idea if she’s read it or not. Just needless passive aggression. Roll your neck in will you. 🙄

Serious question, OP: do you still feel this isn't such a big deal and isn't worth getting worked up about now that a London hospital has run out of intensive care beds?

Bump for @WellErrr

Have you changed your mind yet, @WellErrr?

Suprised @WellErrr hasn’t come back, according to other posts they were a student at a hospital and wished they could have stayed on to help out colleagues. Madness!

It is not an OP that aged well rather rapidly