What's the point in testing?

[Dongdingdong]

Why is everybody placing such an emphasis on the need to test everyone? If you have a fever and a cough then you almost certainly have this virus - in which case you should stay at home and self isolate for 7 or 14 days depending on the circumstances.

Of course, if we were testing everybody then the death rate (number of deaths as a proportion of people who have the virus) would be massively reduced.

However, testing millions of people is surely a huge waste of NHS resources when staff need to focus on those who are actually sick and in need of urgent treatment.

Also, how would it work in practice - would we all have to go to testing points (thereby increasing the risk of infection) or would testing kits be sent to people's homes?

Furthermore, if someone tests negative then they could easily contract the virus a week later and test positive - so how often do you repeat the test?

AIBU?

@metaldog would you say it’s fair to presume that most people have symptoms that wouldn’t usually stop them going about their daily lives though?

I would get tested in a heart beat because I’ve had a weirdly dry mouth and throat, rib possibly lung pain and a dodgy stomach as well as feeling like I could sleep for England. I feel wiped out climbing the stairs for instance. But I’ve had no cough or fever as yet. It could be quite literally anything including anxiety/stress induced.

As it is I’m at home with dd(4) because she was off colour last Friday with a very slight fever, lethargy and very occasional cough but according to the government I’m fine to be at work (in a hospital) and using the nursery and public transport. I would usually.

My partner and friends think I’m wrong - I don’t but I’m not reassured we’ve had it either.

All for the sake of a test.

As for the benefits of testing let’s see:

There is only one proven way to minimise unnecessary loss of life, see attached photo from the WHO-China joint mission on COVID 19 and that method includes testing.

Without it there will be unnecessary loss of life.

The UK is currently climbing the total deaths ‘leaderboard’, from 9th place to 8th and rapidly moving towards 7th place overtaking South Korea in the process.

Our country justifies this by saying we have over 20,000 cases already. The only evidence for these 20,000 cases is modelling. If I am right then the modelling will always keep pace with the UK total deaths to “prove” the 1% case fatality rate to which Chris Whitty is so wedded.

If we were testing in the community we would know in advance which hospital’s needed the most resources because we could track emerging clusters. We could respond proactively rather than only being able to respond when a flood of cases turn up. We could use this information to see areas where there was sufficient slack to be able to deal with other types types of emergency, we could create smaller lockdowns essentially proving a buffer for example.

In essence we would be fighting with our eyes open rather than blindfolded.

If our hospitals are overrun, which is much more likely to occur when we are relying on guess work rather than hard facts, then people will start dying in the community without palliative care.

Let’s be clear, this means they will slowly drown in their own fluids. Not drown quickly like a person falling into a lake, but slowly, over days. So wake the fuck up. Our country should be taking every conceivable measure to ensure that doesn’t happen and the most simple and basic of these is to “test, test, test” (quote from Dr Tedros).

In my opinion the only reason we have stopped testing is because we never had the capacity to test more than 2000 cases a day. So when cases went up, we had to triage, which means hospitals only.

All of this flimflam about testing being pointless is because the government is too afraid to admit that they can’t test everyone that needs testing. I believe this to be the case because politicians have spoken about gearing up to be able to test more - well there’s no need to waste resources in that way if you genuinely don’t think testing has a benefit.

Let’s be clear, this means they will slowly drown in their own fluids. Not drown quickly like a person falling into a lake, but slowly, over days. So wake the fuck up.

That's how it felt like this weekend. I was apparently 'breathing normally' because my lips hadn't turned blue. The reality was I was managing to force myself to stay awake and keep breathing short breaths, my windpipe was blocked so I could just about breathe in but couldn't breathe out.

My DH helped me with decongestants, taking advice from the paramedics. That led to so much mucus coming out. I'd have drowned in it otherwise. If I'd been living alone (like my DM is, she's 80 and I'm worried about her) or if I'd been older, I don't know how I would have got through that.

@Cornettoninja

Here’s the infographic from the WHO.

