Will Coronavirus get as big as swine flu?

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I’ve just been looking online at other pandemics swine flu killed over 200,00 people. Do we think Coronavirus will do the same?

Personally I’m not worried for myself I’m relatively young, 29. No health conditions but I’m concerned for the vulnerable people.

I think it will likely be worse unfortunately, there weren't as many measures in place for that outbreak as we are seeing today, countries on lock down etc. This is unprecedented and I think it's possibly being underplayed if anything to try keep some semblance of calm before the storm..

I agree, it’s going to be worse. Swine flu didn’t see all of the precautions that this is. There’s things were not being told I think. They don’t take these measures for nothing. I’m also 29 and as far as I know no underlying health issues, but I’m concerned for vulnerable relatives, for my baby and even for myself as we don’t know enough yet to know for sure it won’t kill the young and healthy.

It will be far worse

Far worse.

This will be massively bigger than swine flu!

Swine Flu had targeted medications relatively quickly in Tamiflu - people really hung on to that. We don’t seem to have much in the way of vaccine for a long time,

Swine flu infected about a billion people globally but for most people was very mild and the death rate was very very low (hundredths of one percent).

Coronavirus will be as big, but the death rate is much higher. So much worse overall.

The only (slight) positive is that the young are mostly ok, so in developing countries, with weaker health systems, there are also less elderly and at-risk people. So they may see lower death rates in Africa etc compared to Europe. At least that is my hope and prayer.

I also have a young baby, I think I’m burying my head in the sand thinking it’s not targeting kids. I’d rather not think of that part of it yet

Well if we take the lower estimates of a 1% death rate and half the population catching it...that's over 330,000 ppl right there. In the uk alone. Assuming pop if 67 millionish.

But 3.5%ish seemed to be fairly common death rate for it a bit back (dunno if that's changed yet? Italy atm?). Plus they say up to 80% of ppl could get it...(worst case)

To put things into perspective, we lost around the million mark in ww1. I hope we dont lose that many again.

This is way beyond swine flu. What we are seeing now is only early days.

I'm not particularly worried for me, and I'm sure the planet is enjoying the reduced pollution levels, but I do worry about those less fortunate than me. People will lose jobs, businesses will collapse, people will die and those with family abroad will struggle immensely if anything happened (deaths, need for care, etc).

It's going to take its toll on humanity, both physically and mentally.

Baba will be fine though!

Sorry my first stat was for 0.5%

Am I reading this right - the current death rate is 8%?

I wonder what % of the U.K. is considered vulnerable?

Someone said it was 7% in italy the other day but I'm not sure about that source. Seems like it's creeping up though for sure :/

Swine flu had a vaccine by the time of the second peak.

@GlitteryFluff is that not hospitalised cases? Most cases will go undetected.

It’s not though is it?

Most countries are testing those who end up in hospital. There could be up to ten fold of people who have it and we’d never know, so the proportion of dead is far less.

Figures here. And even these known cases were most likely ones that sought medical help of some kind.

Don't get me wrong. It's very worrying but it's not an 8% death rate in the general population

If it winds up being 8% of 80% of the population then that's over 4 million. If my maths are correct. Which they may not be as I'm shit at math xD

I dont think well get it that bad though. But maybe half...

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-symptoms

80.9% of infections are mild (with flu-like symptoms) and can recover at home.
13.8% are severe, developing severe diseases including pneumonia and shortness of breath.
4.7% as critical and can include: respiratory failure, septic shock, and multi-organ failure.
in about 2% of reported cases the virus is fatal.
Risk of death increases the older you are.
Relatively few cases are seen among children.

These are the stats from China, it is thought that the death rate will be about 1%
Young children seem to be little affected
The real problem is those 4.7% needing help with breathing whilst recovering. Is the NHS up to it.

I think Covid-19 could have the potential to decimate populations in developing countries as a lot of people smoke. In India diabetes, high bp and cvd (all risk factors) are common even amongst the under 30s. So I think long term as travel restrictions relax in Asia and Europe we may see more deaths.

They suspect they the real numbers might be ten fold since many people seem to have it asymptotically and many wouldn’t even notice it as a cold. That pulls the death rate down to well below one percent.

It will creep up and also categories 2 deaths with people dying from the non related covid death where people can't get help.

It will creep up. I wonder if they’ll negate it by factoring in anticipated annual deaths of those over a certain age to offset.