As you can see about 40% have mild symptoms without pneumonia,

about 40% have “mild” pneumonia (although that will be on a spectrum heading towards severe and most people will know about it)

and then the other 20% or so are severe and critical.

So yes, I think there is enough evidence to show that some people would take their usual flu type meds (to reduce the almost universal fever) and get on with their days.

Personally, as an adult, I will not be taking antipyretics precisely to ensure my immune system is allowed to carry out the critical function of raising my temperature (Dr John Campbell explains this very well in some of his videos).

But if people did take medications to get on with their days as normal they would become vectors and pass the virus onto other people, some of whom will become severely ill. It comes down to your own feelings of personal responsibility and empathy, of understanding that it’s not just about you, it’s about protecting older and vulnerable people.

Of course if we had testing then confirmed cases, once well, could then become a much needed support network. Unfortunately I am not convinced that 7 days is enough time to ensure you are no longer a potential vector for spreading COVID 19.

Then again the government approach only seems concerned with flattening the curve (well barely even that) and is not about grinding cases to a halt, like China, Singapore and even South Korea.

@Mittens030869

I’m so sorry you’ve experienced this, it must have been extremely frightening - I hope you are now over the worst and on the road to recovery.

This is the main problem with everyone isolating at home as no one knows for sure which mild cases will progress to serious/critical and when to call for help so that you are neither overburdening the NHS by calling too soon nor risking your own health.

To isolate patients at home safely people should be tested and, if positive, issued with a small finger pulse oximeter.

Obviously this could only work if our government had increased stocks of pulse oximeters along with a concurrent strategy to aggressively test, contact trace, quarantine contacts and isolate positive cases to minimise COVID 19 spread, otherwise there wouldn’t be enough pulse oximeters.

If the government had listened to the WHO as soon as their report came out (and they said prepare now) then the request for companies to start making respirators could have been issued earlier, more tests could have been developed in conjunction with private companies earlier, less time lost to the inevitable public phase of denial and ‘it’s just flu’ and far less spread would have occurred around our country.

@MetalDog Thank you. Yes I really do appear to be on the mend now. I'm still groggy but it's the normal recovery from a virus now. The problem is, because I'm still coughing and getting rid of mucus, it means our family is self-isolating.

My experience has made very worried about my DM. Yes she's in touch with me every day, but we live on the other side of Leeds from her so there's a limit to what we could do if she were to become seriously ill. (She also catches every infection going round.).

And obviously there are many people in her situation (including my MIL). It wouldn't necessarily be a lot easy for a younger person either.if they became ill living alone.

Thanks @MetalDog. I completely agree with you (fancy a revolution and we’ll put you in charge? ).

I hate how this is being handled. It doesn’t need panic but it does not realism and sensible precautions which are just have no backing. It’s so frustrating watching other countries proactively looking to protect their citizens and here behaving like it’ll all blow over. I suppose it will blow over, but there’s an hard way and a harder way...

@Mittens030869

Exactly - young people do have a very good chance of overcoming even the moderate (with mild pneumonia) level of COVID 19 but how will an elderly person on there own, undiagnosed, who suddenly deteriorates even be able to call for help?

@Cornettoninja

It will have to be a virtual revolution and I’m no leader, just someone who considers all the available evidence and uses their common sense.

All our country needed to do was learn from those who had already experienced the virus (and from the WHO who checked what they were saying) and who therefore had the most up to date information.

But no, we have to show off our new found independence, cover up the decimation of our health services, our clear lack of pandemic preparedness and sacrifice some of the dead weight of pensioners along the way (win win guys!). And I’m not being political about this, New Labour helped us get to this point and GC convinced very few.

If the government is not going to put us in an official lockdown then they need to test.

Well, as of 13th March we'd carried out the fifth most tests in the world apparently - the only countries who've tested more people are China, South Korea, Italy and Russia.

According to the 'latest figures from public health authorities on the spread of Covid-19 in the United Kingdom,' there is ONE case in my area as of today.

I know two people who had COVID-19 confirmed over a week ago who live close by.

The figures are absolutely meaningless